P&F Chart School

Sort by newest Sort by date
RPM said:
James:

Do you why there is such difference between $SPX and SPY on the P&F charts? TIA
Click to expand...

You ask an interesting question.

I'll try and write something up in answer, and post it tonight in this thread:

http://www.tsptalk.com/mb/showthread.php?t=3493

The sum of your question comes down to "Why don't ETF's perform exactly in line with the indexes they are supposed to represent?"

And that answer will take more than I can do here.

See you over on that thread later tonight.
 
Yep- it will have to dip down below the magic 1340 in order to get that last "O" to appear.

Either today, or Monday, would be a good timeframe for it to happen.

Remember, in P&F charting, timeframes have NO impact whatsoever on the chart. It could be today, it could be two weeks from now. What DOES seem to work in this theory is the numbers, not the times. It's "two dimensional" tracking.

But isn't it interesting, techincally, to watch how it works?
 
That 1340 number is holding up pretty well, no? Interesting how we are RIGHT on the cusp of that puppy, and it hasn't broken yet.
 
It broke below 1339 at 1:30 pm. What does it mean when S&P500 breaks 1340 and another O is added? Watch out for further weakness, or its next move is back up, next week, in two weeks, or next month?
 
OK- Bingo. We got the 1340 broken, and the "O" has appeared:


Now, what SHOULD happen, is that we can roll around here a little bit, but the 1330 floor underneath us is solid at steel. Since we're still above that blue "Bullish Support Line", we MAY spend a day or two in the 1330-1340 range, BUT-- then we should head back up. IF and when we do, the next cycle up will be to the 1390-1400 range. That assumes we go up.​

That's IF the bullish support line holds. I tend to think it will, only because we're in an up-slope line, and because although the news isn't very pleaseant these days, we seem to get money flowing back in each time we've gotten to the bottom of these waves for the last couple times.​

The fact that we got a "high pole warning" on April 9th means that we COULD be in for some trouble here, though. We'll just have to wait and see how it works out.​

Our make-believe "PF Chart C" account in the autotracker made the move to safety yesterday. We'll continue to watch now and see what happens over the longer term.​

Isn't this fun?​
 
BY all accounts-if you subscribe to the theroy that we're still in the up cycle here, then the floor should stay above the blue "bullish support line".

That means we COULD fall as low as 1320, and still remain in the upward trend. A fall below 1320 and we could get the break of the bullish support line. (I am not exaclty sure here is the magic number is 1320 or 1310 to break downward the bullish support line, it' s kind of hard to tell here in this graphic:


However, the general trend is still showing that we should not expect lower than a 1330, so for now, that remains the low side target on this wave.

We'll just have to wait and see what happens.

I'm still in, waiting to see if the blue bullish support line is penetrated. If not, then we should go back north very shortly. If it does get penetrated to the downside, then we have a long way down, and I will bail out.

Let's see how the day goes.

My money is riding (literally) on the bottom being at the 1330 level. We'll see.​
 
Yep- we bounced down to 1328.49, and then came right back up above the 1330 level.

We'll see what that means later today.

The move below 1330 caused the new "O" to appear-


We're still good for the turnaround shortly, PROVIDED that there is no new bad news as an outside driver.​

Remember- this thing works most of the time- except that outside forces can and do drive changes in direction.​

I'm still banking on the 1320 will hold, and we'll go back up. In fact, that 1330 has been a pretty solid resistance force, except for that one little blip this morning.​

We'll see how it pans out.​
 
Yep - now here is where it gets very interesting.

Take a look at two possible scenarios from here on out.

The first is this:

Scenario #1: IF we are truely still in a bear market, then the index will rise only enough to get the next row of "X"s, which should cap out around 1360 to 1370 range, and then we head back down.

I've penciled in an orange "Bearish resistance line" that would then officially form, and we continue to head downward. This is labled as possiblity #1.


However, I think a MORE likely scenario is possibility #2.

Secnario #2: IF, (and only if) we are going to continue in a positive direction, THEN, we will very shortly break above 1360, and keep going higher. The chart shows that IF we truely hit bottom a couple weeks ago, and IF we are now headed higher for the future, THEN we have a nice big upturn coming in over the near future. Under Scenario #2, then we have a 1390 to 1400 range well within site, before we get the next breather.

My gut tells me we are MUCH MORE likely to be experiencing possibility #2 than possibility #1.

I say that because EVEN WITH all the negative news out there, there seems to be an awful lot of money on the sidelines, ready to jump in, every time we get even a hint that things are not so bad after all.

True, it doesn't really make a lot of sense, what with the amount of money evaporating with the mortgage meltdown, etc., etc.

Why then do I think this?

Personally, I think we're past the April 15th slaughter- where lots of people take money out of the market prior to Tax day, knowing that they have to use that money to pay their taxes.

Me? I'm fine this year. I did my taxes over the weekend, and, because of some things I did last year, I will end up getting a healthier refund than I was expecting.

So some of that money that I have sitting in "emergency standby" mode, just in the unlikely event that I had an unexpectedly high tax bill, - well, that money is now free to be plugged into the market. And it will be. And I think there are others out there like me. (Injection of money to market #1).

And when I get that refund in a couple weeks, (Injection #2), I may take a bit of that money and invest it. That will be a tick up perhaps three or four weeks from now.

And then, when the "stimulus check" for me arrives in May-- a few weeks after than- well, to me, that looks like injection of money #3, and it only looks like a much higher May and June ahead.

That's my 2 cents worth, anyway.
 
Now comes the critical time.

We've reached 1360- so far, so good. And that makes the next row of "X"s appear.

However- this is why we're at a critical juncture-

As I said this morning- if we are truely in a recovery phase, then the market will continue upwards (even though we may get a slight pullback tomorrow, as we went up very quick and need a small rest),

--OR---

If we're NOT in a recovery phase, then this was just a quick runup before a major downturn.

If the 1360 holds- then our next stop up for a pause is in the 1390 to 1400 range.

But if we're truely in a bear market, then we're about to head STRAIGHT DOWN and into the toilet, breaking the bullish support line underneath, and tanking downward significantly.

My money is still on a recovery- as I outlined this morning. I see at least three new waves of money about to flow into the market (Wave #1 started to come in today).

So be especially on guard - and be ready to be nimble- pay VERY CLOSE ATTENTION over the next couple days, and if it looks like things head south (which COULD very well happen- especially since Oil hit $115 today), then things could go very bad, very quick, and we'll want to jump to the sidelines quickly.

I'm in --to win.

Let's keep our fingers crossed.​
 
Yesterday's action was just as I expected- a little consolidation for the A.M., and ended up just a smidge higher for the day. One more postive sign that we continue in the upswing, and have thrown off the nay-sayers.

I talked a couple days ago about the next leg up here. All signs continue to point to this wave reaching higher- specifically, I'm thinking into the 1390 to 1400 range, before we take another pause and fall back a little.

Below, I've penciled in where I think today --and maybe Monday--will lead. I've penciled in three more "X"s in Orange. That would take us up to the 1390 level. It's possible we'll even break a fourth "X", to 1400, but I am not as sure about that. Anyway, the reason I say 1390 is, as before, the charts have been pretty dog-gone consistant lately, and the 1390 range is where the sloping uptick is taking us.

Anyway- here is the chart- with the three new ORANGE predicted "X"s that I think will appear shortly.


I feel about 75% or better sure that we'll get that 1390 level shortly. Not quite as sure about 1400, although I think we're probably 50/50 on that.

Anyway, that's what my crystal ball --and the P&F chart-- is saying to me this morning. Your mileage can vary, I have been wrong many times, and we really won't know until the markets digest all the news of the day.

P.S.- watch out for earthquakes in the mid-west. You NEVER know when some piece of news you weren't expecting to see falls out of the sky, or wells up from below, and "shakes" the market when you least expect it. Who knows- we could have the single biggest down-day in Dow history, if just one or two significant things shake up things. After all- its PEOPLE who buy and sell shares, and PEOPLE can be the MOST unpredictable things in the end.
'​
 
James48843 said:
P.S.- watch out for earthquakes in the mid-west.
Click to expand...


I own a nice sized home (and please forgive me if it sounds like I'm bragging) - but it would really take a powerful force to even remotely move it.

I live where tornados are fairly common and still long to see one - always hoping when a warning sounds on our alert system or on the radio that I can find a spot to watch it.

Well this morning I woke to actually feeling the foundations of my house moving - now that means the whole house - so of course I'm thinking whoa "IT HAS TO BE..." But there wasn't the "Train sounding wind" and it only lasted for a few seconds - so I thought Whew!! it must have been just the outer edge as it bounced along it's path. So my wife asked if I felt anything this morning and was relieved it was not her imagination. Then as soon as I'm driving to work the radio let me know what happended.

WELL ENOUGH - NOTHING DAMAGED AND I'M GLAD TO HAVE HAD THE EXPERIENCE.

Thanks for your guidance my friend - the extra money feels good; I still have all the confidence in the world I'll end the year with gains.
 
OK- so we got the extra "X" today. I was thinking we would, but we got it so early, that I think we're going to eek out one more "X" out of the deal before we pause.

My prediction is we'll hold this level today, and maybe even squeek out one more "X", above the 1400 level, either today, or Monday.

And then, it will be time for a rest. I am seriously considering making a move before noon on Monday to capture the gains and hold it a few days. I have already made one in and out move this month. I have said I am trying as hard as I can to keep to the "two move per month" ideal of Tracey Ray, and I did so last month. I scalped a good 1.6% gain earlier this month doing the in-and-out over two days, but this one is looking much more like a better candidate to take the profits, so I MAY try and do it again with a quick out and then back in next week.

We'll have to wait until Monday morning to see how the stars are lining up- but my gut is saying Monday higher still, (by a fraction), and then lower on tuesday, etc, as profit takers move in. We'll see. the other possibility is to buy up some SDS on Monday in my brokerage account, and do it that way as well. Not sure yet, but the pickings look pretty good.

As I said before- now that we are past the April 15th tax day deadline, more money will be flowing into the markets, so that 1510 price target (PRICE OBJECTIVE- orP.O.) is not too far away over the course of the next month or so. At least that is what I am thinking, but we should have some good see-saw action between now and then.

here is the chart, as of 12:45. I'm done with lunch, and back to work- but it sure seems to be predictable with the P&F chart backing, no?

I've drawn in an overhead line-just to show where the trend is- that we should hit possibly one more "X" today or monday, and then we'll be ready to come back down a bit. The trend is your friend, and we've seen the bullish support line hold several times now, so I am thinking we're going to get the wave next week (down a little, and then back up again).​

See ya.​
 
James48843 said:
I am seriously considering making a move before noon on Monday to capture the gains and hold it a few days.
Click to expand...

I've been playing between 40C & 60C with the rest in G for the entire month. I've been able to keep some nice gains with limited risk.

This little piggy is packing up his marbles and going home to G. I'd rather hold on to my gains for the month and wait for a good re-entry point. It seems the Media has had a positive bias lately. I'm not convienced the market has been acting rational. I just have to believe oil and gas prices will trickle down. :cool:
 
Days ends with this:

Triple top breakout.

Triple Top Breakout
View attachment 3759
Triple Top Breakout
A triple top breakout is similar to a double top breakout except that the price at which the breakout occurred is a price that the chart retraced from two times before. This implies that the price level is a more significant area of resistance (area where sellers are willing to sell the stock and create supply that outstrips demand) than what is seen on a double top. The breakout above this level implies that the buyers are now creating more demand than there is supply and therefore the prices are breaking out.
Click to expand...

Very interesting. I think we'll see higher on Monday, so I am hanging on, although I am preparing to bail - you may have noticed on the conventional charts, a slight gap up this morning- meaning that we'll soon be back here to retrace and fill in the gap- I think it' likely we'll pop up a few more points on Monday, and then later in the week drift back down into that 1350-1360 range to fill in the gap.

Got my fingers crossed, anyway- I'm in till at least Monday- we'll see how it goes then.
 
Last edited:
Got my fingers crossed, anyway- I'm in till at least Monday- we'll see how it goes then.
Click to expand...

thanks for the information. :)
I wish you well with the early part of the week. I moved Friday AM and locked in the gains, in anticipation of a rough start to next week.
 
Last edited by a moderator:
Here is my take-

We closed today at 1397 and change. that's pretty darn good for the week. We fell back a little earlier this week, but today, being a friday, the market decided it wanted to sneak up and retest that area.


We're still showing a gap down around 1364 or so. The market TRIED to go down and fill in that gap, but it didn't make it down that far on the first attempt. Fine- that 's ok.​

And if I were to take a random guess, I would probably say that that gap IS going to get filled in sometime, the question is when. We've seen recent similar moves where it took two, or even three cycles between lowers and highers for gaps to get filled in, and then move again. I missed the timing of the first attempt down, but I think I hit it better today for a possible second drift down I anticipate next week.​

We dropped back earlier this week and ALMOST made it down to the gap at 1364, but we didn't make it.​

Then we bounced right back up again,​

That bouce was proof that there is lots of money on the sidelines that is more interested in proving the momentum has changed, rather than the money on the sideline actually taking news and reports into account.​

Is that money "real money?" Yes, but only to a little extent. The "REAL money" is probably looking at these waves and licking it's chops and the possiblity to make money.​

After all, oil spiked up all week, we had an oil tanker attacked one day, and the U.S. fire on an Iranian vessle another day. Syria's nukes were in the news, the economy is stumbing, the price of gas jumped a quarter over the last three weeks. You would figure that at SOME point, the market would take notice, and dump. But so far, people are more anticipating that the bottom has been seen, and that all is well in Flyover country. So a lot of little people on the sidelines have begun buying back in. The "real money" is being cautious though- and looking for the right opportunities. Will they see them this week?​

I think what were seeing is just a temp uptick right now- that we WILL come back and fill in the 1364 gap- but more importantly, although the conventional chart looks like a coiled spring to me about to go north, I really think (perhaps 60%) that we;'ll have at least one more cooling off and down a little, before the spring up happens.​

We'll see.​

My bet is- Monday slightly higher, then tuesday, and maybe wednesday will be lower.

I am hoping a Tuesday buying opportunity will present itself- for one last "hurrah" before the new limits take affect.​
Thrity days in April- . Which means I'd have to place a buy before noon on Tuesday next week, if I wanted to enter the month of May INVESTED rather than on the sidelines trying to take a quick snippet.
It's possible it will go either way- but I am thinking higher monday, then down Tuesday. I'm going to try and clip a little before we enter May.

This is all just Opnion only- not investment advice. Make your own decisions, educate youself.​

Education - because a mind is a terrible thing to waste.....​
 
Last edited:
You must log in or register to reply here.

Similar threads

tsptalk
  • Article Article
TSP Talk - Holiday week follows 5-day win streak
Replies
1
Views
176
exnavyew
exnavyew
tsptalk
  • Article Article
TSP Talk - Despite some choppy action, the bulls remain in control
Replies
0
Views
122
tsptalk
tsptalk
tsptalk
  • Article Article
TSP Talk - Something big is brewing - good or bad?
Replies
5
Views
221
robo
robo
tsptalk
  • Article Article
TSP Talk - Has the mid-month pullback begun?
Replies
1
Views
134
TommyIV
TommyIV
tsptalk
  • Article Article
TSP Talk - The Grinch has taken over the Santa Claus rally
Replies
0
Views
109
tsptalk
tsptalk
Back
Top