OK- enough of the fireworks- I just used up my one-single trade this month on a hunch that I could pick off a tiny win on an up "F" day, and I did it. There was nothing saying that I should have moved my own account COB thursday to "F", the only thing that told me to do so was a little voice that I listened to, not the chart. I popped off an extra fraction from the "F" fund action, and am now back in "C", having moved back in on Friday- sorry for the sidetrack out there, but I got to catch them when I can, you know?
Anyway, here is where we are back on the PF Chart for C:
This is a classic formation here. We got a little more tweak out of the C fund on Friday, enought to form a sixth "X" above the line (shown here in green)
That is a good, solid push up. And six up "X" squares means we increased momentum, rather than decreasing mometum. That is another sign that we are again in a strong upwave here, and it very well may be that we've broken the back of that bear that has been biting us for months.
What I would expect from here is perhaps a stronger day on Monday, with a repeat above that 1380 figure that caused the sixth up "X" to appear, followed very, very soon by some relief on a down wave. We've gotten a lot of upside over the last week, and the market soon will need a breather to take it all in. Whether the down mark comes monday (I would doubt that, it's possible of course, but the signs are showing continued strength, so I am thinking right now probably a 60% possibility or more of a positive day Monday), followed soon after by a releif drop.
When the drop comes, however, it will not be a whole lot on the down side. The indicators now are showing that when we go for the down side here, it looks a lot like we're only going to fall down to the 1350-1340 range. (I placed an orange (forecast) "O" where I think the retracement will come =down to the 1340 level).
The next question is when will we get there- back down to the 1340 range. That's a tough question. We've just run a number of days to the upside, and there appears to continue to be a lot of money on the sidelines ready to move in, as shown by the "S" strength last week. So it maybe tuesday or wednesday this week when we let off a little steam, or then again, maybe not. (See how non-committal I am? I could be a TV weatherman with forecasts like that, no? ) . When we head down, it looks to me like we will get just three "O"S down this cycle. With six up "X"s now, and forecasting three "O"s shortly ahead, all signs continue to point to a higher future here. The only thing that is going to break that is if we get some really bad unexpected news from somewhere. Remember, the charts are pretty good indicators, right up until some outside influence screws something up. But we tossed aside a poor jobs report on Friday and kept on going. That tells me the news that will change this cycle will have to be pretty dog gone bad to realy have an impact.
Anyway- this is what my gut is telling me today. Monday, probably a slight tick higher, followed this week by letting off a small amount of steam. Absolutely no reason to bail out is indicated if you are in for the longer term- these cycles appear to be getting pretty regular.
IF I hadn't blown my one trade for the month already, I think I MIGHT think about trying to move to the sidelines Monday, and hope for a slide back down later in the week to buy back in. As it is, however, it's not a clear enough opportunity for me now, so I'll sit tight in "C" now, and enjoy the ride.
That's it for today. Enjoy.
