P&F Chart School

[Guest2]

Today should be the day for a little breather.

Thanks for all your hard work James!

 

[James48843]

it's actually holding up better than I thought it would. I figured we'd be about 5 to 8 points lower than we are about now, at least. I still think we may run down a tad more, but probably not much. I think an hour from now money will start flowing back in, and we'll only have about half the loss for the day that we have now.

Im thinking we'll finish slightly lower for the day today, maybe even finish tomorrow in the 1325 range-and then next week, provided there is any good news at all out there- we go back up again. We need to get the three "O"s to form here- which means we need to get below 1330, before we head back up again. We're not there just quite yet.

We'll see how it works out.

 

[James48843]

Today's read:

Market is holding up exaclty as expected. Yesterday I said we'd dip below 1330 , and need to wallow around a bit between 1320 and maybe even touch below 1320 before we head back north again. We touched the 1330 mark this morning. I HOPE we drop to 1325 today, so we can get it out of the our system, and start moving north again. But the market is showing a LOT of strength now- so we might have hit the low when we have hit the 1330 mark. Not sure yet.

Here is the chart for this morning, and I expect we may got just a tad lower, but everything continues to tell me that next week is going to be a full recovery and headed north once again once we get through this slight breather period.

View attachment 3606​

I've put a little orange arrow in showing where I think we need to go to get the "O"S, to appear, that will single the uptick is ready to start. We have to get below 1330 for them to appear, and we haven't got that yet, at least not as of 10:45 this morning.​

 

[Removed1]

Hi James,
I am still learning,what is the relation of TYX and the F (or agg),one time 350Z explained if TNX goes up,agg (F) will go down or vice versa and how about TYX??TIA
appreciate your analysis and contribution to the board.TIA

 

[James48843]

OK- here we go. tomorrow will be the good day- and here's what is going to happen.

Tomorrow morning, we'll have a dip in the first hour. I say that because we STILL did not get the "O"s to appear today- we need to drop below 1320 for those "O"s to show up, and that should happen in the morning tomorrow.

Here is the chart from today- with a close at 1325.76 we ALMOST made it to the stage of "O"s appearing, but no cigar today.

View attachment 3623​

Again, what this is REALLY telling us, is there is a WHOLE LOT of strength out there ready to come back into the market- it's not been enough to get the "O"s to appear, so when it does tomorrow moring, we're at the place we need to be to build the foundation to start moving back up.​

I could be wrong, but as of 11 pm. estern time- this is my thought-​

Tomorrow, within the first two hours, we'll break below the 1320 level, and that will mark the appearance of those "O"s. that's where those "O's will appear by the orange line I have drawn, and that's what we need to get in order to turn things around and head north.​

Provided that there isn't any adverse news tomorrow (and that is probably the one thing that could derail this), then by afternoon we'll get money flooding in for the last hour, and we COULD close higher tomorrow- like 1335, and headed north for the weekend.​

Not sure- but that is what my gut is telling me. Lower morning, followed by the rebound in the afternoon.​

Good luck, and happy investing. We'll see by late tomorrow afternoon whether or not this is the case.​

 

[James48843]

Hi James,
I am still learning,what is the relation of TYX and the F (or agg),one time 350Z explained if TNX goes up,agg (F) will go down or vice versa and how about TYX??TIA
appreciate your analysis and contribution to the board.TIA

Sorry, I have no idea. I can't answer that. Try asking 350Z, if he is the person who told you before. F (AGG) is not my area- I only use it as a holding vehicle, nothing else. I don't study it.

 

[James48843]

OK- FINALLY we got the downside nick that I was expecting.

I think what that tells me- the fact that it took three days and a lot of effort to break far enough for the "O"s to appear, is that there is a lot of money trying very hard to work it's way in, and kept proping it up.

That's ok- it's not really a bad sign at all that it took this long. Remember, the P&F charts horizontally do not have a relation to clock time. It only has a relation to vertical movement.

So now we've crossed below the 1320 mark, and are wallowing around between 1310 and 1320.

Here is this afternoon's chart:

View attachment 3626​

I have put in and marked the Orange line showing the appearance finally of the "O" column.

If we really did in fact have the reversal on March 19th like the chart is showing, we're now within range of the bullish resistance line below. That means we've come down about as far as it is going to go (give or take 10 points, I'd say) and we'll be ready to head north again shortly.

Hang on- let's see what the last 20 minutes of trading does today. We're actually negative for the month now, which would make it the fifith month in a row in the red for the S&P500- something that has not happened in a LONG long time.​

 

[James48843]

OK- here is the theroy for today-

We've now settled the 1312 bottom here- and, according to the P&F chart, we should consolidate here in this range (no lower than 1300, but going between 1300 and 1310 area is possible. ) And then, according to that heavy blue "bullish support line", we SHOULD bounce back upward again.

At least that would be true if in fact we have broken the bear market jinx. We'll just have to wait and see what we get.

Here is the chart on the open this morning. I've marked in where we are, and made a hail-mary prediction. If in fact we've broken the bear, then we should shoot back up to the 1350 range very soon.

View attachment 3636​

We could use a little good news from somewhere, to give the markets a shot in the arm. Whether it comes today, this week, or even in the next couple weeks, I don't know. But we need a good sign from someone to kick the money flow loose and head north again.

My gut tells me, that even though we started off in the red today, that we're ready for a bounce upward. Hang on, cause it should be here any time now.

That's it for today. Cross your fingers and let's see if we in fact head north shortly, or if everything falls apart, and we resume the bear market action.

Only time will tell.

 

[James48843]

James what is your allocation and are you planning any changes today? I'm picking up the G penny and contemplating C/S/I.

I am, and have been since March 19th, 100% "C" fund.

I am not playing these minor ups and downs, as I am trying my best to limit my personal moves to no more than 2 per month. I'm doing that not because I got a letter or anything (I did not) , but because I want to see how well I can do on a two-per-month theory.

I am in now because we got the major turn signal from red to blue. I'll stay in UNLESS we break below the bullish support line, OR, unless we get close to the "price objective" shown in the 1500 range. Those will be my two major indicators of making a move either in or out.

Other than that, I won't pull out UNLESS I see some kind of classic opportunity to escape on a down wave-where I see I have a very high likehood of moving out and then buying back in at a lower level. I've actually done that a couple of times this year- so techincally I am 6.5% or so ahead of the "C" fund, while being in the "C" the majority of the time, so I have caught the rebounds every time.

Hope that helps - I don't want to do quick ins and outs as I am trying to keep the number of moves to the minimum.

 

[James48843]

... I've marked in where we are, and made a hail-mary prediction. If in fact we've broken the bear, then we should shoot back up to the 1350 range very soon.

View attachment 3636​

We could use a little good news from somewhere, to give the markets a shot in the arm. ....

My gut tells me, that even though we started off in the red today, that we're ready for a bounce upward. Hang on, cause it should be here any time now.

That's it for today. Cross your fingers and let's see if we in fact head north shortly, or if everything falls apart, and we resume the bear market action.

Only time will tell.

Bingo. Strong move.

 

[whitemingo]

James,

I am still working on learing to understand the chart. When we get to 1350 is that when the Xs will start to fill in for an upward move?

 

[James48843]

Yes- The "X"s will appear when we get three boxes away from the bottom of the "O"s. I am not sure exactly whether that will show up at 1350 or 1360- not sure exactly where the low was. But in either case, I see us hitting a "higher high" on this cycle, before the wave washes out, and the tide turns back to a higher low.

SHORT LESSON: IT TAKES THREE BOXES OF PRICE MOVEMENT TO GET THE OPPOSITE SYMBOL TO APPEAR.

Again, the whole thing is telling me we hit the bottom when the blue lined formed underneath- so unless some outside factor hits us (which CAN happen-) then we will continue with the waves of higher highs, and higher lows, until we reach up to the "price objective" territory.

Here is this morning's chart so far:

View attachment 3645​

I've marked off that the chart is saying we should reach into the 1360-70 range as a "higher high" before it lets off and goes back down a little again.​

In general, we've had a pretty consistent "waves" flowing up and down recently. Time to start thinking about whether to catch one of these waves, and try to make it work for me. I THINK we may have another up day tomorrow- in that case we'll son reach upward to that 1360-1370 area.​

What I have been trying to do is to only move ONCE PER MONTH OUT, and then once back in, in trying to keep in tune with FTRIB's proposal (which I adamently oppose, by the way).​

But only if I get a VERY HIGH LIKELYHOOD of catching the wave at the right point. If I can better the S&P 500 by 1 to 2% EACH MONTH in this fashion, then I would consider it very, very successful. So far this year, so good- I'm above the S&P, and trying only to make very in frequent moves, and just catch a wave here and there. When we have periods like this when we have pretty good ups and downs, then we have something to work with.​

That's my 2 cents- your milage may vary. I'm not a professional, so don't listen to me. You are warned.​

 

[whitemingo]

Thank you. The chart just answered my question also.

 

[James48843]

OK- now we've had the "X"s appear- here is the chart:

View attachment 3646​

By the way, the number "4" appears to signify that is where the chart was on the open on the 4th month (april 1st).

And I have penciled in a fourth "X" in orange, predicting what I think is about to happen. I think we'll get that fourth "X", up around the 1360 level, before we slack off again.

One little note here. I WAS expecting a 1350-1360 ralley to appear. However, I was also expecting to go a tad bit lower before bouncing up. Since we only got a three "O" reversal, not a four "O" reversal, I am on guard that we MAY have a higher high into the 1370's this time, and it may happen very quick. That is NOT what I necessarily wanted- because the action is too quick to take advantage of. I would have rather it took three or four days to climb, so that I would have a good end-of-day target to bail out on.

Instead, with this quick of moves, I think I'll continue to just stay put for a while, and ride the rollar coaster some more.​

 

[James48843]

Nice.

The money pouring in indicated to me that we'll probably continue with a tweak up tomorrow, just a little more, just based on the momentum this afternoon.

But we've filled in that fourth "X" just today. Wham. Nice move up.

Here is the chart- showing we're right on track on the uptick here, sustaining the idea that we've chagned from a bear market, to a bullish one back towards the next indicated green price objective (P.O.) of 1510 or so.


View attachment 3647

My gut tells me another day up, maybe 1370-1380 range tomorrow, and then we'll settle back a little from this run.

That's it for today. Congrats to everyone who is in right now.

 

[Bullitt]

Something positive is a brewin'.

 

[airlift]

James,
Although TA isn't an exact science, it is an excellent tool(s). There will be hits and misses, but it works. Your charts and explanation were impressive. Keep up the fine work. Thanks!

 

[James48843]

Actually, things are looking pretty good- pretty impressive all the way around. After yesterday's big push up, I said we'd probably get some carry through into today, and that's true. This morning we saw a little bit of red as people took some profits, but overall, the trend looks exactly on course. I think today we'll pop above 1380 for a bit, and if we do, we should get a fifth "X" green above where we are now. Then, we should get a breather for bit. The good news is that these cycles or waves are pretty dog gone consistant, so I will pencil in here the next down wave bottom, with a penciled in orange "O", showing that I expect the next down cycle to only reach down into the 1340-1350 range. It may be a few days before we do that, but the likehood of doing it seem pretty good according to the chart.

Here is today's chart, as of 11:30.

View attachment 3652​

As I said before, I'm not going to try and catch any of these slight up and down waves here, unless I see a classic opportunity to set up and do it with a very high likelyhood of success. At the present time, we're getting too quick of swings for me to bank on a sure bet, so I'm just going to sit in, and enjoy the ride for a while.

Everything so far tells me the bullish support is back, at least for a while, so I am riding the waves and crests without moving. If, for some reason, we get some kind of breakdown ahead, then I'll bail, but it not, I'll be staying in for the time being, and watching for just the right moment (in a place with a little more stability) to catch a short profit on my two-moves per month.

Have a great day-
This is not advice, this is not a recommendation. I'm just a fed, not an investment professional. Don't do what I do, cause so far this year I 'm just in the middle of the pack.

Oh yea, and one more thing..."except in nebraska", my favorite disclaimer.​

 

[airlift]

James,
Your opinion and interpretation are important. Don't worry that you are not a professional. Neither are most of us. The value is that most people here are as bright or brighter than many professionals. Also, don't fail to post your short-term interpretations because some of us have both long and short term issues to manage. Thanks!

 

[James48843]

Although there is no change today at all in anything in the P&F chart, something else, and I have no idea what it is, is compelling me to bail out today. The back of my neck started tingling last night, and I'm bailing out to "F" today, "just because".

No data to support this at all. None. Nada.

But I'm doing it.

Moving 100% F today.