P&F Chart School

[James48843]

All I can say is "Wow". We're still building higher. I don't know what the driver is on this, but I'm in, so I will happily take it.

View attachment 3899​

I've penciled in a purple line to show the direction we're headed. The top of this seems to be the 1510 level as the "price objective" on this wave. I didn't expect it to be reaching there now, but we are well on the way.

I am beginning to think, now that we've broken over the 200 day moving average, that this is NOT a bear market, but rather just a consolidation, and that we're past the worst of it.

Of course, the first time I say something like that, is the time that everything tanks. So I will remain reserved, ready to bail out at the first sign of difficulty, but will hold on for the wild ride each day as we move forward.

A little tidbit to leave you with- The last couple of times we've had five months in a row lower, that was broken by several months of strongly higher afterwards. We got five months lower between October and March. Now we're looking at a nice rise for May, and we had a great April. So perhaps we're going to see good months this month and next. Who knows.

I'm in...to win.

Good luck.​

 

[luv2read]

broke 1440. Add another box.

 

[James48843]

...Of course, the first time I say something like that, is the time that everything tanks.

Yep.

I jinxed it.

Dang! I HATE WHEN THAT HAPPENS.

 

[luv2read]

Yep.

I jinxed it.

Dang! I HATE WHEN THAT HAPPENS.

Dang! James, almost got 2 boxes down today too!:laugh:

 

[luv2read]

3 0's.....

where will it go?

 

[luv2read]

4 0's. Filling in the gap?:blink:

 

[luv2read]

5 of em. 1360 next?:blink:

 

[James48843]

remember this number: 1364.

There is a gap to be filled at 1364. At the rate we're headed, that is still above the bullish support line. If it breaks below that line, then we're in trouble. If it stays about that line, we're ok.

the magic number is 1362 to 1364.

 

[luv2read]

I agree James. Did you see this post?

http://www.tsptalk.com/mb/showpost.php?p=165239&postcount=24

 

[luv2read]

1380 broken. Bullish signal reversed. Closing the gap down to 1360?

 

[James48843]

Dang.

Price objective reversed, and now it's showing a downturn to 1310 .

I'm most likely going to go to G on monday.

Missed it. (the peak).

Bummer.

And can't get back into stocks until next month, if I pull the trigger on Monday.

Thank goodness it's close to the end of the month.

 

[Silverbird]

Still hasn't broken 1370. More or less appears to have re-gained Friday losses. May follow the usual of late upday/downday pattern; tommorow should be interesting. :blink:

 

[Viva_La_Migra]

Haven't seen a new chart in about a week now. Where is the market at right now and where do we think it is going to go? Are we still waiting for the chart to get to 1364 before moving back in? My trigger finger is getting itchy and I got both barrels loaded!:nuts::nuts:

 

[James48843]

Sorry- been very, very busy at work lately.

Here is the chart for today.

View attachment 4009​

Personally, I'm in, because I wanted to save my moves due to only being able to do one per month. What I am looking for now is a peak up in the 1440-1450 range, so that I can bail out, hope it drops 30 points or so back into the 1405 range, and then go back in again if conditions are right. That's a tall order, but that's what I am indicating on this P&F chart, with the little purple dots. That's where it COULD be going over the next week or so.​

There were a couple of opportunities last month near the end of the month where I WOULD have bailed, if I knew I could get back in. Since I knew if I bailed last month I COULDN'T get back in until after June 1, I waited. And held my move to position myself to get ready for this month. One out and one back in per month is killing me.​

We didnt' hit the 1364 I was looking for. We only made it to 1370 on that last cycle.

But that MAY be the fill in of the gap we were missing, but ONLY if this market is a lot stronger than I gave it credit for last month. Again, with all the economic news being rather bad, I still can't figure out where the money is coming from that keeps pounding back in. It just doesn't make sense to me. But yes, I have to admit it's happening.​

So, at the moment, I'm in.​

If we are truely going back up on this ride, then we have a strong up move ahead shortly, then the next pull back won't come until the 1440-1450 range or higher.​

On the other hand, this COULD be a fakeout.

Reminder: During times of bear markets one has to be extremely careful not to get caught on the wrong side.​

So there you have it. I'm in, waiting for the right moment to take a high risk venture and try to capture 20 to 30 points on a down cycle after the next peak.​

What you choose to do is soley up to you.​

(A favorite line from a movie is appropriate here:​

(I know what you're thinking-
Was that five O's down, or was it six? ​

Do you feel lucky? ​

Well, do you?) ​

This is a gamble. that's all. ​

 

[Guest2]

"One out and one back in per month is killing me."

James, as always, thank you for finding the time to share your P&F expertise. We listen closely to what you have to say and appreciate
your every thought!

Please forgive me for possibly misunderstanding, but I have to say this.
The above quote would lead a person to believe that you only have two
moves available. (one in,,,,one out) I'm sure you know that you have
more then just two moves available to you. Is that your goal for each
month? To move into a Fund,,,hit your goal,,,then move back to the (G)
while only using just two move?

 

[James48843]

I'm sure you know that you have
more then just two moves available to you. Is that your goal for each
month? To move into a Fund,,,hit your goal,,,then move back to the (G)
while only using just two move?

Yes, yes. I am aware of "The move to "G"" possibiltiy. But that is NOT my goal. My goal is to stay invested when I can, and then look for the opportunities to get OUT, when I think the market is about to go DOWN, and then get back in at a cheaper price.

Clip an extra 1% here, clip an extra 1% there, and pretty soon we're talking about real money. Not big clips, but little ones.

But I don't like what they did to be able to go to "G".

If you ask my opinion, that is the WORST possible thing that the TSP board did. It will result in huge losses for thousands of TSP share holders.

Why?

Because the one thing that people will do when they panic, is move to "G".

And then, by not being able to move into stocks, they will lock in those huge losses.

Look at January. the biggest volume day for the month was January 22nd, when the market tanked. And literally thousands of people moved to "G".

But if you had to wait until February 1st to move BACK into stocks, then you would be more than 4 % below others who were able to move back in the next day.

No, the "G" thing is HORRIBLE for people. The worst thing they could have done.

Now, that said, my technique for ME, is to watch for over value, then get out, then let it fall, then get back in.

I am not wise enough to maintain most of my time in G, and then try to take a stab at moving IN to catch an upside, and then get back out again.

My focus instead, and my technique that I have been trying to follow, is exactly the opposite- it's to stay IN as long as I can, and then only get out when I see a high probability to preserve money in a short period of a down turn. I can't guess when stocks are going to go up, but I have a higher chance of guessing right when stocks are going to go down.

So that is why I am focused on the two-move limit. One out to "G", and then one back in to stocks.

Yes, there is a third move possible, to "G", but you would have to convince me that we're going to have continued decline all the way to the end of the month, before I would pull that trigger. And right now I don't see that.

Hope that helps put things in perspective.

 

[mamikin]

Thank you, James, for reappearing and providing your insight. I know, I know, you make it quite clear that this is only your opinion and that we should make our own decisions, which most of us do anyway. But several of us do look to you and others for insight - can you blame us? I think it was Georgia Gal who asked "Where are James and Griffin? I can't do this on my own!"

 

[Guest2]

Thank You for having the patience in dealing with my confussion
and giving such a detailed explanation for all to see & understand.

 

[Silverbird]

Arrgh, it went below 1370....

 

[luv2read]

Arrgh, it went below 1370....

another box. 1364-1368 is support...