P&F Chart School

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I don't think SCUBA will be adequate. Better get one of those old-fashioned diving suits with helmets. Bearish price objective is now.....1190!!!!!

So much for sell in May and go away...looks like buy in June....and shoot the moon

 
I'm TDY so I am only able to peek in to TSP talk a little- but it is clear to me that we're going to take a nice chunk out here, and go lower.

There is a resistance point around 1260 to 1270 that may hold. Or maybe not. If it doesn't, then we're next down around the low 12's.

This reminds me of a June descent back --when was it- in 2000 or so?

- I'll have to go look at the charts and see exactly what year that was, but there was a heck of nice pullback in June that year. I remember because I was stuck at a National Guard summer AT, was locked into C, and was nailed big time. This time at least I am in G right now, watching it fall. Nice.

Now the big task is figuring out when to jump back in. At 1270? Or wait?

Down she goes.......
 
One note:

We've lost 5.71% on the C fund this month- that is abnormal even for a bear market. Look for a day or two more of downside, and look for a place to get back in, because the last few days of the month we are bound to get some kind of a bounce back up, even if the whole trend is downward.

This looks very much like the year 2002. That year, the C fund ended up losing over 22% for the year. This year is shaping up much like that one did...


http://tsp.gov/rates/history_2002.html

What do you think- is this a repeat?​
 
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The scary part is, 2002 was the 3rd year of that bear market. Things look bad now but people are still calling for a bottom here. That probably means we have more downside to go. We need to see a puke bottom like June/July/September of 2002.

Interestly enough, the AAII bearish percentages hit higher levels this year than they did in 2002. Go figure.

But yes, we can pick our spots to make some money in the bear market rallies, but this leg down will likely take out the March lows first.
 
No change in the P&F chart.

Looks very, very negative for the next couple days. Yesterday I kind of expected a little bounce back. It didn't happen. That means no support or moneyflow back into stocks. Which means today is not going to be pretty. And maybe tomorrow as well.

Still showing 1190 as the downside price objective. I wouldn't even think about buying back in for a while. While I don't think it will hit 1190 (I think we'll get resistance at 1270, and again at 1230 levels), I DO think we'll get a lot closer to 1190 than where we are now.

SharpChartv05.ServletDriver



Not a pretty chart.

I am thinking 1270 before we get a little rebound, and then it will only come back half the distance before heading south again.

I'm looking for a 1270-ish entry point to get back in for a quick ride up to 1340, then back out again as it continues to fall back down.

Not a good place to be.
 
If this is going to be like 1999-2002, watch the inventories. Tech companies had to find ways to get rid of the extra electronics in their warehouses - much of which became useless because new products passed it by. Until all of that old inventory was cleared out of all of the supply channels either by selling or junking it as scrap (all the way down to the semiconductor and assembly guys) the technology companies were going down fighting one other, offering lower prices to get rid of junk.

If that is the case this time, I would guess, watch house inventories this time, but I don't know much about real estate so I could be looking in the wrong tree for an answer.
 
Notice that the price objective has moved to 1150-

I'm going WAAAYYY out on a limb and taking a chance on a bounce tomorrow-

I went back in 100% C at COB today, and then plan to probably jump right back out in a day or two.
 
Here is my theroy on this one-

I didn't look at it except today just before the noon cutoff, and then again after the close.

We're actually down near the 1270 mark we've been talking about. We've had a 15 unit downside on this slide- and even looking at the past five years of ups and downs, 15 units is a LOT without having at least ONE quick reversal.

Here is the closing chart today:


Now, what I am seeing is that we've decended 15 units from the peak, and made a bearish resistance red line appear. That tells me we are only just beginning to plunge on the downward side. The price objective has been revised downward at least five times, and now shows a downward side of 1130 expected. I full expect we'll actually reach down to perhaps 1170, but I am doubtful right now it will make it to the 1130 mark. We'll just have to see what happens.​

What I DO know is that there is this big support line at the 1270 mark. That's what we've been talking about for the last couple weeks--- 1270. Something will happen at the 1270.​

1270 will be 17 UNITS below the peak, and without a reversal going down to the 1270 level, we'll have an almost record level descent. Rarely does it go 17 units without reversiung course, at least enough for it to pattern up a series of "X"s, the value of which has traditionally been about half the distance down.​

So I am betting this: We're at 1280 and change now, and I see a resistance is going to hit at 1270. My gut tells me 75% chance or better of a resistance at 1270 level. and then I think we'll jump back up to around 1320, before heading BACK down again, this time not stopping for a while.​

So my game plan is: Back in here, hope for a bounce, and then right back out again when the bounce comes.​

If I hit this right- great stuff.​

If I just blew it bigtime- (which, by the way, is VERY possible), then I just added another year or two before I can retire. :nuts:​

Note: True "Crashes" in the market start out like this. Three percent down in a day, the Hindenberg Omen shouting out there, oil above 140, subprime mess, creidt card debt, bank foreclosures, etc. etc. etc. If this is going to be a "crash", then I just stepped off the cliff, and there is no parachute here.​


Wish me well........​
 
Dang.

One day early. I moved too soon. VIX only poped up to 24 yesterday. We may get another strong down day before the rebound will kick in.

Oh well.

Best of luck everyone!
 
looks like volume just spiked like it did Tuesday on the upswing, let's see if the selling spree is over for the week.
 
Nice.

Looks like we're rolling around the 1270ish mark- hit 1272 a little while ago. That fills in things nicely. And is almost exactly what I expeced for today.

I think now we'll be ready for a nice comeback ( A SHORT BOUNCE ONLY), if we just can get away from all the bad news for a day.

Looking nice.

Three things I would point out.

1. The bearish price objective has been changed AGAIN. Now is showing as an 1110 number. Wow.

2. We're now right around that 1270 mark I've been talking about. This is a nice place to get a short term bounce, as it matches several other earlier marks- and should operate as some solid- although very temporary--ground. It's working, as seen by today's first knock on the 1272 mark, and then a pushback. Nice sign.

3. We're now down 16 units from the high in this cycle. That is an extrordinary fall. If normal patterns hold, we should get about a half of that back, maybe six to seven units instead of eight, but regardless, I am thinking we should get something back here and soon. VIX is still not as high as I would like it (23 range), but it's begun to climb. So we may be ready to capitulate, at least for a couple days.


This is what my gut says- Soon, very soon, we should get a quick ride up, due to the amount of sell-off that has occured in the last couple weeks.​

Although I also see real bear market continuing in the weeks ahead. I'm risking that we'll get a small pop, and when it happens, I'm bailing back out to safety of the sidelines.​

If you were asking "What does a bear market look like", you now have your answer. The bottom of the bear won't be until we hit the mid to low 1100's, according to the P&F chart.​

As always- be careful out there- use your own judgement- because it will be very easy to get burned if you are not nimble in this market. This is not advice- you do what you think is best for your account. I'm not an investment advisor- nor do I play one on TV.


Good luck.

​
 
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