oleg850's Account Talk

Oleg, are you still looking at $50 for a good buy in on NUGT? Just curious after it basically met your $70 price target on last week's run.

I bought a lot of NUGT at a pierce of $50 today. I've been flying all morning, so I apologize for not posting the trade in real time. Holding for $60-$65 sell target. The last trade hit my range perfectly. I had a $70-$75 price target and NUGT ran from $53 to $76 on the FOMC announcement. Once I get to a computer, I'll post my system signal, as it might have gotten stopped out of its long IWM/TNA with a healthy profit after initiating a long position on Sep 6.
 
System Update:

The SPY was stopped out of it's long position at $170. IWM remains long with a stop at $104.85. TNA remains long with a stop at $59.20. Interestingly, SSO (2X SPY) did not get stopped out yesterday, and remains long. It's current stop is set for $85.90.

The entries for TNA/SSO for this trade were $55 and $82, respectively. The stops guarantee a profit of 7.6% and 4.8%, respectively (note that TNA is a 3X ETF and SSO is only 2X).

I wouldn't be surprised if the remaining stops were triggered today or tomorrow, this week is starting off weak. Once a stop has been triggered, the system remains parked in cash for the remainder of the week, and possibly the next week.

My indicator-based system remains biased long, although just slightly, as of yesterday's close. I apologize for the sparsity of my posts lately, been really busy with outside obligations. I'm on the road all this week, so they will likely be seldom as well, which is not a problem for me if I get stopped out for a nice profit in TNA.
 
Oleg,

Thank you for taking the time to post an update of your system. I know you're busy, so don't sweat not being able to post as frequently as you might like.

I look forward to reading your thoughts on diversification, determining position sizes, and setting stops. I've lost quite a lot this year by trading against the overall trend and not using stops. That is not something I want to continue.
 
I bought a lot of NUGT at a pierce of $50 today. I've been flying all morning, so I apologize for not posting the trade in real time. Holding for $60-$65 sell target. The last trade hit my range perfectly. I had a $70-$75 price target and NUGT ran from $53 to $76 on the FOMC announcement. Once I get to a computer, I'll post my system signal, as it might have gotten stopped out of its long IWM/TNA with a healthy profit after initiating a long position on Sep 6.

Great call on NUGT. I am already up $6/share.
 
Good morning! Oleg,

When you decide on a buy in, when do you determine the "stop price"? (So you wouldn't be stopped out to quickly on the whipsaws)

Much obliged,

GEW
 
I missed the original day where NUGT was bought by some of you, who feels today would be a good day to buy in for the target price Oleg set for this trade???

Edit: Placed a limit order @ $48.75....we'll see if she executes by close.
 
Limit order never filled should have just done a market order, which would have been filled below $49 still..... Oh well. If it gets down near $50 today I will buy a portion.
 
System Update:

As I mentioned in a previous post, my system's long SPY position was stopped out last week at $170 from a $166 entry on 09/06 for a profit of 2.4%. SSO was also stopped out last week at $85.90 from a $81.87 entry for a 4.9% profit. Both SPY/SSO will remain in cash through at least Friday, which is a worry free place to be given this week's uncertainties. Small caps showed relative strength last week and remained well above the designated stops of $104.85 (IWM) and $59.24 (TNA). As of Friday's close, running profits for this trade for IWM/TNA were 4.1% and 13.5%, respectively. The stops for this week are updated as follows:

IWM: $105.70 (profit of 3.2%)
TNA: $60.70 (profit of 10.1%)

As of right now, futures are down about .8% across the board, and we may open below the designated stops tomorrow morning. If that is the case, the "hard" stops will trigger at whatever the opening price will be. I doubt that will be the case, however, because of I'm sure the plunge protection team will be out in full force, at least in the morning. My stops are in effect during AH trading, so they can trigger as soon as the electronic exchanges open (I believe that's 4AM CT). If the current drop in futures holds through the morning, we may get a sizable gap under short-term support, resulting in sustained selling throughout the trading day. If that is the case, I will sit in cash stress-free with a healthy profit in my pocket. Once again, if the IWM/TNA stops hit, the system will remain in cash until at least Friday.

My indicator-based system remains biased long, again only slightly. A lot of people are seeking to profit by trading the news surrounding the potential government shutdown. In my opinion, trading anything around news is a fool's game, and I personally choose to abstain from such behavior. That being said, I suspect my long NUGT position will benefit from any panic that will likely ensue for the remainder of the week. The reasons for me taking that position were mainly technically based, coupled with my longer term bullishness on gold (I am long CEF for the long haul), and not based on news or rumors.

Hope everyone had a good weekend. I plan on getting my educational posts started this week, the first one will be on Macro planning for trading/investing.
 
Another quick system update, the overnight futures and metals trading has now pushed my indicator-based system from being slightly long to cash. It may change as soon as COB tomorrow, but as of right now remains in CASH.
 
Another quick system update, the overnight futures and metals trading has now pushed my indicator-based system from being slightly long to cash. It may change as soon as COB tomorrow, but as of right now remains in CASH.

So no NUGT buying today?
 
Another quick system update, the overnight futures and metals trading has now pushed my indicator-based system from being slightly long to cash. It may change as soon as COB tomorrow, but as of right now remains in CASH.

So no NUGT buying today?

My trend following and indicator-based systems are designed for trading SPY/IWM, not gold or miners. NUGT was a discretionary trade I took at $50, I continue to hold it for a price target of $60.
 
My trend following and indicator-based systems are designed for trading SPY/IWM, not gold or miners. NUGT was a discretionary trade I took at $50, I continue to hold it for a price target of $60.

I asked because I made a very profitable trade the last time you bought NUGT. I'll take another look at it.
 
System Update:

The IWM/TNA positions were stopped out early yesterday morning, much as I expected, for the profits previously posted:

IWM: $105.70 (profit of 3.2%)
TNA: $60.70 (profit of 10.1%)

Not a bad way to wrap up September. The trending system will remain in cash until at least Friday and the indicator-based system remains in cash as of COB yesterday so we'll just have to see how things play out. The markets don't seem too concerned about the shutdown, just like they didn't care about the sequester earlier in the year. If you look at it objectively, a government shutdown saves the taxpayers a lot of money in the form of our salaries, at least temporarily. We may see some more panic selling here and there but I personally do not expect a waterfall decline akin to 2011. If Congress continues their ineptitude into the Oct 17 default deadline, things may play out differently, as downgrades to the US credit rating WILL have a substantial impact on borrowing costs, which would translate negatively upon the economy and the markets. I'm not in the business of guessing where the market is going to go and neither are my systems, so we will just see what the markets have to tell us come week's end.

For those still working, have a great week "volunteering" - I know I will!
 
NUGT down to $47 and change in premarket trading. Guess I was a little premature buying some yesterday at $49. Thanks for you insight oleg, always appreciated.
 
NUGT down to $47 and change in premarket trading. Guess I was a little premature buying some yesterday at $49. Thanks for you insight oleg, always appreciated.

You got a better entry than I did! I would hope that your position in NUGT/DUST or the like is not more than 5% of your total available capital. I will post a comparison of just how bad of a long term investment vehicle these two products are later this evening. You have to be willing to ride the wild swings to lock in profit and there's no worry-free way of doing it unless your position is very small relative to the rest of your portfolio.
 
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You got a better entry than I did! I would hope that your position in NUGT/DUST or the like is not more than 5% of your total available capital. I will post a comparison of just how bad of a long term investment vehicle these two products are later this evening. You have to be willing to ride the wild swings to lock in profit and there's no worry-free way of doing it unless your position is very small relative to the rest of your portfolio.

I'll try some of this NUGT thing...in at $46.43, with < 2% of my ooverall portfolio :)

Stoplight...
 
Good morning! Oleg,

When you decide on a buy in, when do you determine the "stop price"? (So you wouldn't be stopped out to quickly on the whipsaws)

Much obliged,

GEW

Sorry for the late reply here, haven't had much free time lately. To answer your question, I need a bit more information. If you are inquiring as to how I determine the stops for my trending system, I'm afraid I can't help. I consider that information proprietary since the stops are the exit signals for its trades (the only way the system exits its long positions is by being stopped out). I mentioned earlier in this thread that I wanted to keep the inner workings of both systems under lock and key, in order to help keep them working. Think of it as a "black box" trading system similar to those that all the investment banks spend millions of dollars on developing, they don't dare allow their algorithms to be leaked, as doing so would guarantee system failure. Part of the same reason a lot of quant systems out there suddenly stop working after otherwise performing admirably in the past. I always liked the saying "loose lips sink ships!"

If you're asking about determining stops on individual, discretionary trades such as those I sometimes take with NUGT, AAPL, and others, I generally don't use stops since I utilize a number of factors to determine good entry points that have a high risk/reward ratio. In my opinion, stops are useful if you are scalping (day trading), or use trailing stops on intermediate hold trades. Other than that, I see no use for them. Most that are set too close to the prevailing price are taken out by computer trading programs designed to monitor them.

Hope that helps, and don't take this response as me being secretive. I'm just trying to ensure the systems remain profitable going forward for all to enjoy.
 
Sorry for the late reply here, haven't had much free time lately. To answer your question, I need a bit more information. If you are inquiring as to how I determine the stops for my trending system, I'm afraid I can't help. I consider that information proprietary since the stops are the exit signals for its trades (the only way the system exits its long positions is by being stopped out). I mentioned earlier in this thread that I wanted to keep the inner workings of both systems under lock and key, in order to help keep them working. Think of it as a "black box" trading system similar to those that all the investment banks spend millions of dollars on developing, they don't dare allow their algorithms to be leaked, as doing so would guarantee system failure. Part of the same reason a lot of quant systems out there suddenly stop working after otherwise performing admirably in the past. I always liked the saying "loose lips sink ships!"

If you're asking about determining stops on individual, discretionary trades such as those I sometimes take with NUGT, AAPL, and others, I generally don't use stops since I utilize a number of factors to determine good entry points that have a high risk/reward ratio. In my opinion, stops are useful if you are scalping (day trading), or use trailing stops on intermediate hold trades. Other than that, I see no use for them. Most that are set too close to the prevailing price are taken out by computer trading programs designed to monitor them.

Hope that helps, and don't take this response as me being secretive. I'm just trying to ensure the systems remain profitable going forward for all to enjoy.

Your observations are in synch with my own. Systems that become main stream tend to stop working well over time. That's why I've adopted Mark Young's approach to trading, which follows sentiment and technical indicators. That way, if one is reading the tea leaves correctly, changes in market character are more readily identified and you can make adjustments accordingly.

I also do not use hard stops. I learned that lesson years ago. But it's not just computer systems that run stops. Market Makers have been known to take advantage of this inside information too.
 
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