ocean's Account Talk

[ocean]

This Roller Coaster ride is just getting too excited and I can't see the end of it near term. Just jump off the ride and take my breath. Collecting a penny on Monday (I hope) with 100% G just IFT from fully loaded C/S/I before 12:00 noon today.

I noticed that I fund was down .94% but EFA was down 1.52%. Expect I fund will correct itself Monday by dropping more.

Someone is making money today though. It would be our site webmaster .. Tom with 100% F .. Congrats ..

Birchtree, I will do my dollar cost average some other time but not Monday ..

Chaser, I will continue to monitor the 20 and 50 EMA and looks like the chart is not looking that good ..May be time to get out for now ..

Ocean

 

[ocean]

Looks like the market will be ended in the black today. This week is my perfect week (5 out of 5). Re-gain the lost from last Friday. Going to play conservative for Monday. I always try to play safe before and after the weekend. Allocation is the same G: 70; C/S/I: 10 each. Guarantee to collect penny. January effect worked out fine so far. Suspect next week / month will have more movement on the down side. Play with caution.

Ocean

 

[ocean]

Just checked with FundSurfer's tally, as the hardest trading bee as I am in this forum, my result for the last two months was .70%. I didn't even match with the G fund (.72%). I've been eagerly talking about market timing this and that .. 20 ema, 50 ema cross-over this and that .. Result showed that I am not quite there yet.

But on the bright side, I trade almost every business day (M_M would know it) and I have positive returns two months in a row. That's a good sign and I just need to trade smarter and be more alert with the short term market condition vs the near term market trend. Well, I will see what my March result will be at the end of the month. If thing doesn't go well, I may follow Birchtree's buy and hold strategy (at least that's what he is doing now), follow with his practice using his famous phrase: dollar / cost average of some sort. (Birchtree, this is my compliment to you, please don't get offended. Your result shows you are the winner so far.)

BTW, thanks to M_M, FundSurfer and other moderators to track the record.

Ocean (well, I need a icon for a working bee .. just kidding)

 

[Birchtree]

Determine the trend

Ocean,

If you are trading every day you spend a lot of time pistol shooting - that's too much work for me. I'd rather utilize my energies on trying to determine the trend of the market as part of my decision making process - then select the sector to be invested in - that's why I'm comfortable 100% in the C fund. As long as I'm comfortable in the longer term trend I just let my dollar cost averaging contributions handle the rest - leaving it up to fate. I have money in other places and I do essentially the same thing - concentrate my energy on the trend. I am glad oil prices are slowly moving back up one more time - I've been contemplating peeling off some profits to buy other stocks. I'm also slowly lightening up on the small cap fund I own and putting that money to work in my international fund. Again dollar cost averaging on the way up, unforetunately. Be careful with that power account you could end up wealthy over the next couple of years.

Dennis

 

[ocean]

Dennis,

Thanks for the advice and I will be watchng my account like a hawk. We may be representing two extreme styles of investing with our "power" TSP accounts as you referred it.

When Warren Buffett talks, people listen. I consider you as him (sort of) in this forum because of the size of your TSP portfolio and the consistence of your investment strategy. I konw your style will work, just like everyone knows Buffett will make money in time but most people just impatient including me when it comes to investing.

A message to all other new TSP investors. Given time with your continuing contribution of the TSP dollar, your portfolio will be getting larger and larger in a relatively short time. Best of luck to all.

Ocean

 

[ocean]

Hay, I just realized that someone gave a 4 star rating on my thread. I didn't give market advice nor did I talk that much in my thread. Everything I say here is only my opinion. Please reduce it to may be a 2. I don't want to give wrong impression in this forum. A 4 star rating is for someone who is recognized as an expert and be reputable and I am not way near there. A 2 for me is my comfort zone.

Thanks.

Ocean

 

[Rod]

Hey Ocean,

Perhaps your moves helped someone else out, thus saving them some bucks. You don't want to give back to them the praise they gave to you, do you?

Just allow folks to rate you. That's what the ratings are for. Don't be afraid of them.

Finally, keep in mind that YOU are not ultimately responsible for other's moves that they make.

HAVE FUN.

 

[Birchtree]

I think a new impulsive price structure to the upside has begun

This from the Mogambo Guru - www.safehaven.com/article-4780.htm

Regareding the eventual 9% correction. We are close to an all-time record going back to 1950, regarding the time that has passed since the last 9% correction. The longest such stretch came between the 1990 bottom and a 9.7% correction in the first quarter of 1994, a period of 1280 days. Presently, we are 1113 days, the second longest stretch recorded in 55 years. Hope I'm ready when it arrives.

Dennis

 

[Spaf]

ocean,

The way I look at it is:
Best: Having a strategy, making money, and sleeping well!
Worst: Not having a strategy, loosing money, and not sleeping!

Most of us fit somewhere in the middle. And are trying to improve!

Welcome to the Board!

Rgds, and be careful!........ ...........Spaf

 

[Spaf]

Ocean,

Your 4% withdrawl is ideal!

Do you realize that with 4% you could literally stay in the G-Fund, make money and never touch your principal. Take the yearly Santa Claus rally and stay above inflation.

Then consider the low expense ratio of TSP funds, and we have the best of both worlds.

Good luck to you ocean. Take care........... ...........Spaf

 

[ocean]

Ocean,

Do you realize that with 4% you could literally stay in the G-Fund, make money and never touch your principal.

Spaf,

Very true. On a normal market a 4% returns on G fund is achievable. But given the average life expectance, say 20 years after retirement, we still need to invest a good portion of the funds into stocks in the early part of the retirement. Because 3% of inflation each year will be a hugh number in 15 years ( = .65 of current value) to 20 years ( = .56 of current value) later.

In the case of the adverse market in the early stage of the retirement, we still have sufficient time to catch up. Of course there is always a risk there, but I think it is worth it. Just my thought ..

Thanks Spaf and good luck to you too.

Ocean

 

[ocean]

I know this is off topic.

I just signed up the free CNBC Squawk Box Fantasy Portfolio Chanllenge. They give you a $1M play money for 4 weeks for investing in stocks in a simulated website. It is Free and the winner will win a Maserati and they pay for the tax (so they say). Here is the link:

http://www.sbfantasyportfolio.com

The game begins on April 4. Good luck and have fun

Ocean

 

[ocean]

I thought I am doing fine on my IFT for the first quarter with 4.39%. But compared with the C/S/I combined and other members here, I am actually below average. Instead of spending too much time in chasing / guessing / hoping everyday around 12:00 noon to IFT, I just signed up Rev TSP newsletter. I may not follow his advice 100% but at least I don't need to chase around the market. I will not post my moves any more but I will post my returns at the end of each month here just to share.

Thank you Tom, M_M, Birchtree, Rod, Spaf and others.

Ocean

 

[ocean]

Yeah, I would say that we are little luckier and I began to build this portfolio since 1988. The first 15 years did not seem to be that much at all but it's got larger in the last 3 years.

Ocean

 

[Birchtree]

And it will get even larger in the next three years - just keep the power working. It's not a time to be meek and mild - go on offense.

 

[ocean]

Yes, Birch. With you on this board and Rev as a silent partner, I think I will be OK. Thanks again.

Ocean

 

[ocean]

This is tough being in a 1 day up and a few days down market because you never know what you’re going to get. Jumping in a wrong time will definitely hurt you. I switched to 80% I and 20% S yesterday hoping to catch the reversal trend. Well, who would know that the S fund was back down 2% “violently” today and I felt Tom and Wheels’ pain too. As a day trader (TSP) myself, I just have to look for a better day tomorrow.

Ocean

 

[Birchtree]

Ocean,

Hey Hippity Hop - I left you a short message on the Birchy talk thread.

 

[ocean]

OK, let me go there and check.

 

[ocean]

And in the time it took me to type that it has fallen another 3/10 of a percent. If this continues, I'll be in danger of losing my "super power account" status and I'll have to slum around with Birchtree's "power account" crowd. Unthinkable.

Dave
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Birch / Wheels,

I have this idea and see if it makes sense. Since most government employee’s TSP account balance will grow rapidly over time. No doubt in the next 10 years most people will double their current balance. A lot of folks here will become power or super power account status and even beyond that.

As for me, I am shooting for $1M. If we setup some categories for these accounts so everyone has a goal to shoot for. No one has to openly talk about their status if they don’t want to. But I know three of us would like to share these status and I am sure when folks reach this level would like to talk about it also. What do you think? I know someone may say they don’t care and don’t even bother but it is ok and please ignore it.

Categories would be:

Category 1 - TSP account: < $200K
Category 2 - Premier account: $200K – $399K
Category 3 - Power account: $400K - $599K
Category 4 - Super account: $600K – $799K
Category 5 - Monster account: $800K – $999K
Category 6 - Optimal account: > $1M

Wheels, it may bring you down to the Power account now but you may be the first one to reach the Super account or you are already in the "Strong" Super account.

Ocean