ocean's Account Talk

[atcsat64]

Okay, I got about 470,000 to go before I hit the ole 500,000 mark. I'd like to see how fast it goes up, with the help of this excellent TSP community.

I wish I had had this forum when I was at 30k... Man it almost hurts to think about it. Is that pain I'm felling greed?

 

[ocean]

fabijo,

Birch is right and you came to the right place. I joined this board at the end of last year and I had learned a lot from this board for my own allocation. My unofficial YTD returns just hit 20% at the end of today. I am sure you can do the same or even better.

It takes big stomach to swallow the daily ups and down as Birch rerferred but it will take you there sooner than you know. Good luck and have fun.

Ocean

 

[fabijo]

fabijo,

Well my friend the first thing you need to do is accumulate and accumulate some more. The Birchtree first law of finance is that it takes money to make money - rather simple. And if you are disciplined you will have larger power accounts sooner than it took most of us. All it takes besides money is education and some stomach - you've come to the right place.

Birchtree -

I noticed that in a few posts, you've mentioned being contrarian during some harsh times, like some medical stocks back in the late 70's or something. What percentage of the time would you say that you have successfully chosen the right strategy during indecisive times? I'm asking because I always see you saying buy, buy, buy, while I see others warning of either a big drop or a big pullback.

 

[Birchtree]

Fabijo,

I've made more mistakes and lost more money than I care to remember. Most of those lessons were learned when I was younger and now because I've survived the school of hard knocks I have developed some degree of wisdom about the whole thing. Over the last 20 years I'm correct about 80% of the time - that just comes from pure experience. Most of my buying is done with individual stocks that pay dividends - I'm building income and capital gains are secondary at this point. Some MB members don't like that idea - but who cares. You will find you can't live on TSP and love alone. You have to have even more flexibility. Remember, even being correct on direction does not mean immediate gratification - you have to maneuver around all those 50 million Frenchman that are going the wrong way. I have a tendency to pick my strategy and let the market come to me - the often slower approach - but right now this boy is in the sweet spot, ca ching.

 

[fabijo]

Thanks for the wisdom, Birch.

 

[ocean]

Fabijo,

I've made more mistakes and lost more money than I care to remember. Most of those lessons were learned when I was younger and now because I've survived the school of hard knocks I have developed some degree of wisdom about the whole thing. Over the last 20 years I'm correct about 80% of the time - that just comes from pure experience. Most of my buying is done with individual stocks that pay dividends - I'm building income and capital gains are secondary at this point. Some MB members don't like that idea - but who cares. You will find you can't live on TSP and love alone. You have to have even more flexibility. Remember, even being correct on direction does not mean immediate gratification - you have to maneuver around all those 50 million Frenchman that are going the wrong way. I have a tendency to pick my strategy and let the market come to me - the often slower approach - but right now this boy is in the sweet spot, ca ching.

Birch,

I truly believe what you just said because I've seen it happened.

Some of my older generations that I’ve seen were investing this way. They came to this country from afar to make a living and feed their families. Of course they did not have a right language tool and skills to compete for certain decent paying jobs. But that did not stop them from making better life for their families. Most of these folks sacrificed on everything to save a few pennies with every chance they could.

A lot of these folks also believed in the stock market. They saved up enough money to buy 100 hundred shares of XYZ this and 100 hundred shares of XYZ that. All these were high quality companies with pay dividend. Interesting enough they went to the local community and relied on their brokers’ recommendation. They trusted these brokers dearly. Back then, they may know a few names of companies such IBM, Exxon, Wang just to name a few.

By the time you know it they had 1000 shares of these, and 1000 shares of those after so many splits along the way. Each quarter they had some good dividend checks coming in via mail. (I think Mailman had delivered a lot of these dividend checks to these folks already.)

Well, most these people would buy their first house before they invest their first share of stock. They knew the place with the roof to live is a must. So they would buy a little run down house and with friends’ help or hired a local handyman to fix it up. Eventually they applied to get their families coming here from abroad and started a root here. In time, the value of house goes up and up and up. Pyriel, value of house always goes up in time. (you already knew it, I guess.)

As a newer generation myself, I also came across the ocean many years ago as adult, I didn’t know much of English but determined to learn and get out of the local community and tried to make a better life for myself and my family. From my first paying job with $100 a week till now I make over $100K a year with my current job. Welcome to America!!! This land is full of hope, joy and everything!!!

In terms of investing, new generations here and abroad, we all like to chase the fast money, jumping in and out of stocks with small profits, calculate today’s gain and don’t bother with 5 years, 10 years projected profits down the road.

Birch, not many people would like to hear what you’ve been trying to say in their face. But deep inside, they know it works, but it is just not fast enough. I once said that you were John Wayne of TSP, and in my opinion you still are.

I seldom write this long but I just did today. May be it is raining very hard outside and I can’t do anything much and decided to spend a little time on this board. BTW this month is my 33 year anniversary coming to America.

Have a nice day.

Ocean

 

[EW_ret]

Now that's a story of success and a good example of how great our country can be for those who work hard for a better life. It's the same story told by my mother about her father coming to America after World War I. He arrived without knowing anybody in this country, but was able to find work and through the years worked up to owning his own business.

 

[Birchtree]

Ocean,

I noticed you were doing the DCA on the upside and then all of a sudden you are stepping up to the plate - those mucho dollars must be burning a hole in your pocket. I admire that courage but I don't have the confidence in the I fund that you display. You just might knock one out of the park - this is the time of year for profit potential. Take care.

Dennis

 

[ocean]

Birch,

I believe tomorrow will be another up day by judging the pre-opening this morning (11/29) and that's why I went 100% in stock funds (50% S and 50% I). If I am right I may be a little closer in catching you up on TSP. As for Friday, I may trim down a little before the week end.

Congrats on you $1.2M port. Someone asked you in your thread what the returns is for this year so far. I remember you mentioned about approaching $1M in your Oceanic account early this year. So I guess your YTD returns is over 20% for this portfolio. Not bad, not bad at all.

Ocean

 

[ocean]

Noticed your predictions in the No Chat account section...Just curious as to where and why the long term in stock commitment. Hope the best for you.


If nothing else, at least we knocked the cobwebs off your talk account section here.

This is not my long term predictions but to close out the no-chat allocation here with a complete 2007 record. I am still moving in and out of stock funds as usual in the autotracker but most likely will stick with stock funds more because this is near the end of the year.

Ocean

 

[Birchtree]

The toughest discipline is letting your profits ride. With the NYA moving to new all time highs this pretty much gives the escape velocity that was needed to confirm the price sequence from the August bottom was one of greater significance to the larger overall trend of the general market. Long live the bull and more power to the power accounts that dwell here. Ocean, you may easily make a hundred thousand or more in the next three months.

 

[poolman]

My gut feeling is we are going to see a 3 - 5 percent pullback and then a Christmas rally somtime between now and the end of 2007.

Although I have been (per se') out of the loop since my busy season, I try my best to stay in tune. Very hard to do!

A push to 15000 on the dow would not surprise me although I don't think everything is as good with the economy as the stock market suggests.

I think within the next 5 month's we will see a medium pullback of at least 2000 dow points.

I would like to take a position and "not" watch the markets as much as I do but I think there is big opportunity ahead of us in the next coming month's.

JMO though...

 

[caymanbrac12]

The toughest discipline is letting your profits ride. With the NYA moving to new all time highs this pretty much gives the escape velocity that was needed to confirm the price sequence from the August bottom was one of greater significance to the larger overall trend of the general market. Long live the bull and more power to the power accounts that dwell here. Ocean, you may easily make a hundred thousand or more in the next three months.

Not quite Birchtree. The easiest thing is letting you profits ride. The smart thing is knowing when to cut the losses - that's investing 101 - that's how the smart guys make money.

 

[ATCJeff]

a medium pullback of at least 2000 dow points.

Wow, what's your definition of a large pullback?

 

[poolman]

Wow, what's your definition of a large pullback?

Sorry, you are right.. --"large pullback"--. I have the same thought's though.. I think everything with the market is about as perfect as it can get. I don't think earning's are going to help this market although the momentum is good to 15000 with lot's of bumps and turns...

 

[Birchtree]

Cayman,

Certainly letting my profits run is easy for me, but the majority of our good members usually take the nickle and run. So for them staying long enough to catch the dime is a feat - chock it up to capital preservation I guess.

 

[poolman]

Cayman,

Certainly letting my profits run is easy for me, but the majority of our good members usually take the nickle and run. So for them staying long enough to catch the dime is a feat - chock it up to capital preservation I guess.

me me me... I'ts a Doctor Feelgood position and a good "fix" for a couple of day's... Maybe... LOL

 

[ocean]

I've been so busy with the autotracker and almost forgot that I have my own account talk thread. Good to have some old friends coming here.

Just let you know, my ocean account just hit the 6 mark a few days ago.

Ocean

 

[Birchtree]

I think ATCJeff is probably there also. I scored around 7/19 time frame and have now drifted back into the zone.

 

[ocean]

Jeff has been way over that mark a long time ago. He is working on the 7. (sorry Jeff, if you don't mind).