nnuut's Account Talk

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If they want to give us a tax cut as an emergency measure simply pull some oil out of the national petroleum reserve. Dropping the price of oil would be an efficient tax cut for all concerned.
 
Birchtree said:
If they want to give us a tax cut as an emergency measure simply pull some oil out of the national petroleum reserve. Dropping the price of oil would be an efficient tax cut for all concerned.
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That would be much better than a rebate that will go right back into the economy and further drive the poor old Sawbuck down the hole!:nuts: I know that they are talking incentives for business, that's GOOD, but temporary, for how long?:confused:
 
How to play a BEAR MARKET!!:cool:

[FONT=times new roman, times]BEAR MARKET RULES APPLY
Chart Spotlight[/FONT][FONT=times new roman, times]by Carl Swenlin[/FONT][FONT=times new roman, times]
DecisionPoint.com
[/FONT][FONT=tahoma,verdana,arial]January 18, 2008[/FONT]​

[FONT=Arial,Helvetica,Verdana]On January 8 the 50-EMA crossed down through the 200-EMA on the S&P 500 daily chart, generating a long-term sell signal and declaring that we are now in a bear market. This was confirmed this week when the weekly 17-EMA crossed down through the 43-EMA. Let me say that these signals are not 100% reliable, but there is a ton of additional supporting evidence, such as the decisive violation of the long-term rising trend line, and the violation of the double top neckline, seen on the chart below.[/FONT]
[FONT=Arial,Helvetica,Verdana]
080118_bear-1.gif
[/FONT]
[FONT=Arial,Helvetica,Verdana]The next chart presents a long-term view, which makes it more clear how serious the situation is.[/FONT]
[FONT=Arial,Helvetica,Verdana]
080118_bear-2.gif
[/FONT]
[FONT=Arial,Helvetica,Verdana]An important point is that this long-term sell signal is not so much an action signal as it is an information signal. What this means is that we need to begin interpreting charts and indicators in the context of a bear market template. For example:[/FONT]
[FONT=Arial,Helvetica,Verdana]* Oversold conditions should be viewed as extremely dangerous. Whereas in bull markets oversold lows usually present buying opportunities, in bear markets they can often resolve into more heavy selling.[/FONT]
[FONT=Arial,Helvetica,Verdana]* Overbought conditions in a bear market are most likely to signal that a trading top is at hand.[/FONT]
[FONT=Arial,Helvetica,Verdana]* While bear market rallies present great profit opportunities, long positions should be managed as short-term only.[/FONT]
[FONT=Arial,Helvetica,Verdana]The questions remain as to how far down prices will go and how long the bear market will last? In the shorter term we have a minimum downside projection from the double top neckline of about 1160 on the S&P 500 Index. That could mark a medium-term low from which a bear market rally could rise. For the longer-term, let's look at the 4-Year Cycle chart below. As you can see, the last cycle low was in mid-2006, so the next projected low is in mid-2010. Assuming that the cycle low and bear market low will be the same, we have a long, bloody road ahead. The most obvious downside target is the support at the 2002 lows, about 750 on the S&P 500.[/FONT] [FONT=Arial,Helvetica,Verdana]
080118_bear-4.gif
[/FONT]
[more] http://www.financialsense.com/editorials/swenlin/2008/0118.html
 
I'm no expert here...but should the PE ratio of the S&P (like 15ish) be an indicator that the market is MORE fairly valued in a relative sense than back in 2000 (30-40 ish)? Thus...we should be careful when drawing comparisons between that bear market and this one?

I personally think that this bears "750" is more like 1000-1100, IMHO.
 
nnuut said:
That would be much better than a rebate that will go right back into the economy
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and keep people buying THINGS-consuming! instead of refilling their savings accounts (we are the lowest saving nation in what the developed world? the entire world? And are about to enter into decades of boomer retirement debacle? and are currently in a credit debacle? Of course the whole concept is to get people to spend that 'free' cash instead of pay off their credit cards that they're behind on, or catch up with their mortgages or stash it away for retirement. Makes SO much sense to me! Rrrrrrr. Do I feel better yet? NO! It's just going to extend the debacle further and deeper and harder IMHO. I'd love to be wrong. IAC, I'll get over it. Eventually. :rolleyes:
 
I certainly felt we were in for some downtime, but I never expected we could be looking at 750 as the bottom...yikes...I was a little shocked at the 1160 number..but 750...sheesh..MAJOR BUMMER...

I certainly don't have any experience in long term bear markets...guess it's time for more education...maybe I'll just go to the F Fund for the next four years..

FS
 
Corepuncher said:
should the PE ratio of the S&P (like 15ish) be an indicator that the market is MORE fairly valued
Click to expand...

Be careful using PE as your sole indicator. Apparently, the average is somewhere around 15 but PE isn't a forward looking measure.

You're right on about the last bear market. We'll never again see a situation where stocks run up the way they did without any earnings. People are too smart for that. Commodities though, another story.

Take Swenlin's analysis for what it's worth. If technical analysis was the end al-be all, then we'd be at new highs after Swenlin's call on 12/14/07.... Bottom Line: Odds are in favor of the retest moving lower, but my guess is that long-term support will hold, and that the retest will be successful.
 
Yes! I think we need to tighten up and STOP these countries from digging any deeper into our pockets!:nuts:

Free trade fears on the rise

Economic anxiety has inspired a backlash against free trade, as a new Fortune poll shows, giving Democratic candidates a potent issue. Will it lead to protectionism?

By Nina Easton, Washington editor

Consumer outlook: Gloomy
Most of the 1,000 Americans surveyed by Fortune Magazine are very worried about a recession. See detailed results.

U.S. consumers are not happy with globalization and feel like they are getting the short end of the stick.

(Fortune Magazine) -- "We are the champions - of the world" may be the verse that rings out in stadiums across the U.S., but in the great game of global trade, Americans are increasingly feeling like the losers. A large majority - 68% - of those surveyed in a new Fortune poll says America's trading partners are benefiting the most from free trade, not the U.S. That sense of victimhood is changing America's attitude about doing business with the world.
We are a nation crawling into a fetal position, cramped by fear that America has lost control of its destiny in a fiercely competitive global economy. The fear is mostly about jobs lost overseas and wages capped by foreign competition.
But it is also fueled by lead-painted toys from China and border-hopping workers from Mexico, by the housing and credit crisis at home, and by the residue of vulnerability left by 9/11 and the wars that followed. Americans were willing to experiment with open borders during the exuberant 1990s. Today that mood has darkened. We are turning inward. Especially now, as the U.S. economy sputters, we are on the verge of becoming a country of economic nationalists. [more] http://money.cnn.com/2008/01/18/news/economy/worldgoaway.fortune/index.htm?postversion=2008011811
 
Rod said:
We don't WANT them to act... let this thing play out without "gov" intervention.;)
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Actually I agree with you, I think Ben should start slowly raising rates to support the Dollar. This would drive the USA into a recession, but like you say "Get It OVER With". Unless Bush comes up with a better idea than giving us back some of our Tax money (inflationary) it doesn't look good in the future. The Idea of supporting Business (temporarily, DUH!) is good and has merit! This is part of what we really need, not to JUST give them credit for business expenditures, but a little better deal with WORLD TRADE. I'm not a protectionist, but we have to support our manufacturing base ( what's left of it ) Business is trying to compete and we give the other countries a HUGE ADVANTAGE, THAT HAS TO CHANGE!!! :cool:
 
Now, I hate to see folks lose their pants... but IMO, it would be healthier in the long run for their wallets (and our's) if we simply allow Mr. Market to digest.

BTW, looking at the economic calendar for this week, there is no news slated for Friday. That should be a good day for licking wounds and evaluating positions.

http://www.bloomberg.com/markets/ecalendar/index.html
 
Jumped to 100% "G" COB today. Thursday looks a little HAIRY, rest in the "G" until this thing gets a direction.:cool:
 
nnuut said:
Jumped to 100% "G" COB today. Thursday looks a little HAIRY, rest in the "G" until this thing gets a direction.:cool:
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well i hope you left me a few frog legs in the ole FFfrog pond for tomorrow and what kind of wine goes good with them things :D
 
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Granny's Grape is really good with frog legs, but any kind will do. Hope it works out for you.:cool: I just think the "F" is a little too oversold right now with the FED wizards and Bush coming to the rescue!:suspicious:
 
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