nasa1974's Account Talk

[FAB1]

writing was on the wall that week. but I didnt want to be Out coming into may...Haa!!

 

[nasa1974]

Here is the how the week ending 5/7 faired in the <1% vs. "Buy & Hold" spreadsheet. This was the first week that I did a <1% move four times in one week let alone four days in a row. It has been a long time since I had that many <1% moves in a row.

The G and F funds where the winners last week with S and I being the largest loosers.

Good luck this week everybody.


Week ending 5/7
<1% $98,450.22 (GFCSI 34%, 5%, 22%, 22% & 17%)
80,5,5,5,5%$100,530.41 (GFCSI)
30,35,35%$96,390.43 (CSI)
G-100% $101,117.82
F-100% $103,223.70
C-100%$98,685.81
S-100%$103,277.34
I-100%$87,536.06



Difference between 4/30 & 5/7
<1% $5,051.10
80,5,5,5,5%$1,200.68
30,35,35%$8,590.94
G-100% $64.77
F-100% $450.15
C-100%$6,681.91
S-100%$9,730.13
I-100%$9,088.07

Week ending 4/30
<1% $103,501.32 (GFCSI 36%, 5%, 21%, 21% & 17%)
80,5,5,5,5%$101,731.09 (GFCSI)
30,35,35%$104,981.37 (CSI)
G-100% $101,053.06
F-100% $102,773.55
C-100%$105,367.71
S-100%$113,007.47
I-100%$96,624.13

 

[nasa1974]

So did the road to recovery start yesterday? I am guessing not. It seems that we will be in for a lot more roller coaster ups and downs. Strap in and get ready for some crazy days.

 

[nasa1974]

writing was on the wall that week. but I didnt want to be Out coming into may...Haa!!

FAB1, I agree. May 1st just seemed to early to use an IFT and then the bottom fell out of the market last week. Going to be a rough ride this week.

 

[FAB1]

well Im losing peanuts compared to you NASA...but that because peanuts is all I have in TSP so far. lol.

 

[nasa1974]

Definitely setting up to be one interesting day. I fund down almost 2% while the C and S are trying to climb out of the cellar. The lunch bunch will make a real mark today and we can only guess what will happen around 2:30.

Good luck everyone.

 

[nasa1974]

Well we have survived the lunch bunch worries. Now we have get by the two crucial deadlines 2:30pm EDT and 3:30pm EDT. How will the market react?

Wish I could get my crystal ball out of the shop. Broke it last week when I threw it against the wall.

 

[nasa1974]

What kind of surprises are instore for us today? Yesterday we survived the lunch bunch only to have to sellers take over around 2pm. Sure hope we can maintain todays current progress till the closing bell. :worried: Sure would be nice to be near 1170 (or better) by the end of the day.

Good luck everyone.

 

[nasa1974]

The S&P 500 just touched 1170 and hovering near 1169. We just might do it today. If we can break through 1170 then 1200 is not to far away.

 

[WorkFE]

I like the way you're thinking NASA.
I think I can, I think I can, I think I can:nuts:

 

[nasa1974]

Well the S&P 500 closed above 1170 for a really strong day. What will tomorrow bring? We could see 1200 by the end of the month. I will not hold my breath, but the way things have been evolving it is possible.

 

[nasa1974]

May sure is becoming a strange month. It is a month that I lost almost 10% but I could gain it all back before we get into June. Fingers crossed, but I won't bet the house on it.

It will be interesting to see how the tracker plays out tonight. Who moves up and who moves down.

 

[FAB1]

lets play What If...if I had gotten out on a certain day what was it Apr 26 and ift to be back in S last monday I would be in the Top 50. could have been that simple and held my gains. but i was greedy BT says greed is good always. I digress you must set some monthly goal keep current on global events and escape at the right time. For this half a year I have nothing to show for my TSP. might as well stayed in G all that time.

 

[nasa1974]

lets play What If...if I had gotten out on a certain day what was it Apr 26 and ift to be back in S last monday I would be in the Top 50. could have been that simple and held my gains. but i was greedy BT says greed is good always. I digress you must set some monthly goal keep current on global events and escape at the right time. For this half a year I have nothing to show for my TSP. might as well stayed in G all that time.

FAB, you're right you have to set some goals and limits. If you decide to play high risk then you take the chance on the huge spikes up and down. You reach a goal then you reduce the risk. It all comes down to what kind of game you want to play. You had a nice day yesterday and you are positive on the tracker. Hopefully that has some bearing on your real account.
For me the tracker is a tool, just part of the game. It puts all of use on a level playing field. I do not use it to say "hey so and so is doing better than me. I have to change my thinking so I can be better then they are." That would just get me into trouble. Sometimes it is fun to use it for bragging rights.
I play WHAT IF's sometimes but I have learned not to get serious about "what if". If I had made my first IFT from 50% C/S to 100% G on 4/23, I would have been at #60 with a 11.27% on the tracker. Then reading the crystal ball I would have moved back to 50% C/S on 5/7 and gained maybe another 6.88% as of yesterday. That would put me around 18.15% on the tracker and position #3.
I guess the point I am trying to make is that we have to invest out TSP within our comfort zone and we all have a different comfort zone. But everybody on this MB wants to help everyone make money.
Good luck FAB and stay true.

 

[maabee6]

I guess the point I am trying to make is that we have to invest out TSP within our comfort zone and we all have a different comfort zone. But everybody on this MB wants to help everyone make money.

Thank you Nasa1974, you said exactly how I feel. I too get caught up in trying to capture the biggest gains possible and lose focus of what my risk tolerance is. We do have to figure out what our comfort zone is and make our IFT's accordingly. Yes, I could have made my 100% on 5/7, but I was being greedy and missed the opportunity.

"Patience is trusting in God's timing"

 

[jdphx]

Good advice Nasa...

Too often we forget these "golden rules".



Hard to NOT be guilty of forgetting that at least sometimes!!

 

[nasa1974]

I do not think that greed really has much to do with it. It is tough to be greedy with only 2 IFT's a month. I think what happens is that you do not want to make a move to early and then get stuck in the G fund for the rest of the month. It might be more fear of being out of the game than greed.

That kind of happened to me two weeks ago. On 4/23 I really thought about moving to the lily pad. I had reached a fund high and thought maybe I should go into protect mode. But the rally was moving forward and May has typically been a good month. So I stayed put. I debated again with making a move to G on 5/1. But decided not to because again May has typically been a good month and I didn't want to use up one of my two IFT's on the first trading day of the month. So again I stayed put and the bottom fell out of the market. I need about 1.5% to get back to where I was on 4/23. In just two weeks I lost almost 3 months of profit taking.

I am still in my comfort zone but sometimes you have to look past the numbers and go with your gut.

 

[nasa1974]

Right now not looking good for the C & S funds. But not to far away from closing out on a positive note. :blink:

Good Luck everyone.

 

[FAB1]

what you said. mirrored what i was thinking at about the same times. then BOOM! Have you also wonder just who is trading these days. I have to wonder if there are more sitting on the sidelines or worse have no intentions of ever investing again. Maybe this why the gov. is eyeing the people 401Ks.

 

[nasa1974]

Just a little surprised how the market finished yesterday. Asia and Europe was pretty strong but it just didn't make a difference here. The C & S funds just couldn't stay in the green zone. The two funds teased us most of the day. This morning Europe and Asia are down so who knows what will happen here. Friday's have typically been a negative trading day. Good luck everyone.