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Wall Street: Here comes the hard part

Investors wade into the heaviest week of corporate reporting yet. Reports on GDP, housing, consumer confidence and manufacturing also due.

By Alexandra Twin, CNNMoney.com senior writer

Last Updated: July 27, 2009: 3:44 AM ET

"NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- Can a recharged stock market rally withstand the biggest week of corporate profit reports yet?

Maybe.

"As long as earnings continue to surprise to the upside and revenues aren't disasterous, the market should move higher in this period," said Timothy Ghriskey, chief investment officer at Solaris Asset Management.
"But then we get to August, when Wall Street tends to go on vacation and you could see some consolidation then," he said.

This week brings profit reports from 146 of the S&P 500 companies, or 29% of the broad index. That list includes a number of oil services firms, including Dow components Chevron and Exxon Mobil.

Other big companies due to report include Dow stocks Travelers, Walt Disney and Verizon Communications.........."

Here is the link: http://money.cnn.com/2009/07/26/markets/sunday_weekahead/index.htm
 
This market is driving me crazy.
Again the market is negative before noon so I set my spreadsheet up for a <1% move. But, nnnooooo, it goes positive by closing time. :blink:
Of course that is a good thing for those that are in the market. :D It just screws up my <1% data. :mad:
 
nasa1974 said:
This market is driving me crazy.
Again the market is negative before noon so I set my spreadsheet up for a <1% move. But, nnnooooo, it goes positive by closing time. :blink:
Of course that is a good thing for those that are in the market. :D It just screws up my <1% data. :mad:
Click to expand...

This type of change must be expected. The door swings both ways, when
you decide NOT to enter the market from the (G) and the market turns to
the upside come noon, you face the opposite situation. Only this time, you
are exposed to a positive outcome, simply because the market turns to the
downside by closing and you look like a genius. Isn't that why you use the
<1% IFT Method to begin with. "Just in case your wrong and the market
continues its rally". You can add to your position and still gain more then
the (G) Fund. If we could accurately predict the market drop, we wouldn't
use the method, we'd simple "get out of dodge".

Or, did I read your post incorrectly and your data requires more ajustments
and that fact alone becomes frustrating ?

Thought I stop by, say hi and throw my two and three quarter cents into
the mass spectrometer and see if it stirs interest. ;)
 
Thanks for the drive-by SB.
No the noon deadline just messes with the overall data. You do pick up some shares but at a more expensive price. :mad:
Of course today worked out just fine for the <1%. :nuts:
Hope for a bounce tomorrow. :D
 
How long does it take to post meeting minutes???:confused: Still no May meeting minutes from the FRTIB and it has been over two months since the May meeting. :mad: How difficult is it to transcribe the information and get it posted? :suspicious:

Off my soapbox. :nuts:
 
Sometimes you do not see the forest for the trees. Missed this little tidbit that was posted on the FRTIB website last month. Enjoy!!!! ;)

http://www.frtib.gov/pdf/FOIA/TSP-Reg-Chgs_2009June19_5-CFR-1600.pdf


Federal Register
29111​

Vol. 74, No. 117​

Friday, June 19, 2009​


FEDERAL RETIREMENT THRIFT INVESTMENT BOARD​


5 CFR Part 1600​


Employee Contribution Elections and Contribution Allocations​



​
​
​
​
AGENCY: Federal Retirement Thrift Investment Board.​


ACTION: Interim final rule with request for comments.​



SUMMARY: The Federal Retirement Thrift Investment Board (FRTIB) is amending its regulation pertaining to the timing of agency contributions to reflect changes the FRTIB anticipates will be made by the Thrift Savings Plan Enhancement Act of 2009 (Act). The Act provides that Agency Automatic (1%) Contributions and Agency Matching Contributions shall commence immediately. The regulatory amendment is necessary because FRTIB regulations follow current law, which provides that Agency Automatic (1%) Contributions and Agency Matching Contributions shall not commence until the equivalent of the second open season that begins after the employee commenced employment. The FRTIB is setting a August 1, 2009 effective date for this regulation to allow employing agencies sufficient time to make the necessary computer programming changes to implement it.​


DATES: Effective Date: This interim final rule takes effect either June 19, 2009...........
 
Just came across this site. Did anybody know about this one??:confused: Will have to spend some time checking it out.

http://www.regulations.gov/search/Regs/home.html#home



let your voice be heard

Regulations.gov is your source for U.S. government regulations and related documents. On this site you can find, read and comment on documents. Share your knowledge and make your voice count.
 
What a strange month July was. Members that where in the market early second quarter deciding to jump to the (G)arage because the technicals just didn't look right. Members that had been in the (G)arage for a long time deciding to jump on the rally train. What will August bring us???? Volumn in July was so so and typically not a good month for profit taking, surprised everyone. But the noon trading deadline bit a lot of members and the late in the day sell offs just got spooky. On average August is usually a good month for going and staying positive, vacation time for Wall Street and low volumn. So is the market oversold? Will the shorts or longs win this one??
 
Thursday I posted the link to the FRTIB meeting minutes for May (only 2 and a half months to post minutes). Late Thursday or early Friday they also posted the June minutes. Haven't read them yet but James did put the link up on one of his accounts. Thanks James.
 
Well even sitting in the (G)arage for a week still made July a good month for me. Lost out on an extra 5% but I do not regret my decision to jump into G. That was an easy decision for me at the time. It was tougher to to pull the trigger and jump back into the market. In my real account, July came in at positive 3.42% and YTD I am -0.13%. Almost back to my end of year numbers for 2008. I will post the July numbers from my <1% excell spreadsheet over the next couple of days. Good luck everyone.
 
nasa1974 said:
What a strange month July was. Members that where in the market early second quarter deciding to jump to the (G)arage because the technicals just didn't look right. Members that had been in the (G)arage for a long time deciding to jump on the rally train. What will August bring us???? Volumn in July was so so and typically not a good month for profit taking, surprised everyone. But the noon trading deadline bit a lot of members and the late in the day sell offs just got spooky. On average August is usually a good month for going and staying positive, vacation time for Wall Street and low volumn. So is the market oversold? Will the shorts or longs win this one??
Click to expand...

In comparison to previous July's, a strange month indeed ! With all the big players vacationing in the Hamptons, a few die hards have managed to create this summertime rally. August appears to suck during the first few days and the last few days of trading. In the middle looks to be nothing short of a continuation of the current rally. August could end up being as strange as July. Today, the futures hover around +1% with Tech Stocks looking even stronger. That bauds well for the (S) Fund. If the dollar continues to drop (as I expect) then the (I) Fund could finally take over as the leading TSP Fund to the plus side. After a -40% average in 2008, it wouldn't be all that surprising to see 2009 turn out a +20% for the year. With the (C)+11%, (S)+17% and the (I)17% very close to those figures on a YTD basis, the train might need to refuel by seeing some profit taking. Its going to happen, but the million dollar question is "when"? For me, I simply fear that my desire to ride this train (at this point) could result in a +2% gain, then a -6% loss. For now, I'm leaning towards going "In" early as my gut says to stay out. Reverse Psychology if you will. ;)
 
Here are the totals from my Excel spreadsheet through the end of July 2009.

<1% Option $118,295.73
Buy & Hold %'s
80, 5, 5, 5, 5 $103,700.15
30-C, 35-S, 35-I $114,835.52
100% C $109,333.96
100% S $116,957.71
100% I $117,428.96

DISCLAIMER - The <1% numbers could be off a little. I would be more than happy to share the information with anyone that would like to verify my calculations.

Just a reminder. I started each fund with $100,000.00. The <1% Option started at (GFCSI) 80,5,5,5,5 and ended the month of July at: G-3.93%, F-4.95%, C-29.81%,
S-29.88% and I-31.43%. A decision will have to be made soon whether to stay at current percentages or roll back to the beginning and start over again.
 
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