MrJohnRoss' Account Talk

[bmneveu]

If anyone knows of some other ETF's that did especially well during the last rally, let us know. This forum is for sharing and learning, so don't keep it a secret.

This got me thinking about what a 3x bear oil fund looks like right about now. I found DWTI. Only October 15th it opened at 42.39. On December 5th it closed at 70.24. At a quick glance that looks like about a 75% gain during your time period. But if you zoom out, it has almost a 500% gain since late June. Now THAT is nuts!

 

[MrJohnRoss]

Thanks, I didn't have much success this year in the IRA, I'm curious what allocation % you used this year to counter your long positions.

In general, I don't like to exceed 10% on any one stock/ETF holding. However, my recent TZA purchases put me somewhere between 15-20%.

I'm crazy like that. :nuts:

(As if I had to tell you that).

 

[MrJohnRoss]

This got me thinking about what a 3x bear oil fund looks like right about now. I found DWTI. Only October 15th it opened at 42.39. On December 5th it closed at 70.24. At a quick glance that looks like about a 75% gain during your time period. But if you zoom out, it has almost a 500% gain since late June. Now THAT is nuts!

Gooood find Mr bmneveu! Wowza!

 

[jpcavin]

I've been watching UWTI. It closed at 5.51. I'm thinking about buying in as soon as oil stabilizes.

 

[MrJohnRoss]

I've been watching UWTI. It closed at 5.51. I'm thinking about buying in as soon as oil stabilizes.

Ooooh! 3X Ultra Long Crude! That will be a nice rocket ride when the oil market gets a relief rally!

Thanks for sharing!

 

[jpcavin]

NP. I knew you'd like that one

 

[Sensei]

I've been watching UWTI. It closed at 5.51. I'm thinking about buying in as soon as oil stabilizes.

Ooooh! 3X Ultra Long Crude! That will be a nice rocket ride when the oil market gets a relief rally!

Thanks for sharing!

I've been DCA'ing $100/wk into UCO, which is 2X long crude. I didn't have the stomach for 3X. Unfortunately, I started when oil was about $74 a barrel. I hope it stays in the $50s for a few months so I can accumulate some shares.

 

[MrJohnRoss]

I've been DCA'ing $100/wk into UCO, which is 2X long crude. I didn't have the stomach for 3X. Unfortunately, I started when oil was about $74 a barrel. I hope it stays in the $50s for a few months so I can accumulate some shares.

Nice! Sounds like you should have a nice stash when all is said and done. Good luck!

 

[Sensei]

Nice! Sounds like you should have a nice stash when all is said and done. Good luck!

That's what I thought when I started buying uranium when the price dropped 50% after the Fukushima disaster. 3+ years of DCA'ing, and I'm still down 40% on the deal. I've stopped buying at this point. I'm just going to sit on it and wait for a nuclear renaissance. I hope the same doesn't happen with oil.

 

[MrJohnRoss]

Chart of S&P 500 with comments:




SPX bounced off of the 50 SMA, and is right in the support area previously mentioned. Unfortunately, it appears that there is just too much downside momentum to stop it at this point. We may get an oversold bounce from time to time, but my best guess is a test of the 50% Fibonacci level near 1950. The 200 day (not shown) is also near the 1950 area as well. That would be a logical area for a decent bounce.

Of course, logic doesn't always apply to the markets, and the price of oil is going to be the driving force of the financial world for a while, so everything is a big question mark right now.

On a side note, 6 of the top 20 (30%) on the AT are fully invested in either the S or C Fund right now. It'll be interesting to see how things shake out during the final few weeks of the year.

Good luck!

 

[airlift]

Chart of S&P 500 with comments:


View attachment 31600

SPX bounced off of the 50 SMA, and is right in the support area previously mentioned. Unfortunately, it appears that there is just too much downside momentum to stop it at this point. We may get an oversold bounce from time to time, but my best guess is a test of the 50% Fibonacci level near 1950. The 200 day (not shown) is also near the 1950 area as well. That would be a logical area for a decent bounce.

Of course, logic doesn't always apply to the markets, and the price of oil is going to be the driving force of the financial world for a while, so everything is a big question mark right now.

On a side note, 6 of the top 20 (30%) on the AT are fully invested in either the S or C Fund right now. It'll be interesting to see how things shake out during the final few weeks of the year.

Good luck!

MJR,

Thanks for the Chart. BTW, comparisons have been made with the similarities on the SPX this December vs. 2007, and 2008. Can you or anyone else please shed some light on whether or not these comparisons have any validity? Tia

 

[MrJohnRoss]

MJR,

Thanks for the Chart. BTW, comparisons have been made with the similarities on the SPX this December vs. 2007, and 2008. Can you or anyone else please shed some light on whether or not these comparisons have any validity? Tia

The similarities interesting, but I'd be reluctant to make trades based on them. I prefer good ol' fashioned technical analysis, myself.

As the old saying (and Smith Barney commercial) goes... "We make money the old fashioned way... we EARN it!"

(Some of you young buckaroos may never have heard that before.)

*That's a scary thought*

 

[JTH]

I've been DCA'ing $100/wk into UCO, which is 2X long crude. I didn't have the stomach for 3X. Unfortunately, I started when oil was about $74 a barrel. I hope it stays in the $50s for a few months so I can accumulate some shares.

Sry for the highly compressed UCO chart, looking at the PnF .50% box scale, it looks like momentum is beginning to fizzle. It is difficult to believe that such a drastic price swing can decline in such a short period of time without a counter action, perhaps the rubber band is getting ready to bounce back...

View attachment 31624

 

[MrJohnRoss]

Sry for the highly compressed UCO chart, looking at the PnF .50% box scale, it looks like momentum is beginning to fizzle. It is difficult to believe that such a drastic price swing can decline in such a short period of time without a counter action, perhaps the rubber band is getting ready to bounce back...

Couldn't agree more. I'm thinking the rubber band is getting pretty stretched to the extreme. There could be some very volatile days ahead for both oil and the stock market.

I *may* take a shot at one of the long oil ETF's when the time is right. How about you?

 

[JTH]

Couldn't agree more. I'm thinking the rubber band is getting pretty stretched to the extreme. There could be some very volatile days ahead for both oil and the stock market.

I *may* take a shot at one of the long oil ETF's when the time is right. How about you?

Thinking about it, but that's a lot of risk and I've speculated a bit too much this year, would like to see a floor get built & tested. I'll certainly be keeping an eye on it.

 

[jkenjohnson]

Thinking about it, but that's a lot of risk and I've speculated a bit too much this year, would like to see a floor get built & tested. I'll certainly be keeping an eye on it.

Probably get a dead cat bounce at least today.

 

[WorkFE]

Futures up big but that was the case yesterday as well. I do expect us to squeak out a gain today. (Size matters)

 

[MrJohnRoss]

Is the bottom in place? I've had an itch on my trigger finger all morning, but trying to keep my logical "Mr. Spock" brain in control. We're certainly closer to a bottom than we were two weeks ago.

The probabilities of this being the bottom are about 40/60, IMHO. We may not be quite there yet. However, there may be a lot of pressure to get the end of year market rally in place. Window dressing will commence, etc.

I'll let Mr. Spock watch the indicators to let me know when the tides have turned. *grumble grumble*

 

[MrJohnRoss]

Investors Who Ignore Treasury's Warning Will Pay the Price

"... Although the Dow Jones Industrial Average DJIA, +0.98% can experience an aggressive rally between now and the end of the year, what we have seen in December when coupled with the warning from the U.S. Treasury Department sets the stage for what everyone should expect in 2015. Proactive, risk-controlled trading strategies will prevail; buy-and-hold strategies will not do nearly as well as they have; and the risk of material market declines will remain high throughout the year."

Couldn't have said it better myself.

 

[konakathy]

Is the bottom in place? I've had an itch on my trigger finger all morning, but trying to keep my logical "Mr. Spock" brain in control. We're certainly closer to a bottom than we were two weeks ago.

The probabilities of this being the bottom are about 40/60, IMHO. We may not be quite there yet. However, there may be a lot of pressure to get the end of year market rally in place. Window dressing will commence, etc.

I'll let Mr. Spock watch the indicators to let me know when the tides have turned. *grumble grumble*