konakathy
Well-known member
I guess this means I won't be seeing any pictures of you dancing in the rain on Instagram?
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MrJohnRoss' Account Talk
- Thread starter MrJohnRoss
- Start date
I guess this means I won't be seeing any pictures of you dancing in the rain on Instagram?
MrJohnRoss
Well-known member
I guess this means I won't be seeing any pictures of you dancing in the rain on Instagram?
Is that a request?
Haha, jk.
konakathy
Well-known member
MrJohnRoss
Well-known member
Still thinking the S&P will need to get to the 2000-1980 area before this market gets washed out. Then the tides should turn, and the year end rally can begin. I've got plenty of cash in my accounts to scoop up some beaten down gems. In the meantime, it's nice to see my balance go higher instead of suffering from a "buy and hold" mentality.
weatherweenie
Well-known member
Are you on buying anything oil related? ERX has been beaten down pretty severely.
MrJohnRoss
Well-known member
WW, funny you should ask... holders of ERY are making money hand over fist, but we all know that every trend must come to an end. ERX is getting slaughtered now, but there will come a day when the tides will turn, and it will make some people a lot of money. Just like TNA/TZA, if you can time it right, there are always ways to make money in this market.
The only question is... do you or I have the skill to time it right. Don't know about you, but for me, that's the big question mark. I'll be watching these two ETF's over the next few weeks, and may put some money on the table when the time is right.
Good luck!
weatherweenie
Well-known member
I'm sitting on enough losers now. AGQ is one of them. For now it looks like the prudent move is to wait for ERX to show signs that it will stop falling.
MrJohnRoss,
I will appreciate that you post if and whenever you decide to buy these? Tia.
MrJohnRoss
Well-known member
Absolutely. Be careful of short term counter-trend rallies and head fakes.
MrJohnRoss
Well-known member
No prob. Whether or not I commit $ to it is another story.
MrJohnRoss
Well-known member
One of the stocks I see doing well during this downturn is a well known tech stock....
...wait for it...
Yep, I think FB is getting ready for a ramp higher. PPO, Stoch and RSI are all climbing, and it appears to be getting ready to break out of a consolidation phase. It's near 78.50 today. If it can clear the recent high of 81.16 (convincingly), then you may see it do very well in the near term.
*This is not a recommendation to buy, sell, or trade any security. For educational purposes only.*
...wait for it...
Yep, I think FB is getting ready for a ramp higher. PPO, Stoch and RSI are all climbing, and it appears to be getting ready to break out of a consolidation phase. It's near 78.50 today. If it can clear the recent high of 81.16 (convincingly), then you may see it do very well in the near term.
*This is not a recommendation to buy, sell, or trade any security. For educational purposes only.*
MrJohnRoss
Well-known member
Meanwhile, GOOGL, NFLX & TSLA have been pounded for weeks.
MrJohnRoss
Well-known member
-310.12
Dang, that's a big number. "Investors" are afraid to hold stocks over the weekend.
Will we get a bounce on Monday?
Is this the bottom?
Whatchu think.
Dang, that's a big number. "Investors" are afraid to hold stocks over the weekend.
Will we get a bounce on Monday?
Is this the bottom?
Whatchu think.
Nordic
Member
I jumped out of F and into S today in anticipation that we are at least very close to the bottom of this pullback, but I could easily see the markets shaving another 1% or so before a rally. Then again, we could lose another 2-3% before a rally begins, so next week should be interesting.
O
OBXTrader
Guest
I would expect caution on Monday rather than a bounce. In the meantime, I draw 3 more days of G Fund interest and look at next week.
MJR,
I want to take the liberty of using your thread to ask you or anyone else who might shed light on the subject. Assuming that we get a bounce next week, would the SPX show a better performance as the index for Big Cap stocks, or is a better play to buy the 3x leveraged TNA, or ERX to get a better performance? I ask this, because I have seen prior recoveries and bounces where big caps make a better gains in the initial stages of the bounce. However, it might well be that small caps are not out of favor even with this big drop in the price of crude oil. I am really concerned that we could be looking at generally lower valuations in the price of stocks. Anyone, please comment. Good luck to you and all! Tia
MrJohnRoss
Well-known member
It's difficult to predict which index is going to perform best on any future rallies, but here's some food for thought. Below is a graph of the S Fund vs the C Fund on a weekly basis.
After underperforming the C Fund in early 2012, the S Fund stairstepped it's way to higher performance beginning in Oct 2012, and continued until early spring of this year. It's outperformance peaked in March of this year, as C (large caps) have clearly performed better from that point forward. You can also look at the Autotracker, which shows C has a big margin over S this year.
Does this mean that C is going to outperform S forever? Of course not. Does it mean that the next market rally is guaranteed to raise large caps more than small caps? Certainly not.
The only thing we can go by is the current trend, which is showing that large has been outperforming small, and that will continue until the trend is broken. I'd keep my eye on that trend line if I were you, as the PPO looks to be forming a large cupping base, which could mean the tides may be slowly turning. Timing is everything.
I'd also keep my eyes on the daily graph of the S vs C, as it may give an early indication of which fund may perform best going forward.
I'll also be performing some analysis this weekend on some of the better performing ETF's during the recent October rally. That may give us some clues as to where the better performers may come from on any future rallies. I'll perform that analysis and post the results later this weekend.
Good luck to us!
After underperforming the C Fund in early 2012, the S Fund stairstepped it's way to higher performance beginning in Oct 2012, and continued until early spring of this year. It's outperformance peaked in March of this year, as C (large caps) have clearly performed better from that point forward. You can also look at the Autotracker, which shows C has a big margin over S this year.
Does this mean that C is going to outperform S forever? Of course not. Does it mean that the next market rally is guaranteed to raise large caps more than small caps? Certainly not.
The only thing we can go by is the current trend, which is showing that large has been outperforming small, and that will continue until the trend is broken. I'd keep my eye on that trend line if I were you, as the PPO looks to be forming a large cupping base, which could mean the tides may be slowly turning. Timing is everything.
I'd also keep my eyes on the daily graph of the S vs C, as it may give an early indication of which fund may perform best going forward.
I'll also be performing some analysis this weekend on some of the better performing ETF's during the recent October rally. That may give us some clues as to where the better performers may come from on any future rallies. I'll perform that analysis and post the results later this weekend.
Good luck to us!
MrJohnRoss
Well-known member
[h=1]"This $550 Billion Mania Ends Badly," Energy Companies Are "Shut Out Of The Credit Market"[/h]
Bloomberg: the danger of stimulus-induced bubbles is starting to play out in the market for energy-company debt - as HY energy spreads near 1000bps - all thanks to the mal-investment boom sparked by artificially low rates manufactured by The Fed. "It's been super cheap," notes one credit analyst. That is over!! As oil & gas companies are “virtually shut out of the market" and will have to "rely on a combination of asset sales" and their credit lines. Welcome to the boom-induced bust...
Bloomberg: the danger of stimulus-induced bubbles is starting to play out in the market for energy-company debt - as HY energy spreads near 1000bps - all thanks to the mal-investment boom sparked by artificially low rates manufactured by The Fed. "It's been super cheap," notes one credit analyst. That is over!! As oil & gas companies are “virtually shut out of the market" and will have to "rely on a combination of asset sales" and their credit lines. Welcome to the boom-induced bust...
MrJohnRoss
Well-known member
Top Seven Leveraged ETF's Performance During the Last Stock Market Rally
Good morning and happy Sunday to you.
The stock market, as measured by the S&P 500, made an important bottom on Oct 15 at 1820.66. It rallied from that point until it's recent peak on Dec 5 at 2079.47.
If you had perfect timing skills, and you bought at those two points, you'd have pocketed a nice gain of 14.2%. Not bad for 35 trading days. (My market entry and exit was Oct 16 through Nov 14, BTW, proof that I am not omniscient). :embarrest:
However, if you had perfect timing skills AND you had perfect foresight, instead of making 14.2%, you could have made 113.6% using the right ETF.
I currently track 32 leveraged ETF's. Some of them are 2X leveraged, and some of them are 3X leveraged. Some are not directly related to the stock market (gold, silver, miners, etc.).
Here is the list of top performers, as measured by a perfect entry (exact bottom) and exit (exact top):
ERX - 3X Energy: 50.0%
FAS - 3X Financial: 57.1%
SOXL - 3X Semiconductor: 113.6%
TNA - 3X Small Cap: 47.8%
TQQQ - 3X QQQ: 62.3%
UPRO - 3X S&P 500: 49.9%
XIV - Inverse VIX: 65.1%
Of course, I would gladly take any one of the above returns, but as you can see, SOXL performed best. This doesn't mean it's going to perform best during the next market rally. Perhaps semiconductors took an especially brutal beating during the last market downturn, and they won't fall as much this time. That remains to be seen.
Large caps performed slightly better than small caps, as measured by UPRO (+49.9%) vs TNA (+47.8%). Also, large cap NASDAQ (QQQ) performed better than the S&P500. Energy did well (+50.0%), but it's performance is going to be tied more to the price of oil going forward than directly to the price of stocks, IMHO.
BTW, there are plenty of other ETF's that performed exceptionally well that are NOT leveraged. BIB (Biotechnology) performed extremely well during the rally, which returned +62.0%. I picked some BIB up a little too late (Oct 16), and sold too early (Nov 14), but still managed to eek out a measly +19.4% gain, as I previously posted. I also managed to ride TNA during the same time span for a nice gain of +24.7%.
If anyone knows of some other ETF's that did especially well during the last rally, let us know. This forum is for sharing and learning, so don't keep it a secret.
Oh, by the way... yes I know that XIV is not really a leverage ETF, but it might as well be, since it's so volatile.
I'll be busy all day Monday and most of the day on Tuesday making rocket fuel, so I won't have time to post much. Wouldn't be surprised to see the market open lower on Monday but then reverse itself and close higher. I'm also of the opinion that this market has a ways to go before we find a bottom, so I'm not making any IFT's into stocks just yet. Stay tuned. Volatility may get high.
Have a great rest of your weekend.
JR
Good morning and happy Sunday to you.
The stock market, as measured by the S&P 500, made an important bottom on Oct 15 at 1820.66. It rallied from that point until it's recent peak on Dec 5 at 2079.47.
If you had perfect timing skills, and you bought at those two points, you'd have pocketed a nice gain of 14.2%. Not bad for 35 trading days. (My market entry and exit was Oct 16 through Nov 14, BTW, proof that I am not omniscient). :embarrest:
However, if you had perfect timing skills AND you had perfect foresight, instead of making 14.2%, you could have made 113.6% using the right ETF.
I currently track 32 leveraged ETF's. Some of them are 2X leveraged, and some of them are 3X leveraged. Some are not directly related to the stock market (gold, silver, miners, etc.).
Here is the list of top performers, as measured by a perfect entry (exact bottom) and exit (exact top):
ERX - 3X Energy: 50.0%
FAS - 3X Financial: 57.1%
SOXL - 3X Semiconductor: 113.6%
TNA - 3X Small Cap: 47.8%
TQQQ - 3X QQQ: 62.3%
UPRO - 3X S&P 500: 49.9%
XIV - Inverse VIX: 65.1%
Of course, I would gladly take any one of the above returns, but as you can see, SOXL performed best. This doesn't mean it's going to perform best during the next market rally. Perhaps semiconductors took an especially brutal beating during the last market downturn, and they won't fall as much this time. That remains to be seen.
Large caps performed slightly better than small caps, as measured by UPRO (+49.9%) vs TNA (+47.8%). Also, large cap NASDAQ (QQQ) performed better than the S&P500. Energy did well (+50.0%), but it's performance is going to be tied more to the price of oil going forward than directly to the price of stocks, IMHO.
BTW, there are plenty of other ETF's that performed exceptionally well that are NOT leveraged. BIB (Biotechnology) performed extremely well during the rally, which returned +62.0%. I picked some BIB up a little too late (Oct 16), and sold too early (Nov 14), but still managed to eek out a measly +19.4% gain, as I previously posted. I also managed to ride TNA during the same time span for a nice gain of +24.7%.
If anyone knows of some other ETF's that did especially well during the last rally, let us know. This forum is for sharing and learning, so don't keep it a secret.
Oh, by the way... yes I know that XIV is not really a leverage ETF, but it might as well be, since it's so volatile.
I'll be busy all day Monday and most of the day on Tuesday making rocket fuel, so I won't have time to post much. Wouldn't be surprised to see the market open lower on Monday but then reverse itself and close higher. I'm also of the opinion that this market has a ways to go before we find a bottom, so I'm not making any IFT's into stocks just yet. Stay tuned. Volatility may get high.
Have a great rest of your weekend.
JR
JTH
Well-known member
Top Seven Leveraged ETF's Performance During the Last Stock Market Rally
Good morning and happy Sunday to you.
The stock market, as measured by the S&P 500, made an important bottom on Oct 15 at 1820.66. It rallied from that point until it's recent peak on Dec 5 at 2079.47.
If you had perfect timing skills, and you bought at those two points, you'd have pocketed a nice gain of 14.2%. Not bad for 35 trading days. (My market entry and exit was Oct 16 through Nov 14, BTW, proof that I am not omniscient). :embarrest:
However, if you had perfect timing skills AND you had perfect foresight, instead of making 14.2%, you could have made 113.6% using the right ETF.
I currently track 32 leveraged ETF's. Some of them are 2X leveraged, and some of them are 3X leveraged. Some are not directly related to the stock market (gold, silver, miners, etc.).
Here is the list of top performers, as measured by a perfect entry (exact bottom) and exit (exact top):
ERX - 3X Energy: 50.0%
FAS - 3X Financial: 57.1%
SOXL - 3X Semiconductor: 113.6%
TNA - 3X Small Cap: 47.8%
TQQQ - 3X QQQ: 62.3%
UPRO - 3X S&P 500: 49.9%
XIV - Inverse VIX: 65.1%
Of course, I would gladly take any one of the above returns, but as you can see, SOXL performed best. This doesn't mean it's going to perform best during the next market rally. Perhaps semiconductors took an especially brutal beating during the last market downturn, and they won't fall as much this time. That remains to be seen.
Large caps performed slightly better than small caps, as measured by UPRO (+49.9%) vs TNA (+47.8%). Also, large cap NASDAQ (QQQ) performed better than the S&P500. Energy did well (+50.0%), but it's performance is going to be tied more to the price of oil going forward than directly to the price of stocks, IMHO.
BTW, there are plenty of other ETF's that performed exceptionally well that are NOT leveraged. BIB (Biotechnology) performed extremely well during the rally, which returned +62.0%. I picked some BIB up a little too late (Oct 16), and sold too early (Nov 14), but still managed to eek out a measly +19.4% gain, as I previously posted. I also managed to ride TNA during the same time span for a nice gain of +24.7%.
If anyone knows of some other ETF's that did especially well during the last rally, let us know. This forum is for sharing and learning, so don't keep it a secret.
Oh, by the way... yes I know that XIV is not really a leverage ETF, but it might as well be, since it's so volatile.
I'll be busy all day Monday and most of the day on Tuesday making rocket fuel, so I won't have time to post much. Wouldn't be surprised to see the market open lower on Monday but then reverse itself and close higher. I'm also of the opinion that this market has a ways to go before we find a bottom, so I'm not making any IFT's into stocks just yet. Stay tuned. Volatility may get high.
Have a great rest of your weekend.
JR
Thanks, I didn't have much success this year in the IRA, I'm curious what allocation % you used this year to counter your long positions.
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