MrJohnRoss' Account Talk

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Every time I jump in at the end of a month so that I can be in on the first and have the option of moving to safety and back into stocks in that month...I get burned. The market can be a cruel teacher, but that cruelty sticks in my memory better. The lesson I learned is that I can throw that "be in on the first" strategy in the trash. It's nice when it happens and works out, but when its been my primary strategy I've gotten burned every time. In reality you can perform very well with 4-8 well-timed IFTs per year. I just have to learn when those times are.
 
MrBowl said:
Every time I jump in at the end of a month so that I can be in on the first and have the option of moving to safety and back into stocks in that month...I get burned. The market can be a cruel teacher, but that cruelty sticks in my memory better. The lesson I learned is that I can throw that "be in on the first" strategy in the trash. It's nice when it happens and works out, but when its been my primary strategy I've gotten burned every time. In reality you can perform very well with 4-8 well-timed IFTs per year. I just have to learn when those times are.
Click to expand...

Well said!
 
MrBowl said:
Every time I jump in at the end of a month so that I can be in on the first and have the option of moving to safety and back into stocks in that month...I get burned. The market can be a cruel teacher, but that cruelty sticks in my memory better. The lesson I learned is that I can throw that "be in on the first" strategy in the trash. It's nice when it happens and works out, but when its been my primary strategy I've gotten burned every time. In reality you can perform very well with 4-8 well-timed IFTs per year. I just have to learn when those times are.
Click to expand...

I agree 100%. It shouldn't be used as a timing strategy. Just wanted to throw that out there on a day like today, where the market starts off down over 100 points. A lot of people panic and run for the exits. Instead, take a deep breath and think about your best strategy. Going to cash on the 30th of the month may not be your best option.
 
It's great when it works, and I think about being in on the final day of the month every month. This time around...I've missed the great majority of the January rally and I keep thinking that as soon as I jump in it will be on a near-term peak, like I did at the end of May last year. The recent drift downward has made it even more tempting, but my feeling is that it's been too slight and gradual and a 3-7% correction is very possible into the 2nd week of Feb, so it's too early. I've been wrong all month, so I might be wrong about this as well. Maybe today would've been the ideal day. Good luck to all who did jump in.

We are close to seeing the entire tracker be even or positive for the year, which would be nice, but reality says that such a positive slant never lasts for too long so its another reason that I decided to wait. I hope that this time I can keep my head above the water line.
 
Agreed MrBowl. The next move for the market is down. The only question is, will it happen in a few days, weeks, or months? That's why I use technical indicators to help me in my decision making. I've had pretty good success so far.

I'm currently studying a new indicator of an indicator (that's not a typo), that has an 87% success rate, but have to continue to test it out to see if it's really going to pan out as planned. Stay tuned...

JR
 
MJR, I don't read most of the threads here, but I read yours because you make reasonable points and sound like you know what you're talking about. I'm sure there are several more that I haven't discovered yet. I will definitely stay tuned to see what you've found.

thanks
 
January 2012 is in the books. For the month, the S&P rose 4.4%, it's best January since 1997. ~ Wall Street Journal
 
MrJohnRoss said:
Agreed MrBowl. The next move for the market is down. The only question is, will it happen in a few days, weeks, or months? That's why I use technical indicators to help me in my decision making. I've had pretty good success so far.

I'm currently studying a new indicator of an indicator (that's not a typo), that has an 87% success rate, but have to continue to test it out to see if it's really going to pan out as planned. Stay tuned...
JR
Click to expand...

Oh yeah!?!!? Well I'm studying a new indicator of an indicator of an indicator...so there:laugh:! Oh, who am I kidding, with 2 little ones at home I am lucky to study the inside of my eyelids. However, I do agree with you on the down. I think we will have one more test of 20 and 50 day trend lines then a break down to 1265ish? Hopefully this will come quickly so we can get another leg up for some money making!
 
Here's a one year chart of the $SPX laid over the $VIX. Two things to note here:

1) The $SPX and the $VIX are a very close mirror image of each other
2) The $VIX got as low as 14.27 during the last market peak at the end of April 2011

Before the $VIX bottomed at the end of April 2011, it was at today's level (18.40ish) around the end of March. So it took around a month for the $VIX to go from 18.40 to the bottom at 14.27.
If this were to be repeated this year, we could see the $VIX continue to fall (and the $SPX rise) for another month.

Just some food for thought.

JR

vix.jpg
 
I thought I should disclose that I decided to jump into the I Fund today with the idea that we may see a news-driven boost into the latter part of this week, in addition to what we're seeing today. I wonder how much of today's gain is due to the golden cross occurring, triggering people who wanted to see it before they moved into stocks. Anyway, I still agree with you that a move down is coming soon and I hope to be back into the G or F fund prior to the weekend.
 
To stay or move

I am new to this tspers thing and I want to.learn how to maximize my returns. I am into S for 65% and I for 20% with some in F and C along with the other 15%.

WHY so much moving around in the month with the swings, doesn't the dollar cost average work out?

Ready to learn and capitalize by using my IFT's.
 
Re: To stay or move

Fran1775 said:
I am new to this tspers thing and I want to.learn how to maximize my returns. I am into S for 65% and I for 20% with some in F and C along with the other 15%.WHY so much moving around in the month with the swings, doesn't the dollar cost average work out?Ready to learn and capitalize by using my IFT's.
Click to expand...
Yes, dollar cost averaging into your TSP is always a good thing. But I believe it's a good idea to protect the bulk of your account from major market corrections that can wipe out 10-50% of your account value.There are many different systems here on this forum. Find one or two that you like, and see how they do. I think you'll see an improvement in your account balance as a result.Like Tom says... buy low, sell high!Good luck Fran,John
 
Copying a table from Excel with some help from RMI...

Here are the latest results of the S&P compared to my Timing System, results as of last Friday (updated weekly).

[TABLE="class: grid, width: 300"]
[TR]
[TD="width: 92, bgcolor: transparent"][/TD]
[TD="width: 84, bgcolor: transparent, align: right"]S&P
[/TD]
[TD="width: 84, bgcolor: transparent, align: right"]TIMING
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent"]2007
[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: right"]3.5%
[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: right"]11.7%
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent"]2008
[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: right"]-38.5%
[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: right"]-3.9%
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent"]2009
[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: right"]23.5%
[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: right"]32.5%
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent"]2010
[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: right"]12.8%
[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: right"]21.8%
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent"]2011
[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: right"]0.0%
[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: right"]3.8%
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent"]2012 YTD
[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: right"]4.7%
[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: right"]4.7%
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent"]Cumulative
[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: right"]-7.2%
[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: right"]88.1%
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent"]CAGR
[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: right"]-1.5%
[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent, align: right"]13.3%
[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]
 
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