MrJohnRoss' Account Talk

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Appatite said:
Is this some sort of new system.

How does this buy low sell high system work exactly? I seem to be using the inverse of this system.
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Not a new system, just one that I've used for a few years with good success (avg return = 13.3%). There are a lot of smart people here on this forum, and I encourage you to check them all out. Each one of us has a different method of determining our buy and sell signals.

JR
 
MrJohnRoss said:
NASA, you are absolutely correct. No one can time the market perfectly. My example was purely theoretical.

In real life, I'm just trying to use technical analysis to get a high percentage of my signals correct. I'm correct about 80% of the time, and usually my mistakes are small.

Tom, good catch spotting your business name! LOL!
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Congrats. 80% correct is impressive. My system is about 70% correct. How about we start comparing signals. If both are on a buy or sale at the same time, maybe we can get even better returns. Oh, I just realized that I can get your signal from RMI's OCD chart.
 
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jkenjohnson said:
RMI's OCD chart is showing you as still on a buy. Is this current?
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Yes, still on a buy signal, even after today's mini sell-off. But I am expecting a mild correction in the next week or two. Reason: not only does the market need a "breather", but the Fed needs to sell billions in 30-year long bonds on Feb 9. My guess is that the market will mysteriously tank in the days before the auction. This will make bonds appear attractive to investors who suddenly fear the market. After the auction, thing should return to normal.
 
MrJohnRoss said:
Yes, still on a buy signal, even after today's mini sell-off. But I am expecting a mild correction in the next week or two. Reason: not only does the market need a "breather", but the Fed needs to sell billions in 30-year long bonds on Feb 9. My guess is that the market will mysteriously tank in the days before the auction. This will make bonds appear attractive to investors who suddenly fear the market. After the auction, thing should return to normal.
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Wow, that is a great hypothesis. I am going to have to remember that... hmmm, hang on... going to go do some research.

Thanks!!
 
Ok, since no one else has posted it (yet), let me go ahead and say this: Be careful about jumping out of the market today (or tomorrow). Remember, if you move to the G or F Fund on the 30th of Jan, you only have 2 IFT's for Feb. That means you would only be able to go back in to the market one time in Feb.

Instead, you might want to consider waiting until at least Feb 1 to be sure you want to put yourself in that position. If you wait until Feb, you could possibly go to cash (1 IFT), then get back in later (2nd IFT), and if the market got bad again, you can always go to cash again (1 free IFT to cash). With the limits imposed on trading in our TSP accounts, you do need to think a few moves ahead.

By the way, that is not investment advice, just something to consider when making your IFT decisions. I realize most of you already know this, but for those of you who haven't, I hope this logic helps.

Best of luck to all of you,

John

P.S. My System is still 100% S.
 
MrJohnRoss said:
Ok, since no one else has posted it (yet), let me go ahead and say this: Be careful about jumping out of the market today (or tomorrow). Remember, if you move to the G or F Fund on the 30th of Jan, you only have 2 IFT's for Feb. That means you would only be able to go back in to the market one time in Feb.

Instead, you might want to consider waiting until at least Feb 1 to be sure you want to put yourself in that position. If you wait until Feb, you could possibly go to cash (1 IFT), then get back in later (2nd IFT), and if the market got bad again, you can always go to cash again (1 free IFT to cash). With the limits imposed on trading in our TSP accounts, you do need to think a few moves ahead.

By the way, that is not investment advice, just something to consider when making your IFT decisions. I realize most of you already know this, but for those of you who haven't, I hope this logic helps.

Best of luck to all of you,

John

P.S. My System is still 100% S.
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I'm with you John. This is the reason I didn't jump out before February. I want to go into February invested without having to burn an IFT to get in (stupid IFT limitations!!!).

Plus if we are already invested and this is a correction or whatever the technical term is hopefully we can ride the wave back up within the next few days. If we jumped out now we ride the wave down and miss the wave up...but hopefully the wave down doesn't continue for long.

This is my babble, from a person that does not know much about this stuff haha. :)
 
And remember this ..."Your IFT counts in the calendar month we process it, not in the month you submit it."

Don't get caught looking for a bounce up going into the next month unless you are certain of it. I did that 2 times last year and it hurt! Even with these limits it is better to use the transfers when you are sure of a profit or sure you are going to preserve capital.

Good luck with the S. I will be there soon, but not just yet.
 
MrJohnRoss said:
Instead, you might want to consider waiting until at least Feb 1 to be sure you want to put yourself in that position. If you wait until Feb, you could possibly go to cash (1 IFT), then get back in later (2nd IFT), and if the market got bad again, you can always go to cash again (1 free IFT to cash). With the limits imposed on trading in our TSP accounts, you do need to think a few moves ahead.
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Well said, that is how I've tried to play my IFT's it isn't always easy to do, but sometimes it's better to be in a position to get into position, than to be stuck in cash with no options.
 
Yes, but be careful... if you're back in cash at the end of Feb, you're in the wrong position for March. It's a little bit like a chess match... you need to be thinking a few moves ahead. ;)
 
MrJohnRoss said:
Yes, but be careful... if you're back in cash at the end of Feb, you're in the wrong position for March. It's a little bit like a chess match... you need to be thinking a few moves ahead. ;)
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Wrong position? Isn't this a perception issue? Maybe I just haven't been here long enough...............:laugh:
 
Intrepid_Timer said:
Wrong position? Isn't this a perception issue? Maybe I just haven't been here long enough...............:laugh:
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No, it's not a perception issue, it's reality. As an example, I was in cash at the end of Nov last year. Had a buy signal on Dec 5 (used 1 IFT). Then had a sell signal on Dec 14 (used 2nd IFT). Got another buy signal on Dec 22, but couldn't go back in because I was out of IFT's. It's rare that I have this many signals, but it (obviously) can happen. That's why you need to really think carefully, and plan ahead on how you're going to maximize your IFT strategy. This ties in to post #188.
 
MrJohnRoss said:
No, it's not a perception issue, it's reality. As an example, I was in cash at the end of Nov last year. Had a buy signal on Dec 5 (used 1 IFT). Then had a sell signal on Dec 14 (used 2nd IFT). Got another buy signal on Dec 22, but couldn't go back in because I was out of IFT's. It's rare that I have this many signals, but it (obviously) can happen. That's why you need to really think carefully, and plan ahead on how you're going to maximize your IFT strategy. This ties in to post #188.
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Oh boy......................okay, thanks for clarifying. I have so much to learn.......................:laugh:
 
Nice to see the market claw it's way back from being down over 100 points to closing down less than 7 points...

Hang in there at least one more day, will ya? :cheesy: Heh.
 
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