MrJohnRoss' Account Talk

[k0nkuzh0n]

I wouldn't say that, what happens when the fed stops propping this market up? The house of cards will fall, and hard. Markets always crash and recover, it's not an issue of if, but when.

You, along with others here have said it, the economy isn't much better than 4 years ago, if at all. What's holding up the market? Not a strong economy, not strong jobs reports, not strong fundamentals, just the federal reserve bank pumping billions into the market. They're creating a bubble and it's only a matter of time.

When the market was down, everyone was saying QE1 and QE2 didn't work and they were huge wastes of money. Now the FED gets all the credit for proping up the market? Was QE3 (or is it 4?) a huge success??

I think people are exaggerating the power of the FED because its an easy and simple answer... and, well, that's what the media is telling us.

 

[RealMoneyIssues]

When the market was down, everyone was saying QE1 and QE2 didn't work and they were huge wastes of money. Now the FED gets all the credit for proping up the market? Was QE3 (or is it 4?) a huge success??

I think people are exaggerating the power of the FED because its an easy and simple answer... and, well, that's what the media is telling us.

Um, when QE1 and QE2 ended then the markets corrected because of the end to cheap money... QE3 doesn't have the problem, it won't end (well, ok, maybe when the unemployment rate gets below 6.5%... lol) which is why everyone is giving the Fed all the credit.

BTW, when QE1 and QE2 were going on, the Fed got the credit.

As FWM mentioned, when Big Ben takes his foot off the pedal, the market will fall...

 

[Birchtree]

This market could easily be discounting out 18 months or longer - we won't know until after the fact. The economy is improving and money will flow into equities because the Fed is going to keep rates low well into 2016.

 

[JimmyJoe]

It took a while for me to feel I could stay with you guys. The terms used, the bravado, the character. I stuck with it and have the understanding of how this market communicates, and it does have a language. I had to understand it to feel comfortable in laying my money out there to commit to the gains I'm finally getting. I lost a lot of money 2 years ago in this very market but I vowed that I was going to get it back, the same way many of you got your big gains and here I am, on the road to success. I've got a long way to go but at least I know I'm on the right road. I had nothing to lose so all my chips are in. I am determined to make some real money this year and in the next 40. All the way till I become physically unable, which will be when I'm 99. I'm 60 now and feel like I'm 20, especially teeming up with all you scrappy semi pros in this forum. A lot of you on this forum are actually pros. The talking heads on "fast money" got nothing on you folks. Tomorrow is going to be another great day. All the way to 1700 for 2013. It may be 1800. Go TSP go!

 

[MrJohnRoss]

Perhaps Birch is right. Just keep your money fully invested in the market and ignore the short term downswings.

Nahhhh. Just kidding.

That being said, I did make a move back to equities (C Fund) this morning. "Don't fight the Fed" is very appropriate right now. Not sure how long this uptrend will last, but many indicators have now turned positive. More on that later....

Good luck!

 

[Talan150]

I'm with ya. I started this year much like I started 2012... Watching for a good entry point while watching the market explode. Mid Feb when I saw the pull back, the action started to look just like the pull back at the beginning of March 2012. So i jumped back in. Hope it ends like the rally did then. We'll see. Best of luck all

 

[sniper]

Perhaps Birch is right. Just keep your money fully invested in the market and ignore the short term downswings.

Nahhhh. Just kidding.

That being said, I did make a move back to equities (C Fund) this morning. "Don't fight the Fed" is very appropriate right now. Not sure how long this uptrend will last, but many indicators have now turned positive. More on that later....

Good luck!

With ya on the indicators, more so looking at an I fund play. But C is looking stronger than S

 

[MrJohnRoss]

I Fund? It's strong, but here's what I'm looking at: C Fund vs I Fund:





S&P underperformed last year (downtrending line) until late Dec. Then there was an inflectioin point (cirlces), followed by a period of consolidation (blue box area). During this time, several indicators began turning positive for C compared to I. The RSI, the PPO and the Stoch all turned higher, indicating strength was returning to the C Fund. By late January, C Fund began to take off, and has been moving higher against the I Fund ever since.

So far I don't see any indications of a trend change, although the RSI and PPO seem to be slowing down some. Something to keep your eye on.

If I'm not seeing something you're seeing, or you're looking at other indicators, I'd love to see them!

 

[k0nkuzh0n]

Um, when QE1 and QE2 ended then the markets corrected because of the end to cheap money... QE3 doesn't have the problem, it won't end (well, ok, maybe when the unemployment rate gets below 6.5%... lol) which is why everyone is giving the Fed all the credit.

BTW, when QE1 and QE2 were going on, the Fed got the credit.

As FWM mentioned, when Big Ben takes his foot off the pedal, the market will fall...

When did QE2 end? I don't remember there being an announced ending and then starting of QE3... which was operation twist... and was very insignificant when it started. So I'd actually say we are in QE4.

Even before QE2 was over, the majority thought it was a huge waste and didn't do anything... at least for significant periods of times. Point being, the market goes up, its all the FED. Market goes down, the FED is wasting money... The market... THE WORLD... is so much bigger than the FED.

 

[MrJohnRoss]

Another very nice day for the markets. Thought I'd take a look at a graph of my last few buy and sell decisions:





(RED down arrows = Sell, BLUE up arrows = Buy) From the looks of things, it appears I've caught most of the up-moves pretty well, and caught one good down-move back in Sept - Nov to avoid. That being said, the last couple of trades have been busts, as the down moves were quick little stabs down, and the market screamed back up within a few days, leaving me in the dust. The thing about using technical analysis to time trades, is that the market is hardly ever the same. Certain indicators work great... until they don't. It's always a learning process, and that's what I really like about it.

JTH posted a graph similar to this on his thread (thanks for the idea, JTH), so I thought I'd post mine just to compare notes. For those of you who may be looking for good guidance on the markets, be sure to check out his thread. Always interesting information and excellent analysis as well.

Good luck!

 

[craigerv]

Nice MrJ, it looks like you've avoided risk and caught some good up-slopes. I wouldn't worry much about missing those larger rocketships up after selling. You've recognized the major trends and played it intelligently. Keep it up!

 

[MrJohnRoss]

Nice MrJ, it looks like you've avoided risk and caught some good up-slopes. I wouldn't worry much about missing those larger rocketships up after selling. You've recognized the major trends and played it intelligently. Keep it up!

Thanks bro.

 

[MrJohnRoss]

I expect the markets to go down, and the VIX to go up tomorrow. Here's a graph of the S&P vs the VIX. Note that we are bumping up against the upper BB, and we've come a long way from that huge bottom spike on Feb 25. That would have been a good day to bet on a market upswing, and a drop in the VIX, right? Of course, the last time I predicted a drop of the S&P based on this graph, we continued upward, so we'll see if this has any relevance.





Good luck!

 

[MrJohnRoss]

Been watching the relative performance of C & S lately? Looks like the rotation has changed back to S. Take a look at the relative performance graph:




S Fund outperforms when the graph moves higher. As you can tell, from Feb 19 through early March, C Fund outperformed. However, as of the 5th of March, (coincidentally the same day I made a post below about how well the C Fund was doing), S Fund has been outperforming the C Fund. I don't really want to burn an IFT to switch at this point, but if you're looking to get into equities, the market strength is now clearly in favor of the S Fund.

Personally, I think we're due for another pullback soon, as many of the stocks I track look to be in a topping process. Tom makes an excellent argument for this as well, and I think he's spot on. I'm going to continue to be in equities until we see a change in some of the major technical indicators.

Good luck!

 

[crommie]

Good morning John,
I have noticed this too and am ready to move to S.
An IFT to S would be the second of the month for both of us so why not use it now?
We will still have the free move to G if needed.

 

[MrJohnRoss]

Good morning John,
I have noticed this too and am ready to move to S.
An IFT to S would be the second of the month for both of us so why not use it now?
We will still have the free move to G if needed.

Have you been reading my mind??? That is exactly what I was thinking this morning. I will likely make the IFT tomorrow morning before the deadline... unless we have some sort of black swan event.

Thanks,
JR

 

[MrJohnRoss]

Anyone else notice the dark cloud forming on the US Dollar fund, UUP?




This should be a good omen for the stock market, the metals market, as well as the I Fund, right? Although... the rising dollar seemed to have no affect on the stock market, so maybe it will have an insignificant impact.

Kinda surprised to see bonds rallying (yields falling) while the stock market is rising today. There are some very interesting dynamics going on right now, to say the least.

Good luck everyone!

 

[Cactus]

Kinda surprised to see bonds rallying (yields falling) while the stock market is rising today. There are some very interesting dynamics going on right now, to say the least.

It's as if the Smart Money is moving back into bonds by selling their equities to the left behind Panic Buyers. Just my paranoia talking.

 

[crommie]

Anyone else notice the dark cloud forming on the US Dollar fund, UUP?
This should be a good omen for the stock market, the metals market, as well as the I Fund, right?

Interesting...perhaps an IFT to a mix of S & I vice straight up S? Or will the dollar shake this off and continue it's climb? :suspicious: I guess I'll be watching the dollar closely before deciding what to do with this last IFT for March...might wait until Monday before pulling the trigger too.

 

[JTH]

Kinda surprised to see bonds rallying (yields falling) while the stock market is rising today. There are some very interesting dynamics going on right now, to say the least.

I agree, whatever rotation is going on right now hasn't been readily identified as to what the end result will be. In late March the dollar may get a 50/200 SMA Golden Cross.