MrJohnRoss' Account Talk

[MrJohnRoss]

Is the 10 year bull run in gold over? It appears that may be the case. Check out this chart:





A couple of things to note here.

1) The uptrend line that has been in place for 10 years was broken at the end of last year (blue line) That's a major violation, and does not bode well for precious metals (PM's).
2) Only twice in that 10 year run did gold take a pause, and when it did, the PPO went below zero (see red boxes). We're going back below zero again.
3) The RSI is collapsing and the weekly Stoch is going dead. Two more bad signs for any kind of strength.

Unless something changes soon, I'm not expecting gold or silver to shine too much in the near term.

The other item to consider is the strength in the dollar. A strong dollar does not bode well for PM's, and the dollar has had a LOT of strength this year. Although we had a big down day in the dollar today, one day does not change much in the big picture.

One final thought... money tends to flow where it finds the best return. Money leaves bonds and PM's when it can get stellar returns in the stock market. Yet another reason to expect continued weakness.

I continue to hold my 2X leveraged silver ETF, AGQ, but I now have to consider it a "longer term" investment than I was expecting.

I know these conditions won't last forever, and the likelyhood of a stock sell off (sell in May and go away?) could come at any time.

Money printing may eventually put an end to this downtrend, but we've been saying those words for years, haven't we?

Good luck!

 

[Birchtree]

I'm going to continue dollar cost averaging my position in GDXJ until the cows come home.

 

[MrJohnRoss]

I'm going to continue dollar cost averaging my position in GDXJ until the cows come home.

Birch, just curious, what percentage of your money vault is in the metals market? Most people are advised to put no more than 10%, but you're not most people. :laugh:

 

[Birchtree]

I suspect my metal holdings are less than 2% of my totals. I'm drowning in coal though and will continue to inflict more pain on myself by averaging further down into the mines.

 

[MrJohnRoss]

I suspect my metal holdings are less than 2% of my totals. I'm drowning in coal though and will continue to inflict more pain on myself by averaging further down into the mines.

It's a dirty job, but someone has to do it.

 

[MrJohnRoss]

I think AAPL may have formed a bottom here, and is on the way back up... at least for a little while. Check out the rising 5 day EMA, Stoch, RSI and MACD/PPO. I'm expecting at least a test of the upper BB, which is currently near $461. That's about 5% above current prices.

 

[Birchtree]

A strong rebound in AAPL will definitely send the SPX way past 1576 - then many will scramble to catch the ride.

 

[MrJohnRoss]

I do like the new Samsung Galaxy S4, though. Apple will have some catching up to do.

 

[sniper]

I do like the new Samsung Galaxy S4, though. Apple will have some catching up to do.

The specs on it look totally badass. wish i waited to buy a new phone, just got my S3 a few months ago

 

[MrJohnRoss]

Which train do you want to be on, the fast train or the slow train? I'm jumping on board the fast train (S Fund).





Notice the trend line is now moving back up, and the RSI, PPO, and Stoch are all moving higher.

I used my 2nd monthly IFT to move to S today. Still have the option to move to cash (G Fund) if we get a market correction before the end of the month.

Good luck!

 

[MrJohnRoss]

Depending on the technicals, I may move out of equities in the next day or two. The risk of doing so, of course, is having another V shaped correction, and it's screaming back up in a couple of days. I'll have to play this move very carefully...

 

[MrJohnRoss]

Depending on the technicals, I may move out of equities in the next day or two. The risk of doing so, of course, is having another V shaped correction, and it's screaming back up in a couple of days. I'll have to play this move very carefully...

Well, it looks like I won't have to worry about getting out of the market. At least not right away, as this (so far) positive day is changing the technical picture for the better.

Don't know if there are any wave count pro's here, but it appears to me that we might have completed our 5 waves up, and we're getting set to start our three waves down. (See graph below) If so, today's rally may be short lived.

Good luck!

 

[MrJohnRoss]

Here's the kind of set-up I look for when buying a stock (see graph below). Purchased UNFI yesterday at $49.43 (blue arrow). This stock looks like it became oversold recently, as the Stochastic, PPO, and RSI all had very low readings. However, in the last week or so, the technical picture has improved. Notice the blue circles showing that the PPO is crossing over to the upside, and the Stoch has crossed over the 20 line, and is climbing higher. I like to buy when the PPO is well below the zero line, as it is likely to oscillate back over zero before topping out. The RSI appears to have bottomed, and is slowly inching higher as well.

I'm hoping to see the gap filled (blue box), which would put the stock at $53 or so. That's about a 7% gain from my purchase price. Let's see if I'm lucky enough to see it come to fruition.

Good luck!

 

[GUCHI]

mrJR
i really like how you broke that down. you explained it very well that even i can see what is happening. thanks for the ejumication

 

[MrJohnRoss]

mrJR
i really like how you broke that down. you explained it very well that even i can see what is happening. thanks for the ejumication

Thanks Guchi. Ejumication? Quit using them fancy words on me! Lol! :blink:

 

[MrJohnRoss]

Sell signals have occured for the I Fund and the Transports. The S&P is right on the precipice, but today's move higher has kept it from triggering. S Fund has not triggered a sell signal yet.

I'm still thinking we're building a top here, and we're getting set for a three-wave down pattern, but there is always the off chance that the Fed's liquidity pump will push the market higher next week. On the other hand, we have that dang looming banking crisis in Cypress/EU to contend with next week.

These are not easy times to just say "we're in a bull market, son", unless you're a died in the wool BT perma bull. Sorry, but I can't drink the kool-aid. Most of us know we are in the final stages of an immense debt-fueled equity pump, and the music will stop one day soon. It may start in Japan or Europe, but the dominoes will begin to fall somewhere. When it does, the bond market will collapse, it will be a financial catastrophy, and there will be many, many people hurt badly. I hope BT and all the "buy-and-hold" mom and pop folks aren't ruined.

The mainstream media rarely mentions any of this, perhaps because they don't want people panicking, or perhaps they are being controlled by the puppet masters. Either way, it's a good idea to do your own independent research. There are plenty of thought provoking articles out there with proven facts about our current state of affairs. Just think it's a good idea to keep an open mind to some of the possibilities, and be prepared for whatever the future might throw at us.

Good luck!

*stepping off of my soap box...*

 

[MrJohnRoss]

Looks like my position in UNFI is not going to come easily. It's hard to be long on a stock when the market wants to turn down. I put a mental stop at the recent low near 48.31. Let's hope we don't test that "line in the sand" next week.

 

[MrJohnRoss]

Stock futures are up tonight. Tomorrow may be a good opportunity to sell. C and S Funds produced sell signals today. Unless we blast 200 points higher on the Dow tomorrow, I will likely head to the G Fund.

Good luck!

 

[MrJohnRoss]

Stock futures are up tonight. Tomorrow may be a good opportunity to sell. C and S Funds produced sell signals today. Unless we blast 200 points higher on the Dow tomorrow, I will likely head to the G Fund.

Good luck!

Going against my signal and going to hold my S Fund position at this time. Buy and hold has been hard to beat this year. (Yeah Birch, I actually typed those words). :blink:

As I've said before, not all signals behave in the same manner with different markets. This may be one of those times where you have to adapt and use different indicators to time your moves. In reality, my simple system will keep you out of severe market drops, but I'm not so sure we're facing a catastrophy at this particular moment in time. The two times I followed my signals this year, I ended up buying back in at higher prices. So I will hold for now, and will keep my eyes on the indicators for more ominous signs.

Good luck!

 

[MrJohnRoss]

One of the things I'm finding interesting right now, is the relative strength of the large caps vs small caps (C vs S). Looks like we are rotating back in favor of large caps (C Fund). See chart below:




This chart shows the relative performance of S vs C (or a close proximity of these funds). When S is outperforming, the line slopes higher. When S underperforms, the line slopes lower. Looks like the rising trendline has been broken, and the technical indicators are turning lower as well (blue circles). However, keep in mind that the last rotation only lasted a few weeks. Will this time be different? Your guess is as good as mine. For right now, at least, the C Fund is the place to be.

Good luck!