MrJohnRoss
Well-known member
Jared, you HAVE TO BE in charge of your own TSP! Make a mental commitment todaythat you'll treasure every dollar in your account. You've worked hard for that money, and you don't want to see it go up in smoke! Agreed?
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MrJohnRoss' Account Talk
- Thread starter MrJohnRoss
- Start date
Jared, you HAVE TO BE in charge of your own TSP! Make a mental commitment todaythat you'll treasure every dollar in your account. You've worked hard for that money, and you don't want to see it go up in smoke! Agreed?
MaStA
Member
Jared, you HAVE TO BE in charge of your own TSP! Make a mental commitment todaythat you'll treasure every dollar in your account. You've worked hard for that money, and you don't want to see it go up in smoke! Agreed?
I'm in charge of it, but I suck at making the right moves. A lot of people I talk to in the military just say to leave it alone and not mess with it. Can you make more money when not doing buy and hold? Of course, but only if you make the correct moves. I suck at this stuff lol...
and I don't believe any system/technical analysis can predict job numbers, etc. so stuff like that you have to just go with what you think will happen and either get out or stay in I guess. There is too much that affects the market to keep an eye on...
WhoDey
Member
I've had a TSP account for 25 years. Until very recently, I had everything in the C fund and never checked my balance. I figured I had a long wait for retirement, so I was comfortable with the risk and the associated ups and downs. I think that served me well for a long time.
Beginning this year, however, I've been actively managing my account. One reason is while retirement is a ways off (I'm 52), it is growing larger on the horizon. Another reason I began to manage my account it that it seems like the markets are different than they were in years past. Buy-and-hold was a reasonable strategy, but I'm not sure that's the case today.
Since studying here since January, I've learned that, for me, there is a comfortable middle ground between buy-and hold and playing short-term market movements. With the limitations with our IFTs and what I'm personally comfortable with (personality-wise and knowledge-wise), I've learned that I'm better off playing mid to long-term trends and not try to time short-term bounces. I tried to make a quick play a couple of times, but always felt like I was flipping a coin. That's not something I'm comfortable with unless I have reason to believe that the odds are in my favor. For me it always felt like a 50:50 proposition. I've done best when I've positioned myself in terms of the current trend. I won't make the highest gains ... but I will avoid the large losses.
I've been playing a game of sorts ... pitting my managed account against my wife's which is in a bank managed account. YTD, I'm a runaway winner. I'm no expert, but I've learned enough to stand out of the way when the train is running downhill. Her bank-employed investment manager tells her to stay the course otherwise she'll miss the big positive jumps. My January gains are not reflected in the Tracker, but I'm up over 8% for the year. I can live with that.
I can sympathize with your feelings of frustration. I felt that way initially. My newbie advice is to not try to do too much and to stay with what you're comfortable with. Keep it simple and, as you learn more, venture out if you so desire.
My, admittedly, non-expert advice.
Hang in there!
Beginning this year, however, I've been actively managing my account. One reason is while retirement is a ways off (I'm 52), it is growing larger on the horizon. Another reason I began to manage my account it that it seems like the markets are different than they were in years past. Buy-and-hold was a reasonable strategy, but I'm not sure that's the case today.
Since studying here since January, I've learned that, for me, there is a comfortable middle ground between buy-and hold and playing short-term market movements. With the limitations with our IFTs and what I'm personally comfortable with (personality-wise and knowledge-wise), I've learned that I'm better off playing mid to long-term trends and not try to time short-term bounces. I tried to make a quick play a couple of times, but always felt like I was flipping a coin. That's not something I'm comfortable with unless I have reason to believe that the odds are in my favor. For me it always felt like a 50:50 proposition. I've done best when I've positioned myself in terms of the current trend. I won't make the highest gains ... but I will avoid the large losses.
I've been playing a game of sorts ... pitting my managed account against my wife's which is in a bank managed account. YTD, I'm a runaway winner. I'm no expert, but I've learned enough to stand out of the way when the train is running downhill. Her bank-employed investment manager tells her to stay the course otherwise she'll miss the big positive jumps. My January gains are not reflected in the Tracker, but I'm up over 8% for the year. I can live with that.
I can sympathize with your feelings of frustration. I felt that way initially. My newbie advice is to not try to do too much and to stay with what you're comfortable with. Keep it simple and, as you learn more, venture out if you so desire.
My, admittedly, non-expert advice.
Hang in there!
Boghie
Well-known member
MaStA,
We have to keep everything in perspective. We are over 80% corrected from the absolute bottom of the S&P500 (March 9, 2009). Watching your holdings dump 2% in a day is difficult, but we watched the same show last year. And, in fact summers often are periods of instability and loss.
A few things.
- We've only lost 3% this week if fully invested in the 'C Fund'
- One or two days of a rebounding market will zero out those losses.
- Year to date, the S&P500 is still up nicely for this time of year - about 3.5%
- Short summer slumbers are great for dollar cost averaging - contribution bump?
- And finally, you are in the most risky (greatest variance up and down) of our funds **
I bring this up because you are trying to market time. Many thing that market timing is impossible - but, you can see that some succeed. However, most do not. And, those that do seem to have a very strong grasp of technical trading. Maybe you could join me in having an acceptable allocation with a few jigger points. Never all in, never all out. I use three Edelman asset allocations and jigger with about 20% of it on the edges.
** Note: In any year one should expect the 'S Fund' to return anything from -12% through +28%. The 'C Fund' between -9% through +23%.
Boghie
Well-known member
Not a problem...
Also, just to scare the hell out of you...
The S&P500 dumped by over 9% on October 14, 2008. Yowser... BT rode it down, but has been made much more than whole. Especially considering his DCA activity. The close on 2008/10/14 was just 908. Yowser. But, we are up 41% since then.
Conversely, the market grew by 23% in the three weeks after March 9, 2008. Miss all of that and you are back to grinding on Alpo in your Golden Retriever Days.
Since I have proven myself to be a crappy market timer I always have something in the market. Right now, if we rebound I'll chomp on 40% of that boom - and maybe have enough time to get back in to a greater extent.
Happy hunting. These are the times where money is made...
MrJohnRoss
Well-known member
You're right, there is no system that can predict job numbers, etc. But there are trend following systems that do very well when there are strong uptrends (to keep you in the market), and strong downtrends (to get you out of the market). Find one you like and trust, and paper trade it for a while. If it does well, then allocate a portion of your money to it. You don't have to go all or none.
Good luck!
MrJohnRoss
Well-known member
New Activity Stream
Opinion:
I miss being able to see the first sentence or two of what people are writing on each other's posts in the "Activity Stream" in the main Forum section. Now it only states that someone replied to a thread on someone's Account Talk.
Boo.
I like the old way better. If the conversation looked interesting, you could click on the link if you wanted to read more. Now, you don't have any idea what's being said until you click on every link.
I don't have time for that.
My vote is to bring the old way back.
Opinion:
I miss being able to see the first sentence or two of what people are writing on each other's posts in the "Activity Stream" in the main Forum section. Now it only states that someone replied to a thread on someone's Account Talk.
Boo.
I like the old way better. If the conversation looked interesting, you could click on the link if you wanted to read more. Now, you don't have any idea what's being said until you click on every link.
I don't have time for that.
My vote is to bring the old way back.
crommie
Member
MrJohnRoss
Well-known member
Re: New Activity Stream
The ayes have it. Unless there are any nayes, the motion is carried. (Hahaha!)
Now we just gotta get the boss to agree. :toung:
The ayes have it. Unless there are any nayes, the motion is carried. (Hahaha!)
Now we just gotta get the boss to agree. :toung:
MrJohnRoss
Well-known member
Re: New Activity Stream
Gary Shilling Explains Why the S&P 500 Will Fall to 800 This Year / Business Insider
... and his outlook for housing is just as dismal.
Fasten your seatbelts.
Gary Shilling Explains Why the S&P 500 Will Fall to 800 This Year / Business Insider
... and his outlook for housing is just as dismal.
Fasten your seatbelts.
MaStA
Member
Re: New Activity Stream
John,
Altria Group (MO) seems to be a good buy, but I'm struggling with my inner being to purchase shares of a company that produces something that I HATE. My uncle passed away recently from lung cancer and my mom still smokes. I just find it hard to invest in something like that...but I think I've heard people say don't let your emotions mix with your trading decisions so maybe I need to think of it as a business move. What do you think...?
BTW, my $5,000 is finally in my Roth IRA for this year so I'm itching to invest more lol. Some recommendations I read about on CNBC were MO, VOLC, T, and MCD. I already have some MCD, but I may get more one of these days.
John,
Altria Group (MO) seems to be a good buy, but I'm struggling with my inner being to purchase shares of a company that produces something that I HATE. My uncle passed away recently from lung cancer and my mom still smokes. I just find it hard to invest in something like that...but I think I've heard people say don't let your emotions mix with your trading decisions so maybe I need to think of it as a business move. What do you think...?
BTW, my $5,000 is finally in my Roth IRA for this year so I'm itching to invest more lol. Some recommendations I read about on CNBC were MO, VOLC, T, and MCD. I already have some MCD, but I may get more one of these days.
MrJohnRoss
Well-known member
Re: New Activity Stream
Since you asked for my opinion...
Your objective with your investments should be to make you lots of money. Period. I hate smoking too, but that's not the point. You're not buying the cigarettes, you're just a smart investor who realizes that MO is making money hand over fist selling their widgets, which just happen to be cancer sticks. It's a business that will thrive in any economic environment, even if the world goes to hell in a hand basket. Pretty much recession proof, in my opinion.
It's a great business, and one that you'd be wise to put into your portfolio. Mighty MO has just been on too much of a tear lately. Waiting to see some price weakness before you snap up some shares might be a good idea.
Good luck!
Since you asked for my opinion...
Your objective with your investments should be to make you lots of money. Period. I hate smoking too, but that's not the point. You're not buying the cigarettes, you're just a smart investor who realizes that MO is making money hand over fist selling their widgets, which just happen to be cancer sticks. It's a business that will thrive in any economic environment, even if the world goes to hell in a hand basket. Pretty much recession proof, in my opinion.
It's a great business, and one that you'd be wise to put into your portfolio. Mighty MO has just been on too much of a tear lately. Waiting to see some price weakness before you snap up some shares might be a good idea.
Good luck!
Sensei
Well-known member
MaStA & MrJohnRoss,
I don't smoke, and don't condone smoking, but I'm not one to outright condemn it either. I'm sure it's not healthful, and can be annoying to some, but I think it gets a little over-demonized. People smoke like crazy in Japan and S. Korea, yet those are places where people tend to have the longest lifespans. The combination of overconsumption of fast food and potato chips, with sitting around on your azz and smoking cigarettes for 20-30 years is what does you in. In that respect, owning stock in Altria is no worse in my opinion than owning McDonald's or Frito-Lay (do they have stock?). I do DCA steadily into MO as one of my best performing dividend stocks. Just one man's perspective.
I don't smoke, and don't condone smoking, but I'm not one to outright condemn it either. I'm sure it's not healthful, and can be annoying to some, but I think it gets a little over-demonized. People smoke like crazy in Japan and S. Korea, yet those are places where people tend to have the longest lifespans. The combination of overconsumption of fast food and potato chips, with sitting around on your azz and smoking cigarettes for 20-30 years is what does you in. In that respect, owning stock in Altria is no worse in my opinion than owning McDonald's or Frito-Lay (do they have stock?). I do DCA steadily into MO as one of my best performing dividend stocks. Just one man's perspective.
MaStA
Member
MaStA
Member
MaStA & MrJohnRoss,
I don't smoke, and don't condone smoking, but I'm not one to outright condemn it either. I'm sure it's not healthful, and can be annoying to some, but I think it gets a little over-demonized. People smoke like crazy in Japan and S. Korea, yet those are places where people tend to have the longest lifespans. The combination of overconsumption of fast food and potato chips, with sitting around on your azz and smoking cigarettes for 20-30 years is what does you in. In that respect, owning stock in Altria is no worse in my opinion than owning McDonald's or Frito-Lay (do they have stock?). I do DCA steadily into MO as one of my best performing dividend stocks. Just one man's perspective.
Understandable. Thank you for your input as well! I need to go read up about this dollar cost averaging people keep talking about...
Sensei
Well-known member
I want you to know I didn't mean any disrespect to your uncle - re-reading my post, I may have sounded a little harsh.
Anyway, DCAing, as I understand and practice it, is simply setting a schedule of consistent investment into one or more stocks/ETFs/whatever. You accumulate shares whether the prices goes up or down. Like I have transfers set from my checking account to my Sharebuilder account every other Friday. Then every other Tuesday I participate in their "Automatic Investements", where I spread the money over 4-5 companies. Make sense? Maybe someone else can explain it better.
MaStA
Member
I want you to know I didn't mean any disrespect to your uncle - re-reading my post, I may have sounded a little harsh.
Anyway, DCAing, as I understand and practice it, is simply setting a schedule of consistent investment into one or more stocks/ETFs/whatever. You accumulate shares whether the prices goes up or down. Like I have transfers set from my checking account to my Sharebuilder account every other Friday. Then every other Tuesday I participate in their "Automatic Investements", where I spread the money over 4-5 companies. Make sense? Maybe someone else can explain it better.
No harm done. I know what cigarettes do and what they can cause. I just wish my mom would stop smoking, but if seeing her brother die from lung cancer due to smoking doesn't stop her I don't know what will. Like you said even in a bad economy poor people still find ways to buy cigarettes and nothing is going to stop them.
Thank you for the explanation on DCA. Makes complete sense.
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