MrJohnRoss' Account Talk

[Bquat]

I need 12 posts to break 1,000, so I'm pulling an RMI move.​

When you get to 1900, do the Fab1 RMI shuffle. I think several have used this.

 

[MrJohnRoss]

Once you get past 20,000 you are relagated to Relic - I think.

Bwahahaha! Very funny Birch! :laugh:

 

[MrJohnRoss]

The danger with using leveraged ETF's: TVIX lost 40% of it's value in two days! :blink:

Link to story HERE.

Be careful out there!

 

[tsptalk]

The danger with using leveraged ETF's: TVIX lost 40% of it's value in two days! :blink:

Link to story HERE.

Be careful out there!

Holy cow! Jeff Macke resurfaces. This guy had a major mental breakdown a few years ago. He looks / sounds much better. Glad to see that.

 

[jkenjohnson]

The danger with using leveraged ETF's: TVIX lost 40% of it's value in two days! :blink:

Link to story HERE.

Be careful out there!

It can really be bad in an IRA, as you may not be able to sell and cut losses because of that d..n 3 day rule!

 

[JTH]

The danger with using leveraged ETF's: TVIX lost 40% of it's value in two days! :blink:

Link to story HERE.

Be careful out there!

Holy cow! Jeff Macke resurfaces. This guy had a major mental breakdown a few years ago. He looks / sounds much better. Glad to see that.

Great find, how fitting he's discussing something we talked about over at ETFTalk a long time ago. Leveraged ETFs are dangerous!

 

[tsptalk]

Great find, how fitting he's discussing something we talked about over at ETFTalk a long time ago. Leveraged ETFs are dangerous!

Agree. 3X ETF's need to be hit and runs (not buy and hold) and we have mentioned several times that those VIX ETF's (ETN) as being big terrible. Buyer beware.

 

[Taller]

Should we go into the G fund on Monday?

 

[MrJohnRoss]

Ok, I confess. I'm currently using a 3X ETF in my other retirement accounts (TQQQ). Everything appears normal. Is there anything special I should be on the lookout for to alert me to danger? :worried:

Thanks in advance...

 

[MrJohnRoss]

Bad Day for BATS: IPO Cancelled, SNAFU Causes Apple Halt

Talk about egg on your face!

 

[tsptalk]

Ok, I confess. I'm currently using a 3X ETF in my other retirement accounts (TQQQ). Everything appears normal. Is there anything special I should be on the lookout for to alert me to danger? :worried:

Thanks in advance...

I use them too (ex: TNA/TNZ) But you will want to look at the performance comparison of the 2. If one is down 50%, you'd hope that the other is up about 50%, but often they are not. Take a look at the 1 year comparison between FAS and FAZ (3 X long / short the XLF).

If you bought and held both you'd think your return would be 0%, but one is down about 25% in the last year, whilethe other is down 50%. What a joke.

 

[MrJohnRoss]

Ok, I took a look at TQQQ and it's opposite, SQQQ...

TQQQ = +52.40% YTD

SQQQ = -35.80% YTD

So if you held equal $ amounts in each, your return would not be zero. It would be +16.6%.

I'm thinking that's not a big problem. If one was up 20%, and the other down 50%, then I would be concerned that there is bleed down in both accounts. This doesn't appear to be the case with these two.

Correct me if I'm wrong.

Ive heard of other ETF's that perform poorly compared to their underlying security as well.

 

[MrJohnRoss]

Should we go into the G fund on Monday?

Hey Taller,

I'm gonna stay in the C Fund for now. No significant hits to the market. Yet.

JR

 

[MrJohnRoss]

Here's another reason why you should move your $ out of the TSP and into a self directed IRA when you retire....

Don't you wish you could have invested in the NASDAQ instead of the S&P 500 this year?

Here's a ratio analysis of $COMPQ vs $SPX:

Notice that since the first of the year the NASDAQ has CLEARLY outperformed the S&P 500.

 

[Mapper]

regarding long-term holding of ETFs
Look around at what they term "leakage". The value of the funds degrades over time. Hit & run works but if you want to hold, these aren't the place to be. I get bothered if I stay in even as long as a few weeks because you can start to see the "leakage", the indexes may be at previous levels but the ETF starts lagging. In a consistent market like we've been having, it's negligible but still noticeable.

 

[tsptalk]

Ok, I took a look at TQQQ and it's opposite, SQQQ...

TQQQ = +52.40% YTD

SQQQ = -35.80% YTD

So if you held equal $ amounts in each, your return would not be zero. It would be +16.6%.

I'm thinking that's not a big problem. If one was up 20%, and the other down 50%, then I would be concerned that there is bleed down in both accounts. This doesn't appear to be the case with these two.

Correct me if I'm wrong.

It actually depend on the type of market we're in. In a strong trending market, you would see stats like you are getting, so I'd agree, 3X ETF's great for strong trends. But in a choppy market they get banged on both sides. It's because of the way the returns are calculated.

The 1st 2 columns are two ETFs in a choppy market. Col 1 is long while col 2 is short.

The 2nd 2 columns are two ETFs in a trending market. Col 1 is the long ETF. Col 2 id the short.

You can see in the choppy market both end in negative territory, while in the trending market the gains compound more. The latter seems to be what happened to your ETFs in this strong trending market.

 

[MrJohnRoss]

Thanks Tom & Mapper. Good food for thought.

 

[MrJohnRoss]

This is some sort of camera trick right? If not, this guy is incredible...

Link HERE.

 

[Taller]

Hey Taller,

I'm gonna stay in the C Fund for now. No significant hits to the market. Yet.

JR

MrJohnRoss

Thanks, I'll stay also, keep your fingers crossed.

Taller

 

[MrJohnRoss]

Headline: Trayvon's Mother Seeks to "Trademark" Son's Name...

Wow. Way to capitalize on the dead, Mom.

Your actions speak volumes.