MrJohnRoss' Account Talk

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JamesE said:
There are 15 members on the tracker who made 20% or greater last year. Of that 15, 13 are parked in G or F right now. Probably not a good sign, but there doesn't seem to be anything slowing this train right now. I'm waiting for April because I'm out of IFT's.
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JE: FYI -- I'm outta IFTs too; shifted 30% more from G to C,S,I at beginning of month, then pulled it back a few days later on a market drop. However, using the "<1% balancing" I've moved 8-10% to equities again in just 3 of those IFT's. I haven't gotten what I would have if I'd not pulled those funds back to G, but I'm getting something more, assuming no major correction at this moment.
 
Someone asked a while back why you wouldn't go to F instead of G on a sell signal. For the answer, here's a view of AGG, which is similar to the F Fund. From the top at 110.75 to it's current level of 108.96, that's a 1.6 percent drop in 15 trading days. Ouch. Unless you're sure that interest rates aren't heading higher, the G Fund is your safer bet.

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MrJohnRoss said:
Someone asked a while back why you wouldn't go to F instead of G on a sell signal. For the answer, here's a view of AGG, which is similar to the F Fund. From the top at 110.75 to it's current level of 108.96, that's a 1.6 percent drop in 15 trading days. Ouch. Unless you're sure that interest rates aren't heading higher, the G Fund is your safer bet.

View attachment 18211
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I did a rough study once, estimating the F & C Funds trade inverse to each other about 2/3rds of the time. That means they can trade in the same direction 1/3rd of the time. Some of the systems I track work well for stocks but not for bonds, indeed the F-Fund is its own animale.
 
MrJohnRoss said:
That might be a good one too. TQQQ is 3X the NASDAQ 100, so it's based on large caps vs TNA which is 3X small caps. Large caps seem to be outperforming small at the moment, but things could change in a hurry.
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TNA has been a bit of a turd lately. Certainly wish my current position was TQQQ, maybe I have to do quick swap.
 
Yeah, the three with the highest current relative strength appear to be TQQQ (3X NASDAQ 100 BULL), TYH (3X TECHNOLOGY BULL), & FAS (3X FINANCIAL BULL).

Perhaps you may want to "diversify". I would imagine there is a lot of overlap between TQQQ and TYH.

Good luck!
 
MrJohnRoss said:
Someone asked a while back why you wouldn't go to F instead of G on a sell signal. For the answer, here's a view of AGG, which is similar to the F Fund. From the top at 110.75 to it's current level of 108.96, that's a 1.6 percent drop in 15 trading days. Ouch. Unless you're sure that interest rates aren't heading higher, the G Fund is your safer bet.
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MJR, seeing what has happened with the AGG lately has been alarming. One thought is that people who have sought the safety of bonds are starting to move out, in big numbers, but since the equity volume hasn't risen much perhaps they are waiting in cash for a slight pullback. If that's the case then stocks will surge higher quickly, and Birchtree's shouts from the mountain top will be verified. What do you think?
 
MrBowl said:
MJR, seeing what has happened with the AGG lately has been alarming. One thought is that people who have sought the safety of bonds are starting to move out, in big numbers, but since the equity volume hasn't risen much perhaps they are waiting in cash for a slight pullback. If that's the case then stocks will surge higher quickly, and Birchtree's shouts from the mountain top will be verified. What do you think?
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I think that's a very likely scenario. I know that if I were in bonds, I would not be a happy camper.

Even the "Bond King" Bill Gross is saying that the 30-year bull market in bonds may be over. Link to article HERE.
 
My 500th post. Was hoping I could think of something really worthwhile to post, but instead I'll just say that for the 5 months I've been here, I've really enjoyed the great conversations here, and learning from all of you. Looking forward to our continued discussions, and helping each other make the best decisions possible regarding our TSP accounts.

Good luck everyone!

John
 
MrJohnRoss said:
My 500th post. Was hoping I could think of something really worthwhile to post, but instead I'll just say that for the 5 months I've been here, I've really enjoyed the great conversations here, and learning from all of you. Looking forward to our continued discussions, and helping each other make the best decisions possible regarding our TSP accounts.

Good luck everyone!

John
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Congrats on getting to 500!!!
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Thanks for all your positive inputs and discussion.

To your next 500 !!
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Looks like even AAPL may not be able to keep the market going up today. S&P may end up lower for the week. Not a big drop, so no worries on my end.
 
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