That's correct. The penalties (and tax) would only apply to the earnings, not contributions.
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MrJohnRoss' Account Talk
- Thread starter MrJohnRoss
- Start date
MrJohnRoss
Well-known member
No one saw the major math blunder???
MrJohnRoss
Well-known member
The S&P has gone from roughly 1358 to 1371 since my sell signal. That's a gain of about 0.9%, after a quick couple of days of some scary market action. It'll sure be interesting to see what happens this week. Will it get me back in? Or will the market make another swoon? Can't wait to find out! Futures pointing down ahead of Monday morning's open.
MrJohnRoss
Well-known member
Unbelievable. The VIX getting this low is a rarity, and usually signals a market top/reversal. This could be a great shorting opportunity.
jkenjohnson
Active member
One long, one short. Thoughts - what is there to drive the market up higher? I don't know of anything obvious. How about lower? I don't know of anyhting obvious, but I do know that any negative news will sending it tumbling. So maybe we are at a top. Thoughts please?????
MrJohnRoss
Well-known member
To look at what might drive the market higher, you can find plenty of links and articles that BT posts. There seems to be plenty of reasons.
Lower? EU, war with Iran, gasolilne costs, more and more boomers heading into retirement and selling their stock holdings while moving to bonds, annuities, cash, etc.
Of course, these are all just thought processes. What really matters is what is technically happening with the markets. "The tape" never lies, and doesn't care what makes it go up or down.
jkenjohnson
Active member
I'll stick with my system for now and hope it doesn't blow up on me.
It's nearing a multi-year low, but still well above the pre-financial crisis levels.
The big money needs to suck in more unsuspecting victims who are still on the sidelines before they drop it again.
MrJohnRoss
Well-known member
Yeah, here's another look at the VIX (3 year view). The S&P 500 (in blue) is behind the VIX. You can clearly see that when VIX got below ~16, it usually signaled a market top.
Just like waves at the ocean, VIX rolls in, and it rolls out. Don't think it's going to go much lower. If it does, I would use extreme caution.
Also note that the MACD is making a pretty strong climb higher, suggesting that VIX will follow suit.
Just like waves at the ocean, VIX rolls in, and it rolls out. Don't think it's going to go much lower. If it does, I would use extreme caution.
Also note that the MACD is making a pretty strong climb higher, suggesting that VIX will follow suit.
Birchtree
Well-known member
The only thing we have to fear is no fear. Let the VIX come down with that comfort level. Remember, negative headlines tend to produce the strongest advances in a bull market, and of course you knew that. Mom and Pop are still on the run into the closed canyon - that's just the way it should happen. The big picture is that of the stock market targeting a trend towards a new all time high - sooner than later. I want my QE3.
Mcqlives
Active member
We are back in that same 1352 to 1378 channel. My view is that unless 1378 is broken we are doing a double top and there will be a better buy in point in the near future. However, if 1378 does break my target is around 1407. Only my opinions of course but your VIX analysis is very pertinent to the trend lines. Thanks for posting it!
MrJohnRoss
Well-known member
A picture is worth a thousand words.
RealMoneyIssues
Well-known member
John, you're such a downer...
MrJohnRoss
Well-known member
Wah. The truth hurts, huh? :toung:
RealMoneyIssues
Well-known member
MrJohnRoss
Well-known member
Are you kidding me??? The VIX dropped as low as 13.99 this morning! Let's see, at this rate, the VIX will go below zero in ~3 weeks.
Bring on the party hats, people! Nothing to worry about here! LoL!
Stock market's obviously going to 1,000,000 and beyond!
Bring on the party hats, people! Nothing to worry about here! LoL!
Stock market's obviously going to 1,000,000 and beyond!
jkenjohnson
Active member
Are you kidding me??? The VIX dropped as low as 13.99 this morning! Let's see, at this rate, the VIX will go below zero in ~3 weeks.
Bring on the party hats, people! Nothing to worry about here! LoL!
Stock market's obviously going to 1,000,000 and beyond!
To me all that means is that daily fluctuations should not be extreme right now. It may be the prelude to a major change, but it is really a measure of complacency, which may or may not cause a major market move. I saw your charts the other day on the VIX though and am keeping them in the back of my mind. Am I missing something?
RealMoneyIssues
Well-known member
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