MrJohnRoss' Account Talk

[Khotso]

This look at the bottom of the tracker says it all.

We often talk about where the "Smart Money" is alocatted.
It is important to also know where the uhmm..."not so smart money" is, when looking to avoid a pitfall, or figuring out how you should NOT be allocated.
I shoud know, I've spent time in the dumb money pool in the past.

Anyone see any common allocation themes here?

Names covered to protect the innocent (maybe myself) :worried:
Still early folks...plenty of time to ride on up.

View attachment 18022

So FWM,how did you do that, cut ... paste and block out names? I'm befuddled. I've tried to cut and paste a portion of tracker with no success in the past. I'm definitely way impressed!

 

[WhoDey]

This look at the bottom of the tracker says it all.

We often talk about where the "Smart Money" is alocatted.
It is important to also know where the uhmm..."not so smart money" is, when looking to avoid a pitfall, or figuring out how you should NOT be allocated.
I shoud know, I've spent time in the dumb money pool in the past.

Anyone see any common allocation themes here?

Interesting way of looking at it, but keep in mind that a good percentage of those on the bottom of the AutoTracker joined after January 1.

 

[Birchtree]

Simply speaking being out of the market has more risk than being invested - we are in a strong bull market.

 

[MrJohnRoss]

Simply speaking being out of the market has more risk than being invested - we are in a strong bull market.

Birch, I hate to disagree with you, but buy & hold is much riskier, in my opinion, than a well designed timing system.

Since 2007, buy & hold has returned -3.4% Timing system has returned 92.0%.

 

[Birchtree]

Have it your way when you use your money - that keeps it interesting.

 

[Mapper]

Everyone has differing objectives. No one approach is appropriate across the board.

I've heard enough about Birch's finances to know that buy and hold is an appropriate approach for him. He has the financial and instrumental breadth to absorb losses in order to be onboard for the gains. He plays the "wallflower" game, he buys on sale, it works for him. I appreciate that approach but my opinion is that I, personally, do not yet have the breadth to fully incorporate such an approach. I do partially use it though, and I know some of the wall flowers I pick out over the years will be real winners...some will be losers too, it's inherent to that approach.

The autotracker is another story entirely. It's nice, at the end of the year, to see how individuals fare compared to the market as a whole but you need to remember nearly everyone on there has an individual objective. Looking at how one person moves their money should not be indicative of how another should move theirs. If I was retired I'd be happy to make less than the market as a whole, provided my risk exposure was much lower. I'm young now so I'm willing to take on a little risk to gamble on higher gains...that will change over time. I personally don't like the AT because competitiveness can let your year over yer position have undue influence on your financial moves...we should be thinking long-term, at least I should anyway.

No one should be making moves in order to outsmart someone else, make moves that work for you.

 

[nnuut]

Hey Tom, we have to get rid of the Auto Tracker because this guy doesn't like it!!! :blink:We need to take a POLL>

 

[Mapper]

Thanks for warping and destroying the context for me Nnuut. Glad you're keeping it classy

 

[tsptalk]

It's only as competitive as someone wants it to be. Some just want to know their return, some want to get the highest return possible, some just don't want to lose money, and others like the competition to help them keep on top of their account, and some just want to win one of those coveted travel mugs. There's no correct reason to be on the autotracker.

 

[Birchtree]

No reason to be so sully - nnuut was only being facetious.

 

[Mapper]

Edit:

This is JR's house. Nnuut, you're trying to bait me. What's your perspective on the market.

 

[MrBowl]

The Tracker has been very good for me. It sheds a light on what I'm doing - No more thinking I'm doing great when I'm really not. I've learned a ton from other peoples' strategies. I know I'm not going to win, but I do enjoy competing, and in my case it does cause better performance. My approach is..."here's how I'm doing, other people are doing better, I want to do better, let's figure out how to do better".

Back in 2008 I was 100% in stocks and groaned and moaned all the way down into the Oct lows. That's when I changed my philosophy - to start figuring out when to make moves and avoid the crashes and corrections. It took another 14 months to find this site. Watching this site and soaking up ideas here has been the best way to develop a set of trading signals and rules for myself.

 

[tsptalk]

I copied this Autotracker discussion over into a thread in the AutoTracker forum - just so we don't inundate MrJR's thread.

http://www.tsptalk.com/mb/tsp-talk-autotracker-returns-info/10816-autotracker.html

 

[MrJohnRoss]

Here's a good analysis on why the stock market is vulnerable to a big tumble. It's based on the price of silver, of all things.

This guy is good. Charts and analysis HERE.

 

[Talan150]

Are you Getting close to a buy signal yet John? i saw the Stochastics is making a break for higher ground for the C and S funds

 

[MrJohnRoss]

Are you Getting close to a buy signal yet John? i saw the Stochastics is making a break for higher ground for the C and S funds

I'll check after the market close. The system as of yesterday is still on a "Sell" signal, but we'll have to see how today shapes up. So far, the market is looking very resilient.

Yes, the stochastics indicator has turned up, but it's a very short term indicator, so I don't use it alone for buy and sell decisions. Glad to see you keeping an eye on the market, though. Your comments are much appreciated.

 

[MrJohnRoss]

FYI, my system remains on a "Sell" signal. I'm staying in cash (G Fund).

Good luck, and have a great weekend everyone!

 

[MrJohnRoss]

FedSmith had a Smartmoney article on how to save more for retirement.

I found two glaring errors in the article. Link HERE. Can you find them?

Looks like Smartmoney ain't so smart. :blink:

 

[ssdave]

The two glaring errors I saw were:

Roth IRA's have a penalty for early withdrawl, and they said they do not.

Net present value of social security payouts is about $500,000. This is false, average lifetime payout for someone 50 years old now is expected to be about $250,000, for a net present value of more like $100,000.

dave

 

[seven]

It says there is no penalty for early withdrawal of contributions which I thought was true. Is that wrong?