MrJohnRoss' Account Talk

Sort by newest Sort by date
S Fund vs C Fund

The S Fund is now clearly underperforming the C Fund. This is typically what happens when the market is encountering technical problems, and the previous leaders begin to sink.

Take a look at the graph of the S Fund ($EMW) vs the C Fund ($SPX). You'll notice that the S was outperforming C since the beginning of the year. Then it peaked in early February, and has since rolled over and sunk. (Remember, when the S is outperforming C, the line heads higher. When it underperforms, the line heads lower.)

If you insist on being in the market, the S Fund is not the place to be.

Good luck!

S vs C.png
 
We may have entered that moment that Birch has been waiting for! It stands to reason, to an extent, that long-term investors would prefer the C fund. The C fund "should" be less volatile. If you are swing trading you'll want volatility, within reason. Depending on when one last entered the market C may have been the place to be but it all depends on the price when you purchase and price when you sell...exchanging S for C that first week of Feb would have been a great move.

I'm hoping we make a move up from here, if we do, I would not be surprised if the line starts moving up again.
 
MJR ... Thank you for the charts and commentary.

I came here in January not knowing a thing. I copied the AutoTracker leaders and went all S. I did well, but grew nervous because I felt too vulnerable and didn't have any confidence regarding the reasoning for my allocation.

So, I became more conservative and tried a few timed moves. Not much luck.

Now I'm back to realizing that I don't know anything! My AutoTracker results don't reflect my January gains. I'm sitting pretty good relative to my goals, but March so far has been pfffft.

A long way to come back around to saying thank you. Newbies like me appreciate those like yourself who take the time to share your thoughts and reasoning.
 
Re: S Fund vs C Fund

Thanks guys. When it's time to be "IN", it usually makes sense to be in a high beta fund like the S Fund. When the general stock market moves higher, the S Fund typically outperforms the C Fund. Once things roll over, the high beta value of the S Fund magnifies your losses on the downside as well.

There sure appears to be a lot of technical damage going on with $TRAN, $COMPQ, $INDU and $SPX right now. I'm expecting a series of lower highs and lower lows for a while, as we grind our way down to a short term bottom. I don't see a "crash" per se, but this is definitely not a good time to be in the market, IMHO.

Good luck!
 
I think I learned a lesson this last week, at least in regards to "me". I was happily sitting in G, but made an end of month move into equities because I thought (given the 2 IFT limit) that was a good strategic move. The truth, however, was that except for it being the end of the month, I did not want to be in equities. I cannot let "strategy" override what I fundamentally think about the markets.
 
WhoDey said:
I think I learned a lesson this last week, at least in regards to "me". I was happily sitting in G, but made an end of month move into equities because I thought (given the 2 IFT limit) that was a good strategic move. The truth, however, was that except for it being the end of the month, I did not want to be in equities. I cannot let "strategy" override what I fundamentally think about the markets.
Click to expand...

I also entered due to the IFT restrictions and now I pay the price. I should of got out after the little pop on March 1st, but I got greedy and now I'm watching MrJohnRoss sail upwards as I fall. :(

Maybe tomorrow can give me a little back.
 
Back testing of my new timing system since 1/1/2009 (3+ years) has shown zero times that we have exceeded the 2 IFT limit for the TSP. Not that it won't happen in the future, but it appears highly unlikely.
 
MrJohnRoss said:
Back testing of my new timing system since 1/1/2009 (3+ years) has shown zero times that we have exceeded the 2 IFT limit for the TSP. Not that it won't happen in the future, but it appears highly unlikely.
Click to expand...
I had 5 in January and 3 in February.coolsmiley.gif
 
[TABLE="align: center"]
[TR="bgcolor: #365082"]
[TD="class: text-white, align: center"]Allocation date / time
[/TD]
[TD="class: text-white, width: 18%, align: center"]IFT date (COB)
[/TD]
[TD="class: text-white, width: 6%, align: center"]G %
[/TD]
[TD="class: text-white, width: 6%, align: center"]F %
[/TD]
[TD="class: text-white, width: 6%, align: center"]C %
[/TD]
[TD="class: text-white, width: 6%, align: center"]S %
[/TD]
[TD="class: text-white, width: 6%, align: center"]I %
[/TD]
[TD="class: text-white, width: 6%, align: center"]L2050 %
[/TD]
[TD="class: text-white, width: 6%, align: center"]L2040 %
[/TD]
[TD="class: text-white, width: 6%, align: center"]L2030 %
[/TD]
[TD="class: text-white, width: 6%, align: center"]L2020 %
[/TD]
[TD="class: text-white, width: 6%, align: center"]L-Inc %
[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]
[TABLE="align: center"]
[TR="class: text, bgcolor: #CCCCCC"]
[TD="align: center"]2012-02-22 09:44:39
[/TD]
[TD="width: 18%, align: center"]2012-02-22
[/TD]
[TD="width: 6%, align: center"]100
[/TD]
[TD="width: 6%, align: center"][/TD]
[TD="width: 6%, align: center"][/TD]
[TD="width: 6%, align: center"][/TD]
[TD="width: 6%, align: center"][/TD]
[TD="width: 6%, align: center"][/TD]
[TD="width: 6%, align: center"][/TD]
[TD="width: 6%, align: center"][/TD]
[TD="width: 6%, align: center"][/TD]
[TD="width: 6%, align: center"][/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]
[TABLE="align: center"]
[TR="class: text, bgcolor: #FFFF99"]
[TD="align: center"]2012-02-16 11:40:05
[/TD]
[TD="width: 18%, align: center"]2012-02-16
[/TD]
[TD="width: 6%, align: center"]85
[/TD]
[TD="width: 6%, align: center"][/TD]
[TD="width: 6%, align: center"][/TD]
[TD="width: 6%, align: center"]15
[/TD]
[TD="width: 6%, align: center"][/TD]
[TD="width: 6%, align: center"][/TD]
[TD="width: 6%, align: center"][/TD]
[TD="width: 6%, align: center"][/TD]
[TD="width: 6%, align: center"][/TD]
[TD="width: 6%, align: center"][/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]
[TABLE="align: center"]
[TR="class: text, bgcolor: #CCCCCC"]
[TD="align: center"]2012-02-08 11:04:24
[/TD]
[TD="width: 18%, align: center"]2012-02-08
[/TD]
[TD="width: 6%, align: center"]30
[/TD]
[TD="width: 6%, align: center"][/TD]
[TD="width: 6%, align: center"][/TD]
[TD="width: 6%, align: center"]70
[/TD]
[TD="width: 6%, align: center"][/TD]
[TD="width: 6%, align: center"][/TD]
[TD="width: 6%, align: center"][/TD]
[TD="width: 6%, align: center"][/TD]
[TD="width: 6%, align: center"][/TD]
[TD="width: 6%, align: center"][/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]
[TABLE="align: center"]
[TR="class: text, bgcolor: #FFFF99"]
[TD="align: center"]2012-01-30 11:21:26
[/TD]
[TD="width: 18%, align: center"]2012-01-30
[/TD]
[TD="width: 6%, align: center"]100
[/TD]
[TD="width: 6%, align: center"][/TD]
[TD="width: 6%, align: center"][/TD]
[TD="width: 6%, align: center"][/TD]
[TD="width: 6%, align: center"][/TD]
[TD="width: 6%, align: center"][/TD]
[TD="width: 6%, align: center"][/TD]
[TD="width: 6%, align: center"][/TD]
[TD="width: 6%, align: center"][/TD]
[TD="width: 6%, align: center"][/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]
[TABLE="align: center"]
[TR="class: text, bgcolor: #CCCCCC"]
[TD="align: center"]2012-01-23 12:00:35
[/TD]
[TD="width: 18%, align: center"]2012-01-23
[/TD]
[TD="width: 6%, align: center"]98
[/TD]
[TD="width: 6%, align: center"][/TD]
[TD="width: 6%, align: center"][/TD]
[TD="width: 6%, align: center"]2
[/TD]
[TD="width: 6%, align: center"][/TD]
[TD="width: 6%, align: center"][/TD]
[TD="width: 6%, align: center"][/TD]
[TD="width: 6%, align: center"][/TD]
[TD="width: 6%, align: center"][/TD]
[TD="width: 6%, align: center"][/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]
[TABLE="align: center"]
[TR="class: text, bgcolor: #FFFF99"]
[TD="align: center"]2012-01-20 11:32:18
[/TD]
[TD="width: 18%, align: center"]2012-01-20
[/TD]
[TD="width: 6%, align: center"]95
[/TD]
[TD="width: 6%, align: center"][/TD]
[TD="width: 6%, align: center"][/TD]
[TD="width: 6%, align: center"]5
[/TD]
[TD="width: 6%, align: center"][/TD]
[TD="width: 6%, align: center"][/TD]
[TD="width: 6%, align: center"][/TD]
[TD="width: 6%, align: center"][/TD]
[TD="width: 6%, align: center"][/TD]
[TD="width: 6%, align: center"][/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]
[TABLE="align: center"]
[TR="class: text, bgcolor: #CCCCCC"]
[TD="align: center"]2012-01-10 11:01:39
[/TD]
[TD="width: 18%, align: center"]2012-01-10
[/TD]
[TD="width: 6%, align: center"][/TD]
[TD="width: 6%, align: center"][/TD]
[TD="width: 6%, align: center"][/TD]
[TD="width: 6%, align: center"]100
[/TD]
[TD="width: 6%, align: center"][/TD]
[TD="width: 6%, align: center"][/TD]
[TD="width: 6%, align: center"][/TD]
[TD="width: 6%, align: center"][/TD]
[TD="width: 6%, align: center"][/TD]
[TD="width: 6%, align: center"][/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]
[TABLE="align: center"]
[TR="class: text, bgcolor: #FFFF99"]
[TD="align: center"]2012-01-06 10:51:30
[/TD]
[TD="width: 18%, align: center"]2012-01-06
[/TD]
[TD="width: 6%, align: center"]50
[/TD]
[TD="width: 6%, align: center"][/TD]
[TD="width: 6%, align: center"][/TD]
[TD="width: 6%, align: center"]50
[/TD]
[TD="width: 6%, align: center"][/TD]
[TD="width: 6%, align: center"][/TD]
[TD="width: 6%, align: center"][/TD]
[TD="width: 6%, align: center"][/TD]
[TD="width: 6%, align: center"][/TD]
[TD="width: 6%, align: center"][/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]
Sure did!:laugh:
 
Bronco07 said:
MJR,
Out of curosity, what do think of the F fund vice the G fund when getting out of the equity funds?
Cheers
Click to expand...

Hey Bronco07,

I've used both in the past, including a 50/50 allocation, but you'll need to be careful about using the F Fund. You can lose money if you buy at a peak, and it subsequently drops. It appears that you might be ok as of right now. See chart below.

agg.png

Good luck!
 
Why did I have to be stupid and jump in for this month...this sucks. Now I'm pretty deep in the hole and I don't know if I should hop out now or wait it out and hope that something positive comes to light this week...

JR, if you took all these hits would you be jumping out today or waiting it out? I know you did the smarter unemtioned thing and that was not getting in to begin with lol.

(just looking for your opinion, I know we can't predict what happens the rest of the week and I won't be mad at you if the opposite happens)
 
MaStA said:
Why did I have to be stupid and jump in for this month...this sucks. Now I'm pretty deep in the hole and I don't know if I should hop out now or wait it out and hope that something positive comes to light this week...

JR, if you took all these hits would you be jumping out today or waiting it out? I know you did the smarter unemtioned thing and that was not getting in to begin with lol.

(just looking for your opinion, I know we can't predict what happens the rest of the week and I won't be mad at you if the opposite happens)
Click to expand...

SPX-1400 or Bust !!
 
MaStA said:
Why did I have to be stupid and jump in for this month...this sucks. Now I'm pretty deep in the hole and I don't know if I should hop out now or wait it out and hope that something positive comes to light this week...

JR, if you took all these hits would you be jumping out today or waiting it out? I know you did the smarter unemtioned thing and that was not getting in to begin with lol.

(just looking for your opinion, I know we can't predict what happens the rest of the week and I won't be mad at you if the opposite happens)
Click to expand...

I can't give you (or anyone) investment advice, but if it were me, I would be out of the market at this point. In fact, my old system would likely be generating a "Sell" signal today, so you're not in that bad of shape.

Market is down less than 2%, so keep it in perspective.

Hope that helps.

Good luck!
 
This graph really shows what's been happening in the market the last few weeks. It's the NASDAQ Advances minus Declines (cumulative).

The advances really peaked in early February, leveled off, and it's been accelerating downhill ever since the end of Feb.

$NAAD.png

Since the NASDAQ was one of the primary leaders of this rally, this really pours a lot of cold water on the markets.

We may see some type of relief rally in the next few days, but my guess is that the market will only be looking for a place to start testing a short term bottom in the next week or two.

I wouldn't be surprised to see a correction of up to 10%. The markets just went too far without a break. Now, it looks like the break everyone has been expecting has finally arrived.

Good luck!
 
You must log in or register to reply here.

Similar threads

tsptalk
  • Article Article
TSP Talk - Where's the positive holiday bias?
Replies
0
Views
134
tsptalk
tsptalk
tsptalk
  • Article Article
TSP Talk - Back to back rallies into today's CPI inflation data
Replies
0
Views
541
tsptalk
tsptalk
tsptalk
  • Article Article
TSP Talk - China and Consumer Confidence push and pull the market
Replies
0
Views
2K
tsptalk
tsptalk
tsptalk
  • Article Article
TSP Talk - Stocks doing well in Roctober - so far
Replies
0
Views
374
tsptalk
tsptalk
tsptalk
  • Article Article
TSP Talk - Big tech jumps while broader market pauses
Replies
0
Views
114
tsptalk
tsptalk
Back
Top