MrJohnRoss' Account Talk

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MrJohnRoss said:
Hey Jared,

I hear ya. We got very close to a buy signal with my timing system, but it hasn't triggered yet. Like you, I fear that we may be reaching a market top, so I'm also hoping we don't get a buy signal right as we peak.

We'll just have to let the market play itself out, and let the system do it's work. The next few days will certainly be interesting...
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Thank you for your response as always. I was close to going back in to test the waters but as I look through the tracker at people who did extremely well last year, some of them aren't doing so well this year. This tells me either these people got very lucky last year or the system they are using isn't working out so well for them this year. The stuff that has been making the market go up and down recently doesn't seem predictable for the most part, but as I always say I don't know too much about this stuff to know for sure.

At the end of the day, I can at least know I am positive for the year thus far...which is nice to know. Being a dollar up is better than being 100 down. ;)
 
[h=1]Oooopss! The truth hurts... Exec: Goldman officials called clients 'muppets'[/h]The link above should tell you all you need to know about the financial services industry. 90% of it is a cesspool, only looking to make a buck. Maybe 10% of financial advisors are really looking out for their clients.

I tried looking out for my clients, but my "sales manager" wanted to fire me for not selling more company product, regardless if it was appropriate or not. That's why I left the business.
 
Here's the full Op-ed he wrote for the NYtimes, it's a good read.

http://www.nytimes.com/2012/03/14/opinion/why-i-am-leaving-goldman-sachs.html?ref=opinion

Greg Smith is resigning today as a Goldman Sachs executive director and head of the firm’s United States equity derivatives business in Europe, the Middle East and Africa.​

MrJohnRoss said:
Oooopss! The truth hurts... Exec: Goldman officials called clients 'muppets'

The link above should tell you all you need to know about the financial services industry. 90% of it is a cesspool, only looking to make a buck. Maybe 10% of financial advisors are really looking out for their clients.

I tried looking out for my clients, but my "sales manager" wanted to fire me for not selling more company product, regardless if it was appropriate or not. That's why I left the business.
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Mapper said:
Here's the full Op-ed he wrote for the NYtimes, it's a good read.

http://www.nytimes.com/2012/03/14/opinion/why-i-am-leaving-goldman-sachs.html?ref=opinion

Greg Smith is resigning today as a Goldman Sachs executive director and head of the firm’s United States equity derivatives business in Europe, the Middle East and Africa.​
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Thanks for the link.

Love this line: "I truly believe that this decline in the firm’s moral fiber represents the single most serious threat to its long-run survival."

Now, just replace the word "firm" with the word "U.S.", and you'll understand what I believe.
 
MrJohnRoss said:
Thanks for the link.

Love this line: "I truly believe that this decline in the firm’s moral fiber represents the single most serious threat to its long-run survival."

Now, just replace the word "firm" with the word "U.S.", and you'll understand what I believe.
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Yeah, me too. Which is why I can't figure out how people like us are so far apart on so many issues.
 
Thanks for this article!!! I am one of those currently out of the market and was today thinking of throwing in the towel and entering the market. Based on your reference I viewed a SP500 daily chart going back a few years with the bollinger band indicator and observed what Mr. Clark was referring too. In the past the price breaks the upper band for a few days (2-4) and then pulls back for the next 7-10 trading days!!! Today is the 3rd day the SP-500 is above the upper band!!! THIS along with other indicators showing we are topping will keep me on the sidelines. When retired I believe we have to take reasonable risks in favor of capital preservation. Now does not see to me to an oppurtune time. Better prices will be coming in the next week or two!!!
 
Thanks for the article JR. Seeing the S Fund up +13% & C Fund up +11%I keep second guessing myself all the time sitting waaaaay down on the AT. Bad choice after bad choice leaves me sitting at 996 on the AT at -81% for the year. Just about got in yesterday, but keep thinking it can't go up forever can it? Tired of getting kicked in the dirt. Second guessing keeps me sidelined. Don't want to get impatient again and jump in just in time for the ride down!!!
 
A good article but I wouldn't let a Bollinger Band line keep me out of this market. The bull market will power higher as long as people don't start buying into it in droves. There is more risk being out than being in the market - besides bulls really don't like company. There is no better time than now to buy into this secular bull because tomorrow it will cost even more. "Going all the way back to 1928, the current bull market ranks as the ninth longest ever. Even more impressive is the fact that of the nine bull markets that lasted longer, none saw a gain of 100% during their first three years. Based on the history of prior bulls that have hit the three year mark, year four has also been positive." There will probably be no chance to get in at cheaper pricing. Buy ahead of the bond herd.
 
MrJohnRoss said:
If you're thinking of getting back into the market, or kicking yourself because you're sitting in cash while the market keeps heading higher, you might want to read this....
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That is a very accurate description of me. Spot on.

I'm very new to this and struggling with when to re-enter equities. As you said, it's tough sitting on the sidelines, but my gut/brain tells me that things are about to top out.

From the little time that I've spent reading on this board, I've been impressed with the discipline displayed by so many here. Whether in or out of the current market, I don't see as much anxiety in posts here as I'd expect. Those in the market have confidence in their position and ride out the bad days. Those out of the market don't seem to stress out about missing some positive days.

Maybe I'll get there one day, but right now I feel like being out of the market is the most prudent move, yet every day as noon approaches my IFT finger gets itchy.

I might do better betting on the NCAAs.
 
WhoDey,

Don't worry you'll have the same amount of money tomorrow and you'll rest calmly. However, when you think about missing the train your anxiety level will rise. My strategy has always been: Time in the market can be more rewarding than timing the market. The higher the fund prices go the fewer shares you'll buy and it will take even longer to make those gains. Friend, it's time to...well never mind.
 
Birchtree said:
.... My strategy has always been: Time in the market can be more rewarding than timing the market. The higher the fund prices go the fewer shares you'll buy and it will take even longer to make those gains. .....
Click to expand...

That jingle was created by the marketing department of the brokerage houses to assuage the masses who don't have a clue on how to handle their own money. Maybe GS had it right to refer to the masses as "muppets". (Well, okay, not really). So the brokerage houses just tell the little people to keep pumping money into their retirement accounts regardless of what's happening in the market, because the more money they manage, the higher their management fees.

I believe that we DO have a choice on how we can more intelligently invest our hard earned money, and that's by using a well designed timing system that has proven to beat the market year after year.

Look, we all have our opinions. But I simply look at the facts. I've posted my charts and tables here numerous times, showing the results of using a pretty decent timing system that has beaten the market for 5 years straight. It's obviously not perfect, but I can't imagine giving it up in favor of buy and hold.

Birch, if I were in your shoes, I would most likely never sell my core holdings of world dominating dividend payers. (Well.... never say never. LoL). I'd let 'em compound and grow and spin off a nice income stream.

But my reason for posting this link was to help people think before they leap, and to avoid the emotional temptation of buying in at a market high. Even though there is a possibility that you are correct, and the market only goes higher from here, I believe that the odds are higher that we'll see a pullback in the near future, and I'd hate to see people get burned.

Good luck everyone!
 
Big Picture Post...


"Having no other choice" is a social fractal. Why do families persist in taking on $100,000 student loans for mostly mediocre educations with mostly mediocre "benefits" in the job market? Because they feel they have no other choice.

Why do people persist in mortgaging their future and accepting the yoke of debt-serfdom to own a house? Because they feel they have no other choice, and owning a house has become integral to the "American dream."

Why do local state, county and city politicos continue playing absurd budget games, shuffling funds, borrowing from their employees' pension plans to make this year's pension plan contribution and similar threadbare tricks? You guessed it: they have no other choice, lest someone somewhere feel some pain.

Why do our Federal "leaders" borrow $1.5 trillion each and every year now, fully 10% of the nation's total output, knowing full well that this level of borrowing will bankrupt the nation? (Don't forget to add in the "supplemental" off-budget borrowing.) You know: they have no other choice, lest someone somewhere feel some pain.

So instead they keep the accelerating vehicle pointed straight for the cliff. There are only two end-states to this level of borrowing: hyper-inflation or default. Any other "choice" is mere fantasy.


Link to full article HERE.
 
Some of you may not like this post...

... we see headlines that the UK will cooperate with the US on bilateral agreement to release oil stocks. Crude down big on the news, which is merely an advance move ahead of almost inevitable war with Iran, simply to make the spike more palatable.

The push to get Iran to do something terminally irrational (now that USS Enterprise in its final tour of duty is almost on location just off the side of CVN-70 Lincoln and CVN-72 Vinson in the Arabian Sea, where the US will shortly have not one, not two, but three aircraft carriers) is now in its final stretch.

As AP reported earlier, Iran has been now entirely cut off from the global financial system, as that anchor of international financial transactions, SWIFT, has just taken Iran off the grid. This leaves Iran with just three options for international trade: making gold into a fully convertible currency, barter, or exchanging Rials for Renminbi and other local currencies....

Link to full article HERE.
 
Please don't take me too seriously - I'm just having fun while making money. Put this on my headstone: It's always darkest before the dawn. It was dark out there - real dark. And yet, we should have all bought more. So many younger members suffer from myopic loss aversion - sometimes you have to give it up before it comes back - like playing the I fund. Many investors miss the fact opportunity missed can be just as harmful to achieving investment objectives in the long term as money lost.
 
Birch, I love jousting with you here at the Forum! I have a feeling that if we ever got a chance to get together and belly up to the bar, we'd have a great time! I think we're more alike than we are different, even if you are a buy and hold "permabull". It fits your personality to a tee.

Wishing nothing but the best for you, my friend.
 
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