MrJohnRoss' Account Talk

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[h=1]Why You Should Stop Trying to Beat the Market[/h]

This article is hilarious. Unfortunately, Fidelity is pumping these articles to get you to PUT MORE MONEY IN THEIR COFFERS. Forget about timing the market, just save more! And people swallow this stuff up. Amazing.

http://finance.yahoo.com/focus-retirement/article/113716/stop-trying-beat-market-cnnmoney;_ylt=AvdN.Ue8F4X4TNhG9BlNznZO7sMF;_ylu=X3oDMTE1cGEzMGc4BHBvcwMzBHNlYwNmaWRlbGl0eUZQBHNsawN3aHl5b3VzaG91bGQ-?mod=fidelity-startingout&cat=fidelity_2010_starting_out

Oh, I also think the author's name says it all... Walter Updegrave

LOL!
 
Looks like Italy is going to be the next domino to fall. And she's a BIG one! That should send a few shock waves over all of Europe and across the pond!

Meanwhile, the market goes higher today. Go figure!

I'm still long the market. We would need to see the Dow drop a looong way before my technical indicators would signal a move to cash. I think we're nearing a decision point, uptrend and downtrend lines converged today. Tomorrow should be quite interesting...

Best wishes everyone!
 
MrJohnRoss said:
Looks like Italy is going to be the next domino to fall. And she's a BIG one! That should send a few shock waves over all of Europe and across the pond!

Meanwhile, the market goes higher today. Go figure!

I'm still long the market. We would need to see the Dow drop a looong way before my technical indicators would signal a move to cash. I think we're nearing a decision point, uptrend and downtrend lines converged today. Tomorrow should be quite interesting...

Best wishes everyone!
Click to expand...
I no longer believe that any bad news will prevent this market from continuing to go up. Nothing to date has been more than a flinch to the US markets...

However, I also believe that when reality hits, whether it is this week, this month, this year, or even next year, the drop will be without equal.

As we are doing this to ourselves, I am just waiting for both shoes to drop.
 
RealMoneyIssues said:
I no longer believe that any bad news will prevent this market from continuing to go up. Nothing to date has been more than a flinch to the US markets...

However, I also believe that when reality hits, whether it is this week, this month, this year, or even next year, the drop will be without equal.

As we are doing this to ourselves, I am just waiting for both shoes to drop.
Click to expand...

Thanks for your reply RMI.

I am in complete agreement with you. I believe we are witnessing a massive collapse of the financial system of the entire planet... in slow motion. I have a hard time believing that investors cheer on every little piece of good news to move the market higher, but it's happening. That's why I use my technical indicators. If I used emotion, common logic, fundamental analysis... whatever you want to call it, I would have been sitting in cash for years now. Instead, I will take what the market gives me, and when it heads lower, I'll use my indicators to get me out. I'm using leveraged funds in my brokerage accounts for upside and downside gains, and have been ecstatic with the results.

So glad to see that you understand what is going on in the world's financial markets. I've tried to explain the things that are going on in the world to my wife, but she thinks I am WAY out there with my predictions for the U.S. They are scary predictions, but I want her to understand just how bad things might get.

Keep the faith, brother.
 
MrJohnRoss said:
Thanks for your reply RMI.

I am in complete agreement with you. I believe we are witnessing a massive collapse of the financial system of the entire planet... in slow motion. I have a hard time believing that investors cheer on every little piece of good news to move the market higher, but it's happening. That's why I use my technical indicators. If I used emotion, common logic, fundamental analysis... whatever you want to call it, I would have been sitting in cash for years now. Instead, I will take what the market gives me, and when it heads lower, I'll use my indicators to get me out. I'm using leveraged funds in my brokerage accounts for upside and downside gains, and have been ecstatic with the results.

So glad to see that you understand what is going on in the world's financial markets. I've tried to explain the things that are going on in the world to my wife, but she thinks I am WAY out there with my predictions for the U.S. They are scary predictions, but I want her to understand just how bad things might get.

Keep the faith, brother.
Click to expand...


How about.....this bad? Daneric and Prechter both think we'll hit DOW 1 freakin thousand before she's all said and done.

http://danericselliottwaves.blogspot.com/2011/10/elliott-wave-update-31-october-2011.html

wlshweekly.png
 
Birchtree said:
Send in the clowns - never mind, they're already here.
Click to expand...
Be nice, Permabull.

Not everyone reads only bullish news.

We like to be prepared, so even though we predict the market will go down, doesn't mean we aren't in stocks now and taking advantage of these prices...
 
Birch, you should try timing the market. You'll get much better returns. I don't believe Buy & Hold is a good strategy these days, except for the possible exception of World Dominating Dividend Growers. Take a look at my annual returns, and compare them to Buy & Hold. I think you'll see what I mean.

For the past 11+ years, buy & hold has been a losing proposition.

Best of luck!
 
No thankyou, I'm happy and content with my buy and hold strategy. I've worked on my discipline for years.
 
Birchtree said:
No thankyou, I'm happy and content with my buy and hold strategy. I've worked on my discipline for years.
Click to expand...

If you're happy and content, I wouldn't change a thing either. Besides buy & hold, what investment strategy do you use?
 
Wow! S&P drops 3.67% today! If the market drops another 1%, in all likelyhood, it will trigger a sell signal.

I'll be watching the first hour of market trading very carefully tomorrow morning. As I'm sure most of you will be too.

Isn't just amazing that the market suddenly "woke up" and realized that "Hey, we might be having a problem over there in Europe".

Duh. Ya think?
 
I think it has been mostly program selling - now they'll buy back to create volatility.
 
Break out the party hats! Apparently the Market thinks all the problems in Europe have been solved! Yippee! :nuts:

My System remains on a "Buy" signal.

Good luck!
 
Nordic said:
How about.....this bad? Daneric and Prechter both think we'll hit DOW 1 freakin thousand before she's all said and done.

http://danericselliottwaves.blogspot.com/2011/10/elliott-wave-update-31-october-2011.html

wlshweekly.png
Click to expand...

That's a very interesting graph you have there, Nordic. And the web link is interesting as well. I wouldn't be too surprised to see it come true. I think there's a strong possibility that we'll follow in the path of the Japanese market. As they say, "time will tell".

Thanks for your input!
 
Here's an updated version of my annual returns table.
The S&P is now up 0.5% for the year, while my Timing System is up 10.3%, which is below my compounded average return of 14.2%.
2011 has been a tough year!


[TD="class: xl78"] Year:
 [/TD]
[TD="class: xl65, width: 84"] S&P [/TD]
[TD="class: xl66, width: 84"] TIMING [/TD]

[TD="class: xl73"] 2007 [/TD]
[TD="class: xl67, align: right"] 3.5% [/TD]
[TD="class: xl68, align: right"] 11.7%
 [/TD]

[TD="class: xl73"] 2008 [/TD]
[TD="class: xl69, align: right"] -38.5% [/TD]
[TD="class: xl70, align: right"] -3.9% [/TD]

[TD="class: xl73"] 2009 [/TD]
[TD="class: xl69, align: right"] 23.5% [/TD]
[TD="class: xl70, align: right"] 32.5% [/TD]

[TD="class: xl73"] 2010 [/TD]
[TD="class: xl69, align: right"] 12.8% [/TD]
[TD="class: xl70, align: right"] 21.8%
 [/TD]

[TD="class: xl77"] 2011 YTD [/TD]
[TD="class: xl71, align: right"] 0.5% [/TD]
[TD="class: xl72, align: right"] 10.3% [/TD]

[TD="class: xl79, width: 91"] Total Return
 [/TD]
[TD="class: xl80, align: right"] -10.9% [/TD]
[TD="class: xl81, align: right"] 91.0% [/TD]

[TD="class: xl74"] CAGR [/TD]
[TD="class: xl75, align: right"] -2.3% [/TD]
[TD="class: xl76, align: right"] 14.2%
 [/TD]
 
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