RealMoneyIssues
Well-known member
I swear, I haven't touched the Dislike button... especially not on JP :nuts:
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MrJohnRoss' Account Talk
- Thread starter MrJohnRoss
- Start date
I swear, I haven't touched the Dislike button... especially not on JP :nuts:
jpcavin
Well-known member
I'm sure Bush 43rd had something to do with it. :laugh:
MrJohnRoss
Well-known member
Looks like a Death Cross (50 DMA crossing below 200 DMA) will be occurring today for both the Dow Industrials and the $NYA. (The $NYA is a broader index that includes all the stocks in the Dow, the Transports, and the Utilities.) Would not be surprised to see the S&P follow suit within the next month or so, as the market continues to sag lower from what appears to be a rounded top (domed house).
konakathy
Well-known member
Smart move, especially after this week's sell-off.
MrJohnRoss
Well-known member
Thanks, been out of stocks since 06/09/15 (G Fund) before making the switch to the F Fund. I believe the Dow and S&P peaked in mid May.
This environment is exactly why I will probably move money out of the TSP and into a self directed IRA when my wife retires. At best, I can only eek out a tiny percentage with the G or F Fund. No bueno. I've been expecting heavy downside momentum, and we're finally getting it.
I've been leveraged in my 401k very heavily towards the downside with RUSS, TZA and DWTI making up about 90% of my holdings. It's paying off rather well.
I wouldn't be surprised to see a sharp snap back rally on Monday, but my guess is that it'll most likely be a dead cat bounce. I'm of the belief that Mr. Market has quite a ways further down to go over the next few weeks.
Best of luck and good fortune to each of you.
uscfanhawaii
Active member
So Monday did your crossover big time. What your chart does not show was what was the actual price of SPX when it made the weekly crossover. If I sell tuesday because the lines crossed Monday, I will be locking in almost 9% losses. I guess to avoid a 30+% loss(?). And looking at Oct '11, you did not mark that a 'sell' even tho the lines crossed. And if you did sell then, it looks like you would have lost overall by locking in that loss. We are there. What do you suggest? Of course, you were already out of the market before this crossover, but if you had stayed in like me and lots of others, would you still recommend selling at these low (but maybe not bottom) prices?
userque
Well-known member
I mentioned previously, when this or a similar chart was posted, about it not having the most important metric--price. I seemed to be alone in my concerns. Bravo to you. :smile:
uscfanhawaii
Active member
Exactly. My previous approach was to just ride out the dip if I was already 'all in'. Or, if not, to buy the dip. This is a real different approach... to be SELLING after a ~9% drop. Maybe I will just try it with a small % of my total. :worried:
MrJohnRoss
Well-known member
Here's the updated chart of the long term buy/sell signal for the S&P. This is a weekly chart, with the 10 EMA getting ready to cross the 50 EMA. Looks like futures are down sharply tonight, so a crossover is likely tomorrow. We'll have to see how the rest of the week plays out, but I sure wouldn't want to be in this market. I added the zoom thumbnail so you can get a close-up look at the recent action.
The two conditions for a sell are (1) the EMA crossovers, and (2) the Stoch RSI reaching 0.0. I added a third condition, (if you need one), in that the PMO crosses the zero line. We should get that momentarily.
BTW, Oct '11 did not constitute a sell signal, as only condition (1) was met. Current price isn't shown, because it's not part of the equation for a buy or sell signal, even though the price is called out at the top of the chart. Adding the price just makes the chart too busy. In this case, simpler is better, IMHO.
As far as selling after a 9% drop, that's an individual choice. If I were still in, I certainly wouldn't want to ride another bear market all the way down and back up, which could take years, but that's just me. Perhaps we won't really get a bear market. No one has a crystal ball to predict the future, but I thought I'd share this handy chart, since it would have kept you out of the last two major bear markets.
As with everything else in life, there are no guarantees. This is just info that I thought I'd pass along, and I hope it's helpful to at least some of you.
Best of luck with your investments.
The two conditions for a sell are (1) the EMA crossovers, and (2) the Stoch RSI reaching 0.0. I added a third condition, (if you need one), in that the PMO crosses the zero line. We should get that momentarily.
BTW, Oct '11 did not constitute a sell signal, as only condition (1) was met. Current price isn't shown, because it's not part of the equation for a buy or sell signal, even though the price is called out at the top of the chart. Adding the price just makes the chart too busy. In this case, simpler is better, IMHO.
As far as selling after a 9% drop, that's an individual choice. If I were still in, I certainly wouldn't want to ride another bear market all the way down and back up, which could take years, but that's just me. Perhaps we won't really get a bear market. No one has a crystal ball to predict the future, but I thought I'd share this handy chart, since it would have kept you out of the last two major bear markets.
As with everything else in life, there are no guarantees. This is just info that I thought I'd pass along, and I hope it's helpful to at least some of you.
Best of luck with your investments.
userque
Well-known member
Glad you responded to the other queries. :smile:
One cannot tell how well the 'system' works with the price line removed. One either has to remember, "Oh yeah, the market did crash circa 2008...but I'm not exactly sure when it began or ended..." Or one is relegated to look at another chart, and match up the dates in order to determine, "oh yeah, his system works!" or not.
Your 'system' might be early, or lagging. We can't tell. But that is something that's good to know.
Simple or 'complex', the above alternatives justify just putting the price back where it should be. Where everyone else in the world expects it. Where everyone is used to it being. On the chart. IMHO
I know I know. I can just make my own chart...just offering my humble opinion. I won't bug you about it anymore.:smile:
k0nkuzh0n
Well-known member
I can certainly understand putting the SPX price line on the chart would make it busy, but would you mind at least putting the prices at which the signals occurred? That's only 4 (probably 5 after today) spots. Or maybe at least list them so we can have some idea as to how well this strategy has performed?
uscfanhawaii
Active member
Thanks for the clarification, John!! Yes, I have been tracking your 'long term' view that you suggested quite some time ago, but now that we are there, I am realizing that the actual price would have to have already fallen quite a ways for the crossover to occur. Especially since the metrics are based on weekly returns. Still, the point is that it predicts a lot lower (perhaps bear market) movement ahead. So it is probably not too late to bail. In fact, this is the actual time to bail based on the metrics.
Now the HARD PART.....getting over the emotional situation of having to sell after losing such a high %. :smashfreakB:
That chart looks a lot like this one, a Public Chart at StockCharts.com It's #57. Above the Green Line - Sep 1, 2015 Buy high, and Sell Higher: Momentum Investing - Joanne Klein - Public ChartList - StockCharts.com
Pretty good return for the long-term investor.
Here are the last five signals:
8/8/94 Buy $SPX 462
11/6/00 Sell 1366
6/2/03 Buy 988
1/7/08 Sell 1401
8/24/09 Buy 1029
Pretty good return for the long-term investor.
Here are the last five signals:
8/8/94 Buy $SPX 462
11/6/00 Sell 1366
6/2/03 Buy 988
1/7/08 Sell 1401
8/24/09 Buy 1029
userque
Well-known member
k0nkuzh0n
Well-known member
I think you are missing the last two signals. Sell in 2011, and buy in 2012. Do you know what those numbers were?
On edit: Never mind, those weren't actual signals because of the RSI.
Also remember this is weekly... so technically it can't give a Sell signal until this Friday.
uscfanhawaii
Active member
OK, I'm convinced. Sending all my depressed equities to G and F.
CAPITULATION.
This feels real weird....usually I would be BUYING now. Instead, I am locking in a 9% loss. But the charts are REAL HARD to ignore! :wall:
CAPITULATION.
This feels real weird....usually I would be BUYING now. Instead, I am locking in a 9% loss. But the charts are REAL HARD to ignore! :wall:
Does anyone know if it's possible to add the "StochRSI(89) 0.000" indicator to the interactive charts in Yahoo Finance? I don't see that as an option...not sure if it's an exclusive indicator to stockcharts.com (which I don't really use). I use a similar timing system with a weekly 20EMA and 70EMA crossover as the buy/sell trigger, but Mr.JohnRoss' version with the StochRSI definitely seems superior. Thanks!
k0nkuzh0n
Well-known member
BTW, it did give a sell signal on Friday, Sept 4.
MrJohnRoss
Well-known member
It will be interesting to see how the market performs over the next few weeks. In the last 16 years, the long term sell signal has only happened twice before, so it's worth paying attention to. My guess is that the market rallies with a Fed decision to leave rates alone, but then falls because of uncertainty for the next two meetings this year, as the market doesn't like uncertainty.
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