MrJohnRoss' Account Talk

[tsptalk]

Sorry folks. I'm not going to play the drama game and I am not going to let this fester - ESPECIALLY in other threads. I am deleting all posts related to it.

I have contacted with MrJohnRoss and Intrepid and they are adults and can handle it on their own. The rest is just rubber necking. If you keep posting about it it will be a waste of time and I will delete them. Nothing personal. I am just too busy to deal with it.

This thread will reopen on Monday morning. Enjoy your weekend.

 

[MrJohnRoss]

The next support line is likely to be the 2085 area (green line), and then possibly the 2072 area (red line). We're not talking about a bear market here, folks. If we hit the red line, we'd only be down -1.8% from our current levels. Not a biggie.

Updated 60 minute chart of the S&P 500:





The market did just exactly what we thought it would do - that is, hit the first support line (green line), bounce off, then head down and bounce off the second support line (red line). Short term indicators were showing an oversold condition on Friday, so I wasn't surprised to see a relief rally today. I'm not convinced that we're done with the sell-off yet. There's still a lot of negative momentum that has to resolve itself. Of course, if the markets roar higher, then all bets are off, but I'm guessing that the markets may remain weak for a bit longer. The 50 DMA is currently at 2062, which is the next logical support, so I'm gonna be sure that holds before jumping back in the pool.

BTW, thank you for all your kind words, I do appreciate it.

 

[MrJohnRoss]

The market did just exactly what we thought it would do - that is, hit the first support line (green line), bounce off, then head down and bounce off the second support line (red line). Short term indicators were showing an oversold condition on Friday, so I wasn't surprised to see a relief rally today. I'm not convinced that we're done with the sell-off yet. There's still a lot of negative momentum that has to resolve itself. Of course, if the markets roar higher, then all bets are off, but I'm guessing that the markets may remain weak for a bit longer. The 50 DMA is currently at 2062, which is the next logical support, so I'm gonna be sure that holds before jumping back in the pool.

BTW, thank you for all your kind words, I do appreciate it.

The market blew right past the 50 day like a hot knife through butter. Downside momentum is pretty steep. So where's the next level of support? My guess is it's most likely to be near the 200 DMA (currently at 2001), or just above it. There's a support line that held the market from Dec - Feb that is roughly near the 2020 level, so somewhere in the 2000 - 2020 range may offer support. Of course, if that area fails, it could spell trouble, as the next area of support is the October low in the 1850 area.

 

[Khotso]

The market blew right past the 50 day like a hot knife through butter. Downside momentum is pretty steep. So where's the next level of support? My guess is it's most likely to be near the 200 DMA (currently at 2001), or just above it. There's a support line that held the market from Dec - Feb that is roughly near the 2020 level, so somewhere in the 2000 - 2020 range may offer support. Of course, if that area fails, it could spell trouble, as the next area of support is the October low in the 1850 area.

Yikes! Well let's hope we get at least a dead cat bounce tomorrow, eh?

 

[MrJohnRoss]

Yikes! Well let's hope we get at least a dead cat bounce tomorrow, eh?

Yes, we're pretty oversold on the short term charts, so I wouldn't be surprised to see a counter-trend move soon. Also note that many of the other recent reversals (one in Dec, and three in Jan) happened in rapid V shaped moves higher to keep traders guessing.

 

[Mcqlives]

Yes, we're pretty oversold on the short term charts, so I wouldn't be surprised to see a counter-trend move soon. Also note that many of the other recent reversals (one in Dec, and three in Jan) happened in rapid V shaped moves higher to keep traders guessing.

That describes why I almost went in today. I didn't but I was tempted to try to catch the falling knife and grab 1-2% then be done for the month. As it is, I hope to get a better buy in opportunity soon.

 

[MrJohnRoss]

Updated graph of the S&P 500:




Daily return for the I Fund: -1.69%
Daily return for the C Fund: -1.69%

That doesn't happen very often, does it?

The S&P MOSI is at -77, so it's accelerating down. We might hit -100 if this keeps up. That would indicate an extreme oversold condition, ripe for a bounce.

 

[MrJohnRoss]

In the 2.5 hours between when the market opens, and when our IFT cutoff time expires, is our opportunity to determine if we should IFT back into the market. From what I'm seeing so far, this is a pretty weak bounce after a -333 point loss for the Dow yesterday. If there's going to be a "V" shaped bounce higher, it doesn't look like today is the day.

Also, my last post contained an error. I stated that the S&P MOSI was at -77. Actually, the McClellan Oscillator is at -77, not the Summation Index. There is a difference. My apologies for any confusion.

 

[MrJohnRoss]

The Dow and S&P are now negative for the year. C Fund is sitting at -0.47% YTD, S Fund at +2.62%, and I Fund is the leader at +2.96, but it's slipping lower.

Not a good day for the markets. No rebound, no washout to build on, nothing. No significant changes on the charts, just a day where the market struggled to go anywhere.

Futures are currently lower, so we'll see how the next couple of days play out. I guess I am thankful that we haven't gotten a "suckers rally" that I may have been tempted to bite.

 

[airlift]

The Dow and S&P are now negative for the year. C Fund is sitting at -0.47% YTD, S Fund at +2.62%, and I Fund is the leader at +2.96, but it's slipping lower.

Not a good day for the markets. No rebound, no washout to build on, nothing. No significant changes on the charts, just a day where the market struggled to go anywhere.

Futures are currently lower, so we'll see how the next couple of days play out. I guess I am thankful that we haven't gotten a "suckers rally" that I may have been tempted to bite.

MRJ,

We are trying to know whether this is a dead cat bounce, a suckers" rally, or whether this rally has any legs or breath left. Thank you for your charts and your comments. This morning coming out of Europe we are getting a short rally on the Euro vs. the U.S. dollar. Perhaps this will help to prevent a precipice in stocks; provided that the price of oil doesn't drop below approx. $48.00, and provided that other indicators and news are positive. The Greece is still battling it out against the ECB, trying to get another free ride without doing structural reforms, so this could be a problem. But DWCPF and RUT ended positive at the close, favoring small caps and the TSP S Fund. Do you think that your indicators today might support a rally for a bit longer, even if we should drop down later again?

Reading your indicators, and perhaps adding to the plus side, I noticed that the SPX McClellan oscillator dropped to -68.93 (versus the prior 70 +). Do you read this as a short term indicator that might help to the upside; or as a longer term indicator? As a learning tool, I will appreciate your opinion. Tia.

 

[MrJohnRoss]

It's hard to tell if this rally has any legs in it... yet. This could be a suckers rally, or this could be the beginning of a multi-day relief rally. In any event, I've decided to use my 2nd IFT for March, and move to the S Fund.

Good luck!

 

[Khotso]

It's hard to tell if this rally has any legs in it... yet. This could be a suckers rally, or this could be the beginning of a multi-day relief rally. In any event, I've decided to use my 2nd IFT for March, and move to the S Fund.

Good luck!

Being in the S fund myself, that makes me feel much better about staying ... for now. Still got 23 minutes though!

 

[weatherweenie]

It's hard to tell if this rally has any legs in it... yet. This could be a suckers rally, or this could be the beginning of a multi-day relief rally. In any event, I've decided to use my 2nd IFT for March, and move to the S Fund.

Good luck!

Gusty call Mav. Welcome aboard.

 

[wavecoder]

It's hard to tell if this rally has any legs in it... yet. This could be a suckers rally, or this could be the beginning of a multi-day relief rally. In any event, I've decided to use my 2nd IFT for March, and move to the S Fund.

Good luck!

FWIW, my system's saying to stay in (intermediate / LT indicators) good luck!

ps - i was expecting more of a pullback in the short term, but maybe so was everyone else

 

[MrJohnRoss]

Updated graph of the 60 minute S&P 500:




A couple of items to note... The market closed very near the high for the day. The previous two days, the market closed near it's low. Today's close is a positive sign.

Previous support may become resistance. Let's see if the S&P can clear the red line, which is sitting just under 2070. Also, even though it's not shown on this graph, the S&P has cleared the 50 DMA, which is another positive.

Obviously, if the dollar continues it's strength, and oil continues to fall, that could hurt the market again in the near future.

Keep your eyes on the road and your hands upon the wheel. ~ Jim Morrison

 

[MrJohnRoss]

Why the Stock Market Must Drop Next Week ~ Brad Gudgeon

"... Monday should be down hard from the get go, in fact it should gap down hard! It has a price projection of between SPX 2028-2031, from the current 2053. The snap back should finish with a Tuesday close near 2050.
Wednesday should see the SPX down about 50 points (this is quite strange, as FED day normally rallies into the FED announcement) to about SPX 2000, right at the 200 day moving average.
A rally to near 2022 would be the expectation for Thursday, finishing at 2017.
Friday (OPEX) should see the SPX drop (gapping down hard!) to 1964, or down 53.
The following Monday should see the final test at 1957/58, the 50% retracement level of the A Wave (Oct 15 to Dec 29). It also fits the symmetry perfectly! ..."

 

[JTH]

Why the Stock Market Must Drop Next Week ~ Brad Gudgeon

"... Monday should be down hard from the get go, in fact it should gap down hard! It has a price projection of between SPX 2028-2031, from the current 2053. The snap back should finish with a Tuesday close near 2050.
Wednesday should see the SPX down about 50 points (this is quite strange, as FED day normally rallies into the FED announcement) to about SPX 2000, right at the 200 day moving average.
A rally to near 2022 would be the expectation for Thursday, finishing at 2017.
Friday (OPEX) should see the SPX drop (gapping down hard!) to 1964, or down 53.
The following Monday should see the final test at 1957/58, the 50% retracement level of the A Wave (Oct 15 to Dec 29). It also fits the symmetry perfectly! ..."

If I didn't know any better, I'd swear you're trying to feed the fear machine

 

[MrJohnRoss]

If I didn't know any better, I'd swear you're trying to feed the fear machine

Heh heh heh. There's an old saying... I don't make the news, I just report it. Just thought it was a gutsy call. So far it hasn't panned out, but stranger things have happened.

I'm actually surprised at the market strength. I'm wading in deeper, and hope it's not a suckers rally. Not sure why I'm feeling uneasy about this rally. Maybe because there's not a lot of technical reasons why I got back in, just a fear of missing out on a nice rally.

Very little time to post much or read other posts. I have a major back yard renovation going on, and most of my spare time during daylight hours is spent shoveling dirt.

Good luck!

 

[wavecoder]

I don't think it's a sucker's rally, it almost seems normal that the market doesn't crash when your average investors are all afraid. I personally love fear in the market, that's when it's time to buy and make some scrilla

 

[jkenjohnson]

Unless I am looking at the wrong chart, it looks like the MOSI is even more negative and sloping downward at a steeper rate. I was just wondering what you thought about it?