MrJohnRoss' Account Talk

[MrJohnRoss]

Updated 1 hour chart of the S&P 500:


View attachment 32662

Just catching up on the markets today, as I had a big project that lasted all day. Was pleasantly surprised to see how well the markets performed. S&P back up near an all time high, and the Nasdaq finally closed above 5,000, which bode well for TQQQ, which was up 2.70% today. Not bad. The MOSI turned back up today, but it's still skirting along the edge of the trigger line for a sell signal. The next day or two will be important to see if this rally will last a little bit longer, or if the cycle timing band has gotten too far stretched. I'm guessing that the rally won't last too much longer. I'll keep my eyes peeled for the tell tale signs...

Just getting a chance to look at the markets. The S&P dropped hard out of the gate, kissed the lower regression channel line, then promptly bounced higher. The market is having a hard time declining, but I'm seeing more and more evidence of stocks rolling over, especially high flyers. The Transports have failed to make new highs, and the Utilities have been getting crushed since the last week of January. The Dow theory is in trouble if the Transports can't confirm new highs for the market. I'm still hanging on, but very near the exits, just in case...

 

[MrJohnRoss]

[h=2]Oil glut: US running out of room to store crude; prices for oil and gasoline could plunge[/h]In mid-April, we'll be at "tank-tops". Think DWTI.

 

[airlift]

Oil glut: US running out of room to store crude; prices for oil and gasoline could plunge

In mid-April, we'll be at "tank-tops". Think DWTI.

MJR,

I want to ask a question that might be helpful to many others as well. Since your statement is related to tops and tank-tops, the price of oil has had a significant impact on the stock market and the availability of discretionary funds for the consumer. Can you please help me understand the possibility that Jim Cramer is correct (in today's program)?

I did not see the whole explanation, but Cramer presented a chart of the SPX and the VIX. The comparisons come from someone I understood to be "Sebastian" or something close to this. The idea is that the charts show that every time in the last year or so, approx. 2 weeks prior to the FED's policy announcement, the SPX rises significantly even with complacency, but Yellin's soothing words have kept the markets levitating. However, something is about to change, because Yellin wants to raise rates at some nearby point sooner rather than later. Cramer indicated the next meeting to be on or around March 17. Cramer said that a couple more days of dropping like today, would reduce or correct the state of complacency. What I failed to hear was what the conclusion is, because I did not listen to the explanation due to some interruptions where I was watching part of the program and I had not recorded it at home.

Question: Whether or not the SPX will most likely keep rising prior to March 17? Perhaps you, or someone else who saw Cramer today might clarify this. Thanks for your help.

 

[exnavyew]

[h=1]Get ready—Fed to cause major turmoil this month[/h]
Get ready

 

[airlift]

Get ready—Fed to cause major turmoil this month


Get ready

You are spot-on. Thanks for sending this article and clarifying the message.

 

[MrJohnRoss]

Updated graph of the S&P 500 MOSI. We have a confirmed sell signal, however slight. More caution flags going up...

 

[MrJohnRoss]

We all knew it was coming, and it was just a matter of time. Used my first March IFT to move to the G Fund, effective at the close today.

Also closed out my positions in BIB (+11.8%), and TQQQ (+16.1%). Not bad for a swing trade that started in January.

Good luck!

 

[airlift]

Updated graph of the S&P 500 MOSI. We have a confirmed sell signal, however slight. More caution flags going up...


View attachment 32693

MRJ, exactly where did you detect caution flags going up in this chart? Tia.

 

[MrJohnRoss]

MRJ, exactly where did you detect caution flags going up in this chart? Tia.

The MOSI went negative. I use the 5 DMA as a trigger to avoid whipsaws. Yw.

 

[soon2retire]

ETF Market Vital Signs, March 3: Fatigue Sets In - Focus on Funds - Barrons.com

 

[MrJohnRoss]

Three Peaks and a Domed House?

"... If we remind ourselves that history rhymes but it doesn't repeat, we can think of the Oct rally as more closely resembling an ascending base. In this case we need to count the 222-day interval from the low of the separating decline. This count points to a final high for the bull market near May 25."...

 

[JTH]

Three Peaks and a Domed House?

"... If we remind ourselves that history rhymes but it doesn't repeat, we can think of the Oct rally as more closely resembling an ascending base. In this case we need to count the 222-day interval from the low of the separating decline. This count points to a final high for the bull market near May 25."...

I wish you hadn't notice that, I've been watching it, I call it the MFF or Middle Finger Formation, sort of like a big FU to the bulls.

 

[airlift]

Updated graph of the S&P 500 MOSI. We have a confirmed sell signal, however slight. More caution flags going up...


View attachment 32693

MJR,

Although I have the Extra plan from Stockcharts, I have had a rough time trying to create for my use, the S&P 500 MOSI chart or graph. If possible, can you please post a link of the chart so that I can save it in my default list for future use? Thank you.

 

[Firedog]

MJR,

Although I have the Extra plan from Stockcharts, I have had a rough time trying to create for my use, the S&P 500 MOSI chart or graph. If possible, can you please post a link of the chart so that I can save it in my default list for future use? Thank you.

Airlift,

You can find one in the DP chartgallery that you can open and then manipulate.

 

[airlift]

Updated graph of the S&P 500 MOSI. We have a confirmed sell signal, however slight. More caution flags going up...


View attachment 32693

MRJ,

The tenacious and unabated resiliency of this market has me struggling in a sea of confusion. This is almost incredible. Many of us are in cash or have IFTd to the F or G Funds. Let's hope we get some definition by the tomorrow. Good Luck to all!

 

[JTH]

MJR,

Although I have the Extra plan from Stockcharts, I have had a rough time trying to create for my use, the S&P 500 MOSI chart or graph. If possible, can you please post a link of the chart so that I can save it in my default list for future use? Thank you.

That's sort of like asking if you can borrow someone's underwear...

 

[MrJohnRoss]

MRJ,

The tenacious and unabated resiliency of this market has me struggling in a sea of confusion. This is almost incredible. Many of us are in cash or have IFTd to the F or G Funds. Let's hope we get some definition by the tomorrow. Good Luck to all!

No need to be confused. The worst that can happen is you might make a little less money in G or F. We're always playing the odds, it's never a guarantee.

Right now, from what I'm seeing, the odds of a downturn in the market are higher than the odds that it keeps climbing. I've been wrong before, but I'm just reading (and interpreting) the technical indicators.

As always, you should do whatever YOU think is the right move for your particular circumstances. I post my moves here simply for educational and entertainment purposes.

Good luck.

 

[MrJohnRoss]

Incredible strength in the dollar, which is crushing commodities. Gold, silver, miners, oil... you name it, are down strongly today. I would not want to be in the I Fund today.

Bonds are also tanking, as yields are spiking. This is causing the interest rate sensitive Utilites to drop hard.

You have to walk this investment path carefully, because there are mine fields all over the place.

I did pick up some SPXU (3X Inverse S&P) @35.06 on Wed as a short term (higher risk) downside play. Not expecting to hold it long, probably just a few days.

Wish I hadn't sold my BIB, as it gapped higher the day after I sold it. Just one of those things that happen from time to time. Unexpected good news came in out of nowhere. Ah well, I made a nice gain, so I shouldn't complain. <== Hey, that rhymes! :nuts:

 

[Mcqlives]

I did pick up some SPXU (3X Inverse S&P) @35.06 on Wed as a short term (higher risk) downside play. Not expecting to hold it long, probably just a few days.

You going to hold that over the weekend? 36.60ish looks like make or break area and it's at 36.27 now...

If you do hold are you are forecasting the 50 dma on the SnP to break?

Nice trade!

 

[MrJohnRoss]

... let's move on to more important things...

Was totally not expecting a drop of -278 points today. My SPXU could have just as easily blown up in my face and gone the other way. The prudent thing to have done would have been to sell for a nice two day gain, but by the time I got a chance, the markets had closed.

The indicators are still very negative, so I'm not too concerned. Wouldn't be surprised if we got a short term oversold bounce on Monday, but my guess is there's more downside action to go. Momentum is pretty strong to the downside now, so we'll need to bottom, and then possibly re-test the bottom. As Mcglives noted, the 50 DMA is not far below, so that would be the first test. If that fails, the 200 DMA is near 2000, which is also a logical support level, especially since we've bounced off that area four times in Dec/Jan.




The only thing that makes me go "hmmmm", is thinking that the Fed is going to raise interest rates. Really? The economy is that good that they need to put the brakes on? I just don't see that happening. Most countries around the globe are trying to fight deflation to the point of negative interest rates. I think it would be a huge mistake, but that's just my humble opinion.