MJR That was a good read. So tell me wise one you knowing what was said and how everything is lead from one action which causes a reaction which causes another action and on and on..... How can we take that and make a good positive play going forward? I know if you knew that you would be a rich man. I know someone on this MB with more market sense than me has figured this out. Come on folks give up the golden answer heehee. Happy new year to all
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MrJohnRoss' Account Talk
- Thread starter MrJohnRoss
- Start date
MrJohnRoss
Well-known member
Seems that a lot of us have been concerned about this very scenario for a long time. It hasn't come to fruition... yet. The million dollar question is "when", not if.
I think the markets will let us know when it's time to head to the sidelines. We just gotta pay attention to the signals.
MrJohnRoss
Well-known member
kave
Member
MJR,
I noticed the was a Feb 2014 article and based on the parallels the crash would have been exhibited in April 2014. I would imagine that if we compared the pre-2008 market to the 1929 market crash the parallels would be similar as well.
Besides the author is from Chapel Hill, NC! As for me, I don't take stock in much coming out of that place
!!
MrJohnRoss
Well-known member
MJR,
I noticed the was a Feb 2014 article and based on the parallels the crash would have been exhibited in April 2014. I would imagine that if we compared the pre-2008 market to the 1929 market crash the parallels would be similar as well.
Besides the author is from Chapel Hill, NC! As for me, I don't take stock in much coming out of that place
Well, that's embarrassing. MarketWatch had it as one of their top stories, and I posted it like it was sumfin new. Thought it looked familiar. SMDH.
MrJohnRoss
Well-known member
Interesting stats:
When the DJIA is negative from the Friday after Thanksgiving to the end of the year, how does that bode for the following year?
This year, the Dow was down a small fraction during that time span, -0.03%. Since 1987, there have only been six other instances when the Dow was negative from the Friday after Thanksgiving to year-end.
The average annual return the following year was +21.64%.
Let's hope 2015 is just as "average".
When the DJIA is negative from the Friday after Thanksgiving to the end of the year, how does that bode for the following year?
This year, the Dow was down a small fraction during that time span, -0.03%. Since 1987, there have only been six other instances when the Dow was negative from the Friday after Thanksgiving to year-end.
The average annual return the following year was +21.64%.
Let's hope 2015 is just as "average".
I may have missed this if it was discussed already, and posted this somewhere else a few days ago, but to add to that...
[h=1]2015 bullish as ‘years ending in 5’ pattern takes shape[/h] Average gain during years that end in 5... +28.3%.
[h=1]2015 bullish as ‘years ending in 5’ pattern takes shape[/h] Average gain during years that end in 5... +28.3%.
I've been listening to Cashin and I hope to Cash In on this HI FIVE Year!
Goos luck to all!
pmaloney,
where re do you find the Cashin reports? CNBC? Does he have a written column or daily clips? Tia.
99percent
Member
mmm..hmmmm. yep...okay...
MrJohnRoss
Well-known member
Yupper, historically, it's lining up to be a very good year. Hopefully the high expectations won't jinx it.
:blink:
MrJohnRoss
Well-known member
Ah, what the hell, here's one more stat for you all...
For pre-presidential election years, (like 2015), there hasn't been a down year in 76 years, since 1939. It's the best year of the four year cycle.
Average annual gains: Dow +16.0%, S&P 500 +16.3%, and Nasdaq +30.9%.
Add in the year ending in 5 stats, and we have a possible barn-burner of a year stacking up.
For pre-presidential election years, (like 2015), there hasn't been a down year in 76 years, since 1939. It's the best year of the four year cycle.
Average annual gains: Dow +16.0%, S&P 500 +16.3%, and Nasdaq +30.9%.
Add in the year ending in 5 stats, and we have a possible barn-burner of a year stacking up.
pmaloney
Member
I usually see him on CNBC in the morning and often in the afternoon. You can also catch him on CNBC Videos like Cashin says: Santa disappoints
MrJohnRoss
Well-known member
Historically, here are the odds of Monday, Jan 5th having a positive close:
DJIA: 67%
S&P500: 62%
Nasdaq: 62%
R1K: 60%
R2K: 63%
Because the S&P rises more than 60% of the time on this date, it is considered an especially "Bullish" day.
Also, the second trading day of the year has produced a positive close 14 of the last 21 years for the Dow.
This is also considered the last day of the "Santa Claus Rally", so stand in line politely to collect your presents. ($$$)
DJIA: 67%
S&P500: 62%
Nasdaq: 62%
R1K: 60%
R2K: 63%
Because the S&P rises more than 60% of the time on this date, it is considered an especially "Bullish" day.
Also, the second trading day of the year has produced a positive close 14 of the last 21 years for the Dow.
This is also considered the last day of the "Santa Claus Rally", so stand in line politely to collect your presents. ($$$)
Khotso
Active member
Some interesting stats in your last couple posts John. I'm wondering and if you don't mind sharing, where do you find this stuff?
MrJohnRoss
Well-known member
Bah Humbug! Looks like this year will be one of the 1/3 of the time when we close negative on this date.
All you naughty boys and girls only get a lump of coal in your stockings.
Why, none other than my handy dandy Stock Traders Alamanac of course.
MrJohnRoss
Well-known member
Thought of moving to the sidelines before the deadline, but I'm thinking we may be close to an exhaustion low, and a rebound is nigh.
With my luck, as soon as I'd move to G, the market would scream higher the very next day.
Of course, with trading day 1 and 2 for January looking bleak, the first five days theory looks like it could spell trouble for the month, and (possibly) for the year.
Uh oh. :blink:
With my luck, as soon as I'd move to G, the market would scream higher the very next day.
Of course, with trading day 1 and 2 for January looking bleak, the first five days theory looks like it could spell trouble for the month, and (possibly) for the year.
Uh oh.
:blink:
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