MrJohnRoss' Account Talk

[MrJohnRoss]

Thanks! It will be interesting to see what happens. Are you thinking of going to safety or pressing forward?

The charts don't look like we're in any kind of topping process, so I may stay put. A little short term pullback may be in order. Tomorrow is historically a bearish day.

Saw that felixthecat went to F yesterday. Maybe he has a crystal ball. Uptrend and FireGal may get jumped!

 

[MrJohnRoss]

Thanks, MJR! http://www.tsptalk.com/mb/member-milestones/21729-mrjohnross-now-has-2500-posts.html

Thanks. Maybe I should change my name to Blabbermouth.

Actually Tom, we should be thanking you for making this platform. Job well done.

 

[MrJohnRoss]

Just got this in my email inbox...

"Dear Friend, Last week, stocks put in a classic top formation.

We have the perfect set up for a market bloodbath.
And when it hits, Private Wealth Advisory
subscribers will lock in double, if not
TRIPLE digit winners...

Just as we did in 2008.

Join us... today for just $1.
Click Here Now!
Phoenix Capital Research"...

So there you have it folks, we're in for a bloodbath. :worried:

 

[pmaloney]

I liked your earlier thoughts better. I expect a small pullback but I also remember the bloody nose I got last January.

I'm going to hang in and hopefully tomorrow won't be too bad and will turn around if today ends negative.

Thanks for your posts!

 

[Cactus]

That email sounded like typical end-of-year fear mongering to drum up more business for 2015. I think I'll just stay invested into the new year.

 

[pmaloney]

Yup!

 

[Valkyrie]

I liked your earlier thoughts better. I expect a small pullback but I also remember the bloody nose I got last January.

I'm going to hang in and hopefully tomorrow won't be too bad and will turn around if today ends negative.

Thanks for your posts!

a call to take profits. I will be taking profits tomorrow and go into the new yr with 2 moves. locking in 5% is always good.
Growth Stock Wire | Stock Market Analysis, Market News & Stock Picks

"The stock market has done exactly what we wanted it to do over the past two
weeks. We were looking for a rally of 5% or so going into the end of the year.
That's what we got.

There might still be a little more upside ahead. But the NYMO and the VIX
are hinting that we've already seen most of the gains this rally is going to
show us. Holding out for more gains at this point means we risk giving some back
in a stock market reversal.

So traders ought to be taking profits now.

Best regards and good trading,

Jeff Clark"

 

[pmaloney]

Good points. It was a good rally and I know we are heading to an overbought condition. I would hate to be slaughtered but then again I would hate to sell out tomorrow on a potential second down day and then miss out on a pop up at the beginning of the year. Best of luck and thanks for the advise.

 

[MrJohnRoss]

Tomorrow is the last trading day of the year. Historically, here's the odds of Dec 31st having an up day:

DJIA: 43%
S&P500: 33%
Nasdaq: 48%

Tomorrow is considered a "Bearish" day. :blink:

 

[MrJohnRoss]

Jeez, don't look now, but the Utilities have gone through the roof.

View attachment 31786

Here's a follow up chart to the Utilities. I'm shocked. :toung:

 

[felixthecat]

Tomorrow is the last trading day of the year. Historically, here's the odds of Dec 31st having an up day:

DJIA: 43%
S&P500: 33%
Nasdaq: 48%

Tomorrow is considered a "Bearish" day. :blink:

Thanks for the historic patterns. Very useful information.

 

[MrJohnRoss]

Thanks for the historic patterns. Very useful information.

You're welcome sir. Not that you need any of my info. Looks like you're doing quite well on your own. Congratulations on another barn-burner of a year. Wanna sell me your crystal ball?

 

[justjeff]

Mr. John Ross,

I would like to personally say Thank You for another great year. I have been following your forum for a few years now and your analysis of the market has been very rewarding for me to read and follow and I look forward to checking every day to see if you have posted anything for your followers. You are a true gentleman and the type of guy that everyone wishes they had in their office to gain additional knowledge around the lunch table regarding the markets along with world events that seems to drive it. I wish you a healthy and prosperous 2015.

 

[MrJohnRoss]

Mr. John Ross,

I would like to personally say Thank You for another great year. I have been following your forum for a few years now and your analysis of the market has been very rewarding for me to read and follow and I look forward to checking every day to see if you have posted anything for your followers. You are a true gentleman and the type of guy that everyone wishes they had in their office to gain additional knowledge around the lunch table regarding the markets along with world events that seems to drive it. I wish you a healthy and prosperous 2015.

That's very nice of you Jeff. Glad to be of service for a few people here. God bless, and have a happy and healthy new year.

 

[MrJohnRoss]

Tomorrow is the last trading day of the year. Historically, here's the odds of Dec 31st having an up day:

DJIA: 43%
S&P500: 33%
Nasdaq: 48%

Tomorrow is considered a "Bearish" day. :blink:

They weren't kidding, were they?

I don't think we're going to go down much further. Possibly as low as a test of the 50 SMA, and I'd be surprised if it went that far.

 

[pmaloney]

I hope you are as right now as you were the first time.

 

[MrJohnRoss]

Scenes From a (Suddenly) Nude Beach

"...Consumers refuse to go more deeply into debt to buy non-necessities, even when money is nearly free. Faced with lower demand and poor cash flow from the past decade's overbuilding, China has tapped the brakes on its infrastructure build-out. The US is trying to stop monetizing its debt, which has sent the dollar through the roof on foreign exchange markets, thus making life even harder for about half the world's population. As a result of the above, demand for basic materials is returning to normal levels, which, in the face of inflated supply, is tanking prices across the commodity complex.
In other words the tide has gone out, leaving a whole beach full of naked (and unfortunately not very attractive) bodies..."

Well worth the read.

 

[MrJohnRoss]

Here's a chart looking back at last year's IFT's. It's a simplified version of being "in or out" of the market. Some of the moves were to the C Fund, but most were to the S Fund, so this is still illustrative in one graph.

Obviously not all of my moves were successful, and many were ill timed. The important thing at this point is to look back on history, learn from it, and try not to repeat past mistakes. I did manage to make a respectable showing on the AT (17.69%), and beat the C Fund - S&P500 (13.78%), which is all I could have asked for.




Good luck to us in 2015!

 

[MrJohnRoss]

Historical odds for Jan 2nd:

Small Caps typically punished on the first trading day of the year. R2K down 15 of last 25 yrs, but up 5 of the last 6 yrs.

Historical odds of a positive close:

DJIA: 71%
S&P500: 48%
Nasdaq: 67%

 

[MrJohnRoss]

January's First Five Days:

The first five trading days typically set the tone for January, which sets the tone for the year. It'll be important to see how the next five trading days perform.

The last 41 positive First Five Days were followed by full year gains 85% of the time. The average annual gain was 14.0%.

The last 23 negative First Five Days were followed by 12 up years and 11 down years. The average annual gain was only 0.2%.

In pre-presidential election years, (like 2015), the market followed the First Five Days 12 times out of 16, or 75% of the time.

It will be interesting to see how these five days perform, how the month of January performs, and if the market follows historical norms.