MrJohnRoss' Account Talk

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I live in CA so there really is no point in voting. Obama will win the state and judges decide the laws here. I'm not just talking about the overturning of Prop 8, its quite frequent that judges overturn propositions, it seems.
 
Thanks, Tom. Great explanation, and it makes perfect sense. I always thought there were lots of gears spinning behind the scenes here. Your hard thorough work is why your site is always growing in popularity.
 
MrBowl said:
I live in CA so there really is no point in voting. Obama will win the state and judges decide the laws here. I'm not just talking about the overturning of Prop 8, its quite frequent that judges overturn propositions, it seems.
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I know what you're saying MrBowl, but you gotta vote, even if it's just to speak your own mind. CA may always go left, but I've never missed a vote yet, and hope I never will. I want my vote counted regardless, and I hope you do to.
 
Especially if there is a recount and they do it by hand. You know which way it will end but at least you get the satisfaction of knowing you made it a little bit harder.:D
 
I started thinking about getting out a couple of days ago. Now I wish I would have. That Greek crap comes up at the wrong time all the time. Why don't they just default and get it over with - the are going to anyway.
 
Sold my remaining TNA this morning @ $59.99. Purchased on Jan 10 @ $49.36. That equates to a 21.5% gain in a little over a month.

We'll have to see how this day shapes up, but there is a possiblilty that we could see a sell signal by the end of the day.
 
MrJohnRoss said:
Sold my remaining TNA this morning @ $59.99. Purchased on Jan 10 @ $49.36. That equates to a 21.5% gain in a little over a month.

We'll have to see how this day shapes up, but there is a possiblilty that we could see a sell signal by the end of the day.
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I have no idea what my sytem will give until after the close. I hope the dip buyers show up soon.
 
jkenjohnson said:
I have no idea what my sytem will give until after the close. I hope the dip buyers show up soon.
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Hopefully we do not see a large rush of panic sellers. I don't expect we will close on the positive side today but somewhere between a minus .50 to 1% would bring out the sideliners for next week.
 
bmneveu said:
Wow, great play. What are you thinking for your next move?
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berline said:
Congrats... what do you mean by "We could see a sell signal"? Buying TZA?
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I think a move to TZA would be highly doubtful. I'm really not expecting a big selloff, but let's let the dust settle before we decide. Looks like we're gonna take a hit on the S Fund today, but I'm not selling yet. If anyone wants to move to cash, I wouldn't blame them, but I'm going to stick with my system. It's served me well.
 
MrJohnRoss said:
I think a move to TZA would be highly doubtful. I'm really not expecting a big selloff, but let's let the dust settle before we decide. Looks like we're gonna take a hit on the S Fund today, but I'm not selling yet. If anyone wants to move to cash, I wouldn't blame them, but I'm going to stick with my system. It's served me well.
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That is a good point. Mine has worked well too. I just start getting antsy when we gap down like that. I actually bought some TNA @ 59.00/share a little while ago.
 
jkenjohnson said:
Odds are we will see a 2.8% increase within the next month, looking at it on a monthly basis (68% of the time).
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Only 2.8%??? Wow, that's pretty small! That would put us at only 21.05. Seems like 2.8% would just be normal noise in the system, not anything dramatic.
 
MrJohnRoss said:
Only 2.8%??? Wow, that's pretty small! That would put us at only 21.05. Seems like 2.8% would just be normal noise in the system, not anything dramatic.
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Agreed. It's based on volatility being proportional to the square root of time. So if you take the Vix of 9.93 and divide it by the square root of 12 (since there are twelve months in a year), you get 9.93 divided by 3.46 which equals 2.8% for one month. And based on statiscal analyses, this theory is correct 68% of the time. So as the Vix rises, you get a chance at a better return, but you also get wilder swings. Options traders love a high Vix number because the potential returns are so much higher. I am assuming that you are not familiar with this theory. If you are, I apologize. I don't want to insult anyone's intelligence or come across as an expert - BECAUSE I AM FAR FROM IT.
 
jkenjohnson said:
Agreed. It's based on volatility being proportional to the square root of time. So if you take the Vix of 9.93 and divide it by the square root of 12 (since there are twelve months in a year), you get 9.93 divided by 3.46 which equals 2.8% for one month. And based on statiscal analyses, this theory is correct 68% of the time. So as the Vix rises, you get a chance at a better return, but you also get wilder swings.
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I don't know that that theory would work as it doesn't take human nature or emotions into account; which VIX is succeptible to... just saying...
 
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