MrJohnRoss' Account Talk

[MrJohnRoss]

Just got a chance to check on the markets. Holy crap! Did the bull just get executed? Short term indicators say we're deeply oversold, so I would expect a bounce within the next trading day.

 

[MrJohnRoss]

Meanwhile, JNUG is making higher highs and higher lows each day. Hmmm, I wonder what that means...?

Heh.

 

[Cactus]

Just got a chance to check on the markets. Holy crap! Did the bull just get executed? Short term indicators say we're deeply oversold, so I would expect a bounce within the next trading day.

Nah, it was just me getting back in the market. I'm always in for these 3% drops but not the recovery. Sorry, but I don't plan on exiting any time soon so it could take a while to come back.

 

[tctang75]

I just took my Miners, et al exit, expecting more downside, but I'm not planning to DUST. Just need a break. Good luck to all who continue to ride gold long!

 

[MrJohnRoss]

Here's my take on the short term view of the S&P. We've been in a trading range (see box) for over a month now. The markets broke out of the box to the upside this week, but chickened out like a skeeredy cat on Friday. However, the trend of the 50, 20, and 5 DMA are up, and we continue to make higher lows. My opinion is that we'll break out of this box to the upside.

The market likes to fake out as many people as possible, hence the down move. Wouldn't be surprised to see a strong move higher out of the box, possibly as early as this week. I do have a concern that the higher highs are divergent with the lower highs on the MACD (PPO). I'm going to stick it out unless the box is broken to the downside in convincing fashion.

Good luck!

 

[JTH]

Here's my take on the short term view of the S&P. We've been in a trading range (see box) for over a month now. The markets broke out of the box to the upside this week, but chickened out like a skeeredy cat on Friday. However, the trend of the 50, 20, and 5 DMA are up, and we continue to make higher lows. My opinion is that we'll break out of this box to the upside.

The market likes to fake out as many people as possible, hence the down move. Wouldn't be surprised to see a strong move higher out of the box, possibly as early as this week. I do have a concern that the higher highs are divergent with the lower highs on the MACD (PPO). I'm going to stick it out unless the box is broken to the downside in convincing fashion.

Interesting perspective, I can't disagree with it or confirm it, it's just one of those situations where I'll wait for Monday to get a feel for it. I would like to add that volume on SPY was more substantial than SPX, with an 11-bar high.

 

[bmneveu]

Interesting perspective, I can't disagree with it or confirm it, it's just one of those situations where I'll wait for Monday to get a feel for it. I would like to add that volume on SPY was more substantial than SPX, with an 11-bar high.

I believe Tom noted the huge spike in volume in his weekly wrap up.

 

[airlift]

I believe Tom noted the huge spike in volume in his weekly wrap up.

JTH,

How does volume affect the outcome of Mr.Ross's hypothetical expectation? I hope I asked an intelligible question... Tia.

 

[JTH]

Interesting perspective, I can't disagree with it or confirm it, it's just one of those situations where I'll wait for Monday to get a feel for it. I would like to add that volume on SPY was more substantial than SPX, with an 11-bar high.

JTH,

How does volume affect the outcome of Mr.Ross's hypothetical expectation? I hope I asked an intelligible question... Tia.

My comment wasn't meant to sway Mr. JR's statement, I was just making the observation that volume on the S&P 500 was somewhat misleading or subdued, when compared to the SPY ETF. This volume increase alludes to more conviction behind the price move, than what the S&P 500 was showing.

 

[MrJohnRoss]

Wish I could post a graph, but I can't from work. If you get a chance, take a look at the 1 hr chart of the S&P. Pretty impressive to see the line of 11 straight red candles going down down down. Like someone popped a baloon. Not a relief rally anywhere.

Ah, but take a look at the RSI. Typically, an oversold level is anywhere under 30. Currently, we're all the way down to 20, so we're short term very oversold. This would not be a good place to bail, IMHO.

Looking at the daily chart, the Stoch is heading down fast, so my guess is momentum is going to carry this market down for a while, but I would expect a relief rally in short order, probably tomorrow. I'm also guessing that we've got more downside to go, so I may have to burn my final IFT to sell the rally. Every day brings a new perspective, so we'll see how it looks then.

Good luck!

 

[MrJohnRoss]

There it is, the first white candle on the 1 hr chart. Next candle spiked higher before heading lower. Looks like a short term bottom may be in place. Tomorrow should provide a temporary bounce, IMHO.

 

[weatherweenie]

MrJohnRoss,

Are you still holding SGMS? I have been watching it since just before they most recently announced earnings.

Would you be buying more here, or wait to see if the 10.50 level holds?

Thanks,

WW

 

[MrJohnRoss]

Stocks are on sale. A month ago, NFLX was priced at 458. Today you can buy it for 344 *cue the ad: a savings of 25%!* The same can be said for many others. You can use technical analysis to try to pinpoint the bottom, or you can just start buying chunks of these great deals for long term profits.

 

[Birchtree]

I don't own any momo stocks and never will - they may now be out of favor for the next 12 months or longer. These things seem to run in cycles and there is a rotation happening with momo stocks.

 

[MrJohnRoss]

MrJohnRoss,

Are you still holding SGMS? I have been watching it since just before they most recently announced earnings.

Would you be buying more here, or wait to see if the 10.50 level holds?

Thanks,

WW

I ignored my system when it said sell at 15.50, so I'm still in. It's not a large position, so I'm not too concerned, but I still don't like the fact that I'm not in the money. We're very likely in the stages of a bottoming pattern. No one knows the exact bottom, but it sure looks like it's due for a bounce in the very near future.

 

[MrJohnRoss]

I don't own any momo stocks and never will - they may now be out of favor for the next 12 months or longer. These things seem to run in cycles and there is a rotation happening with momo stocks.

I like the whole NFLX business. I haven't studied one word of the fundamentals, but it must be a cash cow, just like GOOGL. NFLX sells ones and zeros over the internet for $7.99 a month to millions of people. Then the people get hooked... for life. Momo or no momo, it seems like that would be a pretty hefty business model, don't you think?

 

[Birchtree]

I remember well the days in 2000 when everyone was making gains in internet technology momo - I was not. I stayed with the boring and dull stuff and survived that crash in fine shape. Many cycles have a tendency to repeat so for now there will be no momo for me. I'm a contrarian investor so I'll keep dollar cost averaging into banks and other financials. Now if some of these momo stocks start doing some splits then I might bite But for now I've got plenty other places to lose money.

 

[JTH]

I remember well the days in 2000 when everyone was making gains in internet technology momo - I was not. I stayed with the boring and dull stuff and survived that crash in fine shape. Many cycles have a tendency to repeat so for now there will be no momo for me. I'm a contrarian investor so I'll keep dollar cost averaging into banks and other financials. Now if some of these momo stocks start doing some splits then I might bite But for now I've got plenty other places to lose money.

I wonder what the market's expectations are for earnings, if we'll meet those expectations and/or if it's already priced in...

 

[Birchtree]

If earnings are not already priced in and they exceed expectations the bull will rampage - afterall it's a bull market. I just wish the Fed would taper their taper and hold at +$55B for several more months.

 

[JTH]

I just wish the Fed would taper their taper and hold at +$55B for several more months.

Not me, I wish they'd stop, let the markets tank & equalize to their true value, then let me scoop up the bargains