Are the markets going to go off a cliff on Monday? I predict... no. Here's the reasons why I believe we'll be higher by this time next week:
1. VIX - If the markets were going to go off a cliff, the VIX would be moving much higher. Instead, the VIX ended the day at 14.00, DOWN -0.28%. That tells me that big money has no fear of loss.
2. UUP - A financial crisis that could rock the markets usually means a flight to safety, and the dollar would skyrocket. Instead the dollar index (UUP) gapped down on the day. No financial crisis for the dollar.
3. $TNX - A financial scare would, again, send a huge tide of money away from stocks, and into bonds, which would in turn cause interest rates to plummet. Instead, the 10-year treasury held firm, and the yield was up fractionally on the day at 2.658%.
4. $NYAD, $NAAD - The advance/decline line for both the NYSE and the Nasdaq are both moving higher. In fact, the NYAD is at an all time high. Nope, no worries here.
5. INDU, SPX, COMPQ, TRAN, etc. would have all ended the day with a strong down move. Yes, we had a bit of a mid to late-day sell off, but the 30 minute charts show a strong recovery in the final half hour. Big money stepped in after we reached short term over-sold levels. If there was financial panic, the big money would have been a tidal wave out the door first.
No, I'm not a perma-bull. The markets will eventually go down. I just don't think now is the time. Of course, all of this is based on simple logic, and we all know that the world is not always a logical place. The markets can be a baffling puzzle at times, and there may be events that no one can see coming. I'm just going to play the odds here and say that we're most likely going to grind higher for a bit longer. We'll find out if my logical prognostication comes true next week.
Good luck to us!