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MrJohnRoss' Account Talk
- Thread starter MrJohnRoss
- Start date
MrJohnRoss
Well-known member
Watching this accelerate to the downside, and my mind is saying sell, but my long term thinking says hold. See how internal psychology is so hard to deal with?
RealMoneyIssues
Well-known member
Trailing Stop???
I have been sitting in the G fund all month. I was one of those that was in the G Fund most of last year and then after joining the forum and talking to a few folks decided to put 35% of my money in the market in November. I actually was doing pretty well and weathered the ups and downs without bailing (a problem I have had in the past). Then in January the correction talk and watched too many experts saying the 20% correction was here and I bailed to the G fund at the end of January (lost money). A few days after that the market really rebounded and hasn't looked back. I want to get back in, but it seems like it is going up too high too fast without a real good reason. I am waiting for a little pullback (I hope) and then I will jump in again. I'm sick of buying high and selling low.
MrJohnRoss
Well-known member
Boomer, if you're a relative newcomer to the markets, and don't understand T.A. (Technical Analysis), you might want to just go full in on the next pullback to the 50 day moving average. Chief Heisenberg would suggest buying in and never selling, but I'm a firm believer in not staying invested in a major market correction. There is no way I'm going to lose 40-50% on the next bear mauling. Instead, there are ways to side-step those moves and even profit from them.
Keep reading and learning. It takes time and effort, but it will be well worth it.
Good luck!
Keep reading and learning. It takes time and effort, but it will be well worth it.
Good luck!
MrJohnRoss
Well-known member
No sir, every time I've used a stop, it has gotten me out at exactly the wrong time. I prefer to "keep my eyes on the road and my hands upon the wheel..." ~ (The Doors).
MrJohnRoss
Well-known member
BIB is now deeply oversold on the short term charts. Expect a rebound here. Short term traders stepping in.... Next short term move is higher, but the intermediate wave is lower.
rktect1
Member
You need to stop doing that.
sniper
Active member
buy when everyone's afraid, sell when there's market euphoria. The herd panics so much everytime there's a pullback, but more often than not, it bounces right back. To buy low start buying in when everyone's too scared to get in.
Like the saying goes "The time to buy is when there's blood on the streets". Getting in at the very bottom isn't what's important, getting in at a good price is.
MrJohnRoss
Well-known member
The market sold off hard at the close, and the weekend is upon us. You know what that means, right?
Wouldn't be surprised to see a big international upsetting news event (guess who) shake the world markets come Monday morning.
Be on your toes, people.
System results:
System stays long DUST, up +0.92% today. Metals look to be pulling back a bit here after their big run-up. A little rest and consolidation is in the cards.
System stays long URTY, down -1.12% today, but not enough to trigger a sell. That may change on Monday, who knows. Dreamboat Annie may have made a good choice to get out early this morning. Hmmmm, maybe she has a crystal ball.
C Fund was up a bit, S Fund down a bit, and the I Fund will likely get a boost from the falling dollar. System says to stay long S, so we'll see what the Ide's of March bring to the party on Monday.
Have a great weekend!
Wouldn't be surprised to see a big international upsetting news event (guess who) shake the world markets come Monday morning.
Be on your toes, people.
System results:
System stays long DUST, up +0.92% today. Metals look to be pulling back a bit here after their big run-up. A little rest and consolidation is in the cards.
System stays long URTY, down -1.12% today, but not enough to trigger a sell. That may change on Monday, who knows. Dreamboat Annie may have made a good choice to get out early this morning. Hmmmm, maybe she has a crystal ball.
C Fund was up a bit, S Fund down a bit, and the I Fund will likely get a boost from the falling dollar. System says to stay long S, so we'll see what the Ide's of March bring to the party on Monday.
Have a great weekend!
MrJohnRoss
Well-known member
Are the markets going to go off a cliff on Monday? I predict... no. Here's the reasons why I believe we'll be higher by this time next week:
1. VIX - If the markets were going to go off a cliff, the VIX would be moving much higher. Instead, the VIX ended the day at 14.00, DOWN -0.28%. That tells me that big money has no fear of loss.
2. UUP - A financial crisis that could rock the markets usually means a flight to safety, and the dollar would skyrocket. Instead the dollar index (UUP) gapped down on the day. No financial crisis for the dollar.
3. $TNX - A financial scare would, again, send a huge tide of money away from stocks, and into bonds, which would in turn cause interest rates to plummet. Instead, the 10-year treasury held firm, and the yield was up fractionally on the day at 2.658%.
4. $NYAD, $NAAD - The advance/decline line for both the NYSE and the Nasdaq are both moving higher. In fact, the NYAD is at an all time high. Nope, no worries here.
5. INDU, SPX, COMPQ, TRAN, etc. would have all ended the day with a strong down move. Yes, we had a bit of a mid to late-day sell off, but the 30 minute charts show a strong recovery in the final half hour. Big money stepped in after we reached short term over-sold levels. If there was financial panic, the big money would have been a tidal wave out the door first.
No, I'm not a perma-bull. The markets will eventually go down. I just don't think now is the time. Of course, all of this is based on simple logic, and we all know that the world is not always a logical place. The markets can be a baffling puzzle at times, and there may be events that no one can see coming. I'm just going to play the odds here and say that we're most likely going to grind higher for a bit longer. We'll find out if my logical prognostication comes true next week.
Good luck to us!
1. VIX - If the markets were going to go off a cliff, the VIX would be moving much higher. Instead, the VIX ended the day at 14.00, DOWN -0.28%. That tells me that big money has no fear of loss.
2. UUP - A financial crisis that could rock the markets usually means a flight to safety, and the dollar would skyrocket. Instead the dollar index (UUP) gapped down on the day. No financial crisis for the dollar.
3. $TNX - A financial scare would, again, send a huge tide of money away from stocks, and into bonds, which would in turn cause interest rates to plummet. Instead, the 10-year treasury held firm, and the yield was up fractionally on the day at 2.658%.
4. $NYAD, $NAAD - The advance/decline line for both the NYSE and the Nasdaq are both moving higher. In fact, the NYAD is at an all time high. Nope, no worries here.
5. INDU, SPX, COMPQ, TRAN, etc. would have all ended the day with a strong down move. Yes, we had a bit of a mid to late-day sell off, but the 30 minute charts show a strong recovery in the final half hour. Big money stepped in after we reached short term over-sold levels. If there was financial panic, the big money would have been a tidal wave out the door first.
No, I'm not a perma-bull. The markets will eventually go down. I just don't think now is the time. Of course, all of this is based on simple logic, and we all know that the world is not always a logical place. The markets can be a baffling puzzle at times, and there may be events that no one can see coming. I'm just going to play the odds here and say that we're most likely going to grind higher for a bit longer. We'll find out if my logical prognostication comes true next week.
Good luck to us!
MaStA
Member
I'm not concerned about the technicals. I'm concerned about Putin. The market plummeted when the news broke yesterday and I just read that he received permission from parliament to use their military in Ukraine. From what I read yesterday the market reacted harshly to it and it was rumors at the time so the stock market began recovering. It doesn't seem to be rumors anymore...
What do you think?
RealMoneyIssues
Well-known member
All of those are indicators of a market that has already dropped significantly. If you see all of that, you should probably sell
ravensfan
Well-known member
I don't know Mr. John Ross. I think the situation in the Ukraine may just be the catalyst to drive the markets down and provide that buying opportunity so many of us have been waiting for.
MrJohnRoss
Well-known member
Perhaps you're right, but the markets are telling us otherwise. Here's another viewpoint: How Russia Will Impact the Market - Business Insider
"With military tensions flaring on the border between Ukraine and Russia, investors are curious about what this all means for markets. News out of the region over the weekend has not been encouraging, and it's certainly not likely to be taken positively at the open on Monday by Russian stocks, bonds, and the ruble.
However, investors have largely already positioned for downside in Russia, for reasons unrelated to the latest headlines out of Ukraine.
Indeed, according to Bartosz Pawlowski, global head of emerging markets strategy at BNP Paribas, shorting the ruble has become one of the most popular trades since late January, when market participants realized seasonality effects — normally supportive of the ruble early in the year — were unlikely to give it much support in 2014.
"The ruble has been selling off for months now, regardless of the situation in Ukraine," says Pawlowski.
"Granted, the events there have accelerated the process, but nothing more."...
MaStA
Member
MrJohnRoss
Well-known member
I'm thinking just the opposite... Tomorrow may open down, and there may be some volatility this week, but the technicals are saying we should be fine. If all this blows over in a few days, the market may actually skyrocket.
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