MrJohnRoss' Account Talk

[MrJohnRoss]

Made a short term move to the F Fund for a few days. Mr. Market is curling down. Maybe this is the bottom, and it'll bounce right back on Monday, who knows for sure. But then again, maybe it's got a few more weeks of grinding lower. In any event, I'm going to temporarily step aside and follow my indicators. This kind of move bit me last year, but perhaps this time it really will be different. I'm going to follow my technical system, and leave "hope it goes back up" to others.

The Dow was down "only" -150 when I made the decision to move out of S yesterday. Had no idea it was going to fall so hard. Hate to sell on such a strong down day, but it is what it is.

Although I expect a snap back rally over the next day or two, I don't think this is the end of the intermediate term downward move. IMHO, we have some more shaking and quaking before we stabilize and head higher (hopefully). It will be important to watch the longer term trend lines and see if they hold. If they don't, it could spell trouble.

Here's one of the charts I watch, the weekly S&P. Sitting right at that upward trend line going back to Nov 2012. A break below could spell trouble.

 

[Birchtree]

I prefer we get it all done in a few days rather than the drip, drip, drip, technique. I wouldn't be surprised to see that trend line hold and if it does every technician will announce the glory days of the mega trend secular bull market remains intact.

 

[MrJohnRoss]

System results from yesterday:

NUGT remains a hold, down slightly -0.61%.

Obviously URTY/SRTY flipped early yesterday. URTY was down -7.42%.

It's been dangerous to bet against the market moving lower in this Fed pumped rally. Perhaps the taper is really going to make a difference this time. If so, it could be a rough year for equities.

 

[MrJohnRoss]

I prefer we get it all done in a few days rather than the drip, drip, drip, technique. I wouldn't be surprised to see that trend line hold and if it does every technician will announce the glory days of the mega trend secular bull market remains intact.

"IF" being the operative word.

 

[Birchtree]

I'm thinking that Janet will go slow to protect the emerging market currencies - there should be no rush to reduce the QE. What's a few more months of waiting to see how the jobs numbers and the economy are doing.

 

[RealMoneyIssues]

I'm thinking that Janet will go slow to protect the emerging market currencies - there should be no rush to reduce the QE. What's a few more months of waiting to see how the jobs numbers and the economy are doing.

Why would they have reduced QE if the economy wasn't doing good? Why wait? right?

 

[Birchtree]

Just the thought that consumers will be hindered by the price of natural gas may hold the Fed back a few months - they want to be down right sure they are on the right track. Going slowly doesn't hurt anything. If Janet holds at $75 billion that would be a surprise against consensus and bullish for the market - she may decide to hold for many months. And if that happens I hate to think where the Dow will rocket to.

 

[MrJohnRoss]

Worst case scenario: Market rebounds. Up +250 points tomorrow. Lures investors back in. Then another +150 point day just to be sure. Just as you get back in, down she goes -450 points...

 

[JTH]

Worst case scenario: Market rebounds. Up +250 points tomorrow. Lures investors back in. Then another +150 point day just to be sure. Just as you get back in, down she goes -450 points...

Maybe that's the best case scenario...

 

[amoeba]

Hmmm - is someone besides me looking around the globe? If the Nikkei is any indication, it isn't looking good for tomorrow - I say the best case scenario is the US equities drop by less than 2% Monday. A gain appears almost out of the question. Maybe tuesday.

Worse case - looking below 1,730 by weeks end.

 

[law87]

Hmmm - is someone besides me looking around the globe? If the Nikkei is any indication, it isn't looking good for tomorrow - I say the best case scenario is the US equities drop by less than 2% Monday. A gain appears almost out of the question. Maybe tuesday.

Worse case - looking below 1,730 by weeks end.

I believe asian market follow us and we follow European market. so think of it as they follow us from friday down day.

 

[MrJohnRoss]

Not surprised to see the metals and miners take a breather here. Looks like NUGT is going to flip to a short term sell, unless there is a reversal in the final hour.

 

[law87]

Going to go haalf-in dust

 

[MrJohnRoss]

System results:

NUGT/DUST flips to DUST. NUGT lost -9.40% today. Considering the buy price of 30.67 and today's end of day price of 34.11, the system would have produced a gain of +11.21% in just over two weeks. Not bad.

End of day buy price for DUST is 32.60.

SRTY remains a hold, up a nice +4.70% today.

 

[MrJohnRoss]

System results:

NUGT/DUST is on the verge of a flip, which is not entirely unexpected. DUST was down -5.71% today.

SRTY remains a hold, down -3.09%.

Picked up some shares of BIB, SFUN, and WX today. Looking for a rebound. May consider going back in tomorrow if we have another up day.

 

[sniper]

GL on the BIB, especially cause I'm still holding that

 

[MrJohnRoss]

GL on the BIB, especially cause I'm still holding that

Yeah, I held it before, and got stopped out. For a loss. SMDH. This is BIB, for cryin' out loud.

 

[k0nkuzh0n]

Worst case scenario: Market rebounds. Up +250 points tomorrow. Lures investors back in. Then another +150 point day just to be sure. Just as you get back in, down she goes -450 points...

Pretty close so far! at least if you start from mid day monday.

 

[MrJohnRoss]

Pretty close so far! at least if you start from mid day monday.

Yep!

 

[MrJohnRoss]

System switch at the open this morning:

System sells DUST @ $28.81 for a loss of -11.6%.

System buys NUGT @ $38.34.

Metals and miners continue their climb.

TSP signal still says to stay out of the market for now. Looks like bonds are getting a little pop today...