MrJohnRoss' Account Talk

[MrJohnRoss]

With the Dow down -190 points today, here's how the system performed:

System continues to hold NUGT. Up +8.04% on the day, and up +1.9% from buy point.

System continues to hold SRTY, up another +4.12% today.

Looks like bonds was the place to be in the TSP. AGG up +0.30, while C,S,I were down over -1.0% each.

AGQ (2X Silver) was up +2.11%, and GDXJ was up +4.28%. All in all, a very profitable day, which is a rarity on such a negative day.

 

[k0nkuzh0n]

System continues to hold NUGT. Up +8.04% on the day, and up +1.9% from buy point.

Wasn't the buy this morning??

 

[MaStA]

Wasn't the buy this morning??

NUGT was up a 9.04% today...

 

[law87]

Wasn't the buy this morning??

yes buy this morning and hold over night...

 

[MrJohnRoss]

Wasn't the buy this morning??

NUGT closed yesterday at 36.19. It gapped up this morning, opened at 37.88 and began moving higher. System saw the move higher, and initiated a buy at $38.34.

NUGT closed today at 39.10, for a total daily gain (from yesterday's close) of +8.04%, and a system gain (from buy point) of 1.98%.

 

[k0nkuzh0n]

ahh... NUGT was up 8.04%... sounded as if you were saying the system was up 8.04% for the day, and 1.98% for the current trade. Which obviously isn't possible given the trade was initiated this morning haha. Maybe it was just me but thought it was misleading.

 

[MrJohnRoss]

NUGT/DUST almost flipped again, as NUGT lost -6.6% today. Still a hold, but just barely.

SRTY flipped to URTY at the close. SRTY was down -4.04%. System buys URTY at 82.53.

As far as the TSP, it looks like the market may make at least a short term move higher from here. If the market moves higher again tomorrow morning, I may jump back in with my 2nd IFT for the month, as the indicators are looking positive.

 

[MrJohnRoss]

... and DOWN she goes...

 

[MrJohnRoss]

2 hour chart of NUGT. From what I'm seeing, we're in an advancing channel that's been in place since the beginning of the year. The short term oscillations are going to be hard to time, and could cause whip-saw losses. Traders who don't have the time (or the nerves) to watch the short term moves may want to just stay long the miners, hence my position in GDXJ. Good luck!

 

[MrJohnRoss]

This market sure is jumpy, and hard to get a read. These wild swings and big up and down moves may portray much higher volatility ahead. Wouldn't be surprised to see a major move (up or down) in the near future.

System remains holding NUGT, but again, it could go either way. It's right on the fence. Like I posted previously, the upward channel remains intact.

The move to URTY looks like a headfake rally. URTY lost -2.04%, and system switches back to SRTY at the close, $45.78.

SLV and GLD both had a rough week. SLV looks to be forming a double bottom.

GDXJ hit the overbought level of 70 on the RSI, and is now backing off and consolidating, perhaps to make the next move higher.

Keeping my TSP in bonds for now, but I'll be keeping my eyes on the lookout for evidence of an upturn in equities. With increased volatility, that's not going to be an easy job, due to the probability of whipsaws.

 

[MrJohnRoss]

"Consider: In the years since 1973 in which the S&P 500 rose during January, the index proceeded over the next 11 months to gain an average of 11.2%. That compares to an average February-through-December gain of just 0.2% in those years in which—like this year—the market fell during January.
"Compared to other market-timing indicators that are out there, this one appears to be one of the most accurate," says Michael Cooper, a finance professor at the University of Utah who has extensively studied the January indicator."

In other words, prepare for a flat to down year.


When the January Indicator Says "Sell" ~ The Wall Street Journal

 

[MrJohnRoss]

Weekly chart of the S&P shows that the uptrend line that's been in place since Nov 2012 has been broken. So where are some potential downside targets?

The most obvious support area is the Fibonnaci line near 1657. That's about a 7% drop from here, and about a 10% drop from the high, which sounds reasonable.

With February historically being a weak month, it would be good to get a minor correction out of the way, and allow for a possible move higher later this spring.

 

[MrJohnRoss]

Watching today's market is like watching yesterday's Superbowl. A complete rout.

GLD, SLV, AGG, and GDXJ are all holding up well. The inverse stock ETF's are making a killing. :nuts:

 

[law87]

Watching today's market is like watching yesterday's Superbowl. A complete rout.

GLD, SLV, AGG, and GDXJ are all holding up well. The inverse stock ETF's are making a killing. :nuts:

NUgt not following this gold bounce. I wonder if its a day late.

 

[MrJohnRoss]

NUgt not following this gold bounce. I wonder if its a day late.

NUGT's been relatively flat that last few days, but remains a hold. Up a fraction so far today. Miners don't always mirror the metals, but they're usually pretty close.

 

[MrJohnRoss]

[h=1]Marc Faber Warns "Insiders Are Selling Like Crazy... Short US Stocks, Buy Treasuries & Gold"[/h]

 

[MrJohnRoss]

No change to the NUGT/DUST system. System contines to hold NUGT, down -2.03% today.

No change to the URTY/SRTY system. System continues to hold SRTY, up +9.92% today.

Stocks were absolutely crushed today. Was hoping to see a short term bounce at the end of the day, to indicate a possible "oversold" condition. Just didn't materialize. Expect more downside in the near term.

 

[MrJohnRoss]

This is looking like a dead cat bounce, IMHO.

 

[OBXTrader]

DCB too IMO, but what do I know? I ejected from L Income to G Fund effective COB today. Minor losses this month, but a loss is a loss. Have one IFT for buy in later on. I would rather live to fight another day.

This is looking like a dead cat bounce, IMHO.

 

[MrJohnRoss]

Well, that was a rather weak rally, wasn't it? I'll stay in F Fund, for now.

Perhaps we head higher again tomorrow, but I'm thinking it's on shaky legs at this point.

NUGT/DUST is looking rather flat. It might be a good time to get out and let the chopping chew someone else up. System stays with NUGT, but again, just barely. NUGT up +3.3% today.

URTY/SRTY stays with SRTY, down -2.07% today.

Picked up some CREG today (China Recycling Energy) at $2.98. Like to see a strong move to the upside, especially on a big down day like yesterday. PPO crossover is a positive as well.