MrJohnRoss' Account Talk

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JTH said:
If someone had told me a month ago I'd be trailing the F-Fund by 4% today, I'da laughed at them. That long spike down on 26 December certainly appears to have been a valid signal.

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Looks like the top is in for AGG. $TNX bottomed Monday at 2.579%, and is now making at least a short term move higher. That means I'll prolly be moving to either stocks or the lilly pad tomorrow. I'll be studying the charts later this evening for the best move. Tried to post a 2-hour chart of $TNX here on this thread, but it crashed my browser. If you get a chance, take a look. It's pretty telling.
 
Folks, it looks to me like the gravy train may be over for NUGT, at least for the short term. System sells NUGT at $35.60 for a loss of -7.1%. System buys DUST at $30.63. I did not buy into this trade, as it was just too choppy to make any money. We'll see how DUST does from here, but it may take a few days to see if we're going to have any kind of significant move higher or lower.

I may sell my GDXJ to avoid a short term (2-3 week) drop to coincide with the miners turning weaker. So far it's holding up, but I'm keeping my eye on the indicators just in case.

System stays long SRTY.
 
Looking at Best Buy (BBY) and JC Penney (JCP) to bottom out for a possible short term play. They've both been beaten down severely. BBY looks like it might stop falling and begin a bottoming process first. High risk, high reward if you can time it right. :nuts: <== Nuts!
 
Regarding the TSP Funds, I've studied the charts and there doesn't seem to be enough evidence to make a move to equities at this juncture, IMHO. I'm not good enough to catch a falling knife exactly at the bottom, so I will likely move to the lily pad on my next IFT, which may be tomorrow morning. My timing systems will NEVER be able to predict the exact tops and bottoms of the market. Instead, they look for a change in trend, and ride that trend until it changes again. Oh sure, I can make some edumacated guesses as well as the next guy using support and resistance lines, Fibonacci ratio's etc., but sometimes the market has other ideas, and you just have to go with the flow.

As far as individual stocks go, I do track hundreds of them on a daily basis, and I'm seeing a blood bath for most of them. This is good news if you're waiting for bargains to show up. I've been building my cash position and doing some selective pruning from my stock portfolio, and I'm seeing some great stocks and ETF's that will be fun to ride on the next wave up. Yes, volatility can be a very good and profitable environment if you're well prepared.
 
MrJohnRoss said:
Regarding the TSP Funds, I've studied the charts and there doesn't seem to be enough evidence to make a move to equities at this juncture, IMHO. I'm not good enough to catch a falling knife exactly at the bottom, so I will likely move to the lily pad on my next IFT, which may be tomorrow morning. My timing systems will NEVER be able to predict the exact tops and bottoms of the market. Instead, they look for a change in trend, and ride that trend until it changes again. Oh sure, I can make some edumacated guesses as well as the next guy using support and resistance lines, Fibonacci ratio's etc., but sometimes the market has other ideas, and you just have to go with the flow.

As far as individual stocks go, I do track hundreds of them on a daily basis, and I'm seeing a blood bath for most of them. This is good news if you're waiting for bargains to show up. I've been building my cash position and doing some selective pruning from my stock portfolio, and I'm seeing some great stocks and ETF's that will be fun to ride on the next wave up. Yes, volatility can be a very good and profitable environment if you're well prepared.
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Mind sharing some of the stocks you feel could be good bargains in the near future? I see you meantioned BBY and JCP. I'd like to look at the charts and see if I can see what you see. :)
 
Changed my mind this morning, as the short term charts of the S&P are looking like the early stages of a short term bounce. I also believe the SPX/VIX ratio has gotten extreme. I'm going to play the odds that we're in an oversold condition, and will likely see at least a short term move higher from here. The first IFT for Feb is 100% S Fund as of close of business today. Let's hope this isn't a head-fake rally.
 
MaStA said:
Mind sharing some of the stocks you feel could be good bargains in the near future? I see you meantioned BBY and JCP. I'd like to look at the charts and see if I can see what you see. :)
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Hey MaStA, good to hear from you. Don't have time right now to make a list, but there's plenty of beaten down stocks to pick from. I decided to load up on some TQQQ this morning (3X the Nasdaq 100). If the market is going to make a good bounce here, I want to take full advantage of it. Take a look at leveraged plays like TNA, URTY, TQQQ, SPXL or FAS for some ideas.

I'm not recommending that you take a position in any of these, I'm just saying that's where I'd start my search for ideas. Everyone has their own comfort level for risk and reward, and mine is off the charts. Yours is probably much different. You also have to know when to sell these ETF's, so keep that in mind. Best of luck to you my friend!
 
MaStA,

Would you like me to have Mindylou send you a pm. She is currently building a buy list for my wife when her rollover IRA is ready to go all in.
 
Birchtree said:
MaStA,

Would you like me to have Mindylou send you a pm. She is currently building a buy list for my wife when her rollover IRA is ready to go all in.
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Sure Birch! I like ideas so I can research them on my own. I simply don't have the time to do much research with work and school. :(
 
Tomorrow's unemployment numbers could be a surprise... either way. I've seen reports claiming it's gonna be much higher, and other reports claiming it's gonna be much lower than expected. So be prepared for a market that may shoot like a rocket at the open... or plunge off a waterfall. Either way, I hope I'm prepared.

System results:

NUGT/DUST continues to hold DUST, up a fraction today. It's odd to see GDXJ (+1.22%) do well when NUGT is falling.

URTY/SRTY continues to hold SRTY (-2.47%), but it's close to a switch. If the markets open sharply higher tomorrow, expect the system to immediately switch to URTY. I picked up some TQQQ this morning based on some technical work. Tomorrow could blow me out of the water... or it could be a nice upside surprise. Can't wait to see what tomorrow brings. ;)
 
Just getting a chance to post. Great to see the market shoot like a rocket on the unemployment news. Yesterday's big stake in TQQQ is paying off handsomely, up over 5% today.

As I mentioned yesterday, if the market shot up higher at the open, there would be a system switch from SRTY to URTY. That's exactly what happened. System sold SRTY at $47.94 for a net gain of +4.72% in five days. System bought URTY @ $76.88.

It also looks like my position in AAPL is performing well after today's announcement that the company has purchased a HUGE stake ($14B) in it's own stock.

Will provide updates on NUGT/DUST after the close.
 
Next Week's Stock Market Forecast

Here's my interpretation of the S&P chart for next week:

1. For the short term, we may run into resistance at the convergence of the 50 day and 26 day SMA tomorrow near 1810. After two big days of back to back gains, we may get a bit of a pause here.

2. However, that being said, the gas pedal is being pushed down from a very low level on the Stoch. That means there's a lot of fuel in the tank. I expect the market to make a nice run before this wave is completed.

3. PPO, which has been oscillating between +1.0 and -1.0 is making a nice rounded bottom at -1.0, and is now heading higher. That's a good strong sign.

4. RSI, which nearly reached the oversold level of 30, is rebounding nicely and has a long way to go before we get to the overbought level of 70+.

5. Possible upside target is the upper trend line. That could put us near 1880 - 1890 area, possibly even 1900. Markets seem to like round numbers before pulling back.

$spx.png

My decision to move to the S Fund rather than C or I was due to this expected bounce. The S Fund typically outperforms C on strong moves higher, and the I Fund seemed a bit too erratic for me, although in hind sight, it was even more oversold than C or S, so it may lead the pack on this wave up. Of course, all of that depends on how the dollar performs, so there is that unknown factor.

Good luck to us!
 
MJR
your position on aapl , is that a short or long term investment? i have some and had for awhile so i guess i'm long on it. probably should have sold by now but still holding. just curious how your playing it.
 
GUCHI said:
MJR
your position on aapl , is that a short or long term investment? i have some and had for awhile so i guess i'm long on it. probably should have sold by now but still holding. just curious how your playing it.
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Good question. I'd like to hold AAPL long term, but it depends on how the market behaves. AAPL hit a split adjusted high of 680.59 back in Sept of 2012. It then caved down for 7 long months to a low of 375.60 in April of 2013. That's a -45% loss. I wouldn't want to hold a stock through that period, not matter how popular it is. Certain members of this board are "buy & hold forever" kind, but not me. I'd rather sell a stock when it starts looking weak, and put my money to use on another stock that looks more promising. Everyone's different, so what works for me may not work for you.

I do think that if the stock market can avoid a serious correction this year, there's a good probability that AAPL could challenge it's old high of 680 sometime later this year. But first things first... we need to get through the 572 area first, which is about +8% higher from here. I'm betting we do that in the next 1 - 2 months, barring any kind of major market melt down.

Good luck!
 
Here's how my systems performed today:

NUGT remains a hold, up +9.92% today. Metals continue to make impressive gains. GLD continues it's climb higher. SLV looks like it's trying to climb out of it's base, which I believe it will soon. GDXJ is going absolutely gangbusters, up an impressive +4.20% today. :nuts:

URTY remains a hold, up +0.81% today. My bet on TQQQ continues to pay off, up another +1.84% today. Although we could see a short term rest, I think it's got another 6-7% more to go to the upside before perhaps finding resistance in the 65 area.
 
tsptalk said:
Looks like you missed a post on NUGT / DUST?
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Ack! You are correct. My apologies, I thought I had already posted the switch. System sold DUST at the close on Friday at 28.07 for a loss of -8.36%. System bought NUGT at the close on Fri at 38.21.

I realize I need to keep track of my overall progress with this system in a spreadsheet, but just haven't had time yet. It's on my to-do list for the near future.

Thanks for catching the missed post, Tom!
 
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