More on Market Timing

[Show-me]

Interesting concept. Might I suggest a different three legs to provide a more solid base for your stool. How about maximizing savings, minimizing taxes, and asset allocation (a shifting asset allocation in your case.)

My savings contributions are max'ed, my federal tax liability last year was $147, and I like my allocation just fine.

Thank Goodness. I'm surprised you think your 2 years on TSPTalk makes you sufficiently smart to be able to outwit the market. Perhaps you should follow your own recommendations?

O I'm sure you are surprised. I have never ever made the claim that I could or would outwit the market. And, I'll do what ever I what with my money.

Nope. I don't think you're idiots at all. Everything coming from the news and Wall Street says your methods work. But if you look at what has really worked in investing in the past, you get a very different picture. I am trying to present that picture.

Yes you do. Now either the methods work or they don't. Which is it?

True. But it is important when you begin a process to consider what method is MOST LIKELY to get you to your goals. I submit that while it is possible to market-time successfully enough to reach your goals, you would be more likely to reach them by staying the course.

Or I might get there faster by missing the bear years.

No. Those with tiny balances need to maximize their contributions, not their returns. For example, an investor with a balance of just $10,000 who contributes $5000 a year for 15 years and earns an 8% return would end up with $167,482. By increasing that return to 10%, he would end up with $200,634.89. If instead of increasing his return, he concentrated on saving more and saved an extra $2000 per year, he would end up with $221,786.49. In the beginning it is MUCH more important to maximize contributions than to maximize return. The return becomes more important toward the end of your investing lifetime.

One thing we might agree on, but I still want the higher return.

Perhaps, but data on past market-timers is dismal in this regard. You are correct that we don't have any data from a bear market for this group. But remember, you don't have to just beat a buy-and-hold strategy in a bear market. You must beat the buy-and-holders by MORE than you lost to them in the preceding/following bull cycle.

Stay tuned and we will see.

As near as I can tell he has only discussed one market timer. How many unsuccessful market timing newsletters would I need to present to you to convince you just how rare that is. Let's consider the man who most investors consider the greatest investor of all time, Warren Buffett. His favorite holding period? Forever. He has held his stocks for decades at a time. I think there is a message there.

lol Mr. Buffett is even more rare than Mr. Brinker.

We've heard that before. Let's see, we heard it in the 1920s, we heard it in the 1960s, we heard it in the late 1990s.

And nothing has changed? Were you a trader during those times?

The more information that becomes available to investors everywhere the more efficient the market becomes and the more difficult timing it successfully will be. I suspect it will be more difficult to make trading pay off better than holding in the future.

And that is your opinion and you are entitled it.

Now I'm done! Going to a PARTY!!!!! Drinks on my wifes boss!!! Whoohoo!

 

[ebbnflow]

Desperado,

You seem to be frustrated because you have not made any headway with your opinion. It seems the more you post, your tone and tenor are becoming increasingly shrill.

Your "study" has been dismissed, so now you resort to line-by-line retort, which fails to address the very basics of the discussion you initiated.

You also demean the very many who have shown you the kindness to at least participate in this discussion. You seem to have an aversion to those who would presume to disagree with you.

You are isolated in your opinion, yet it seems that you do not have the wisdom or the grace to concede.

While you are welcome to continue to post, please demonstrate some hospitality to the rest of the participants. And, unless you have some new material, save yourself the exhaustion of repeating the same basic assertions that you have already elucidated heretofore.

Dang, SkyPilot! You got me hanging on to every word you posted with a magnifier in hand. Very effective.

 

[Desperado]

Well, I'll check back in in a few months or a few years or whenever I get around to checking my account balances again. Until then, have a great time!

 

[Show-me]

Be safe and see you then.

 

[Oldcoin]

Well, I'll check back in in a few months or a few years or whenever I get around to checking my account balances again. Until then, have a great time!

Thanks for dropping by

 

[SkyPilot]

Well, I'll check back in in a few months or a few years or whenever I get around to checking my account balances again. Until then, have a great time!

This is what is called a "drive by"... tantamount to "I'm taking my ball and going home"...

Notice the failure to expose oneself to legitimate examination by refusing to participate and post their allocation. When one postures in such a manner they demonstrate their ultimate lack of conviction in their stated position.

One who behaves in such a manner will likely obsess about what they claim to hold in indifference. Curious as well, when one claims to be so deeply concerned about the balances of others, that they would claim to ignore their own.

This behavior is likely manifest in some fashion in other interpersonal exchanges. Typically, when an impasse develops, and it becomes clear that domination of the discourse cannot be achieved, then one might compensate disengaging and retreating with the rational that they are not appreciated and adopt a "martyr's complex" to feel justified. In this case, the scenario is made complete with the cliche' parting "shot".

 

[fabijo]

Hey, don't leave without downloading the Monkey Spreadsheet!!!

http://www.mircats.com/fabio/Monkey.xls

 

[coolhand]

Geez, after spending the last half hour reading all this "stuff" it occured to me what I want to ask Santa for this year...an ignore button on the TSPTalk website! :nuts:

Nevermind, I just found it...kinda hidden don'tcha think?


Oh yeah, this is much better. You folks should try it.

 

[ATCJeff]

Dang, SkyPilot! You got me hanging on to every word you posted with a magnifier in hand. Very effective.

Hey I found a use for the zoom feature in IE 7.0. I only had to goto 400% to read SkyPilot's post.

 

[Fivetears]

I think you may have missed this, SkyPilot, but Mr. Desperado did in-fact commit to posting his allocation starting January 2007, and generally participate. Check his third sentence.
http://www.tsptalk.com/mb/showpost.php?p=66083&postcount=65
I'd be deeply disappointed to learn a man with seemingly this level of financial brilliance, is not a man of his word. Heck, I could use a good math tutor.

This is what is called a "drive by"... tantamount to "I'm taking my ball and going home"...

Notice the failure to expose oneself to legitimate examination by refusing to participate and post their allocation. When one postures in such a manner they demonstrate their ultimate lack of conviction in their stated position.

One who behaves in such a manner will likely obsess about what they claim to hold in indifference. Curious as well, when one claims to be so deeply concerned about the balances of others, that they would claim to ignore their own.

This behavior is likely manifest in some fashion in other interpersonal exchanges. Typically, when an impasse develops, and it becomes clear that domination of the discourse cannot be achieved, then one might compensate disengaging and retreating with the rational that they are not appreciated and adopt a "martyr's complex" to feel justified. In this case, the scenario is made complete with the cliche' parting "shot".

 

[Fivetears]

So... How do you like MSIE 7.0?

Hey I found a use for the zoom feature in IE 7.0. I only had to goto 400% to read SkyPilot's post.

 

[ATCJeff]

So... How do you like MSIE 7.0?

So far so good. I love the tabs and it does seem a little faster. Hard to tell. I'm on a super fast connection. I wish you could set IE up to open multiple tabs on pre set pages on launch. That would be cool.

 

[Fivetears]

Any difficulty with financial x-actions, banking , etc.??

 

[ATCJeff]

Any difficulty with financial x-actions, banking , etc.??

None that I or my wife have run across.

 

[fabijo]

The monkey results are in. Check out the Study for Griffin thread.

 

[SkyPilot]

I think you may have missed this, SkyPilot, but Mr. Desperado did in-fact commit to posting his allocation starting January 2007, and generally participate. Check his third sentence.
http://www.tsptalk.com/mb/showpost.php?p=66083&postcount=65
I'd be deeply disappointed to learn a man with seemingly this level of financial brilliance, is not a man of his word. Heck, I could use a good math tutor.

Yes he did commit, but words without deeds are a hypocrisy. A shame too, because he had a wonderful chance to demonstrate the validity of his claim. Maybe he is less certain than he would have us (or himself) beleive...

 

[Oldcoin]

So far so good. I love the tabs and it does seem a little faster. Hard to tell. I'm on a super fast connection. I wish you could set IE up to open multiple tabs on pre set pages on launch. That would be cool.

I'm not sure, but when I shut down it asks if I want to open the same tabs next time I log on. It's just click the box. (I really hope we're talking about the same thing or I'm going to feel really dumb!)

 

[ATCJeff]

I'm not sure, but when I shut down it asks if I want to open the same tabs next time I log on. It's just click the box. (I really hope we're talking about the same thing or I'm going to feel really dumb!)

Never seen this msg you talk about.

 

[ATCJeff]

I'm not sure, but when I shut down it asks if I want to open the same tabs next time I log on. It's just click the box. (I really hope we're talking about the same thing or I'm going to feel really dumb!)

Hey found it! Now I really like 7.0.

Thanks Oldcoin

 

[Birchtree]

Time in the market is typically more rewarding than timing the market. And where was the U.S. dollar index in 1995 when that terrific growth phase began? Right where it is now.