More on Market Timing

[tsptalk]

Time will tell? You're too kind to them, especially Tom. It has been blatently obvious the webmaster doesn't have a clue what the market is going to do next. Granted, that's only an insult in-so-much as he thinks that he knows what will happen. I dont know either. The difference is I know that i dont know. What's ironic is that in my humility, i'm probably beating 90% of the folks that hang out here.

Actually, I think Tom is on to something, just not in the way he thinks. I still stop by day-to-day waiting for his eventual switch to stocks. That's the day i'm going to strongly consider moving out of stocks and into G/F. The saddest part is i'm completely serious. My theory's based on a sort of reverse psychology from Tom's sentiment survey, and it goes something like this; maybe the "dumb money" guys are so dumb, they're actually picking the right way to go by some sort of accident. A double syke, if you will.

Its unfortunate a pioneer TSP site didn't focus on just getting out of G, and supporting smart asset allocation. I am surprised the site remains up. I would have suspected the folks at tsp.gov would have had this site down by now, given the harmfulness associated with market timing.

Azanon

Az -
There are so many things you naysayers fail to say, see, or understand. I'll list a few:

- The past couple of years have been a struggle for the active trading account but the timing of the long-term less active account has been very accurate with that account up about 26% in 2005/2006 so far. If you remember I called the bottom in June this year. Can you beat that? Do you even post your allocation here to help others?

- The active account has suffered recently for many reasons. I actually did better when I was more active. Not that more activity would bring higher returns but I had to change my style, adjusting to accommodate the 11,000 people who want to be alerted when I make a move. Try trading and having a dozen or more people complain every time because they did not get their email in time, or they were whipsawed because I moved 2 days in a row, and they missed one. I am handicapped in a few ways but I realize I put myself in this position. I can see I will have to compromise and make changes somewhere because it is getting too difficult to please all of the people, all of the time. You have to realize that there are people from 20 years old to 70+ years old on that list. I couldn't just sit in 100% I fund riding the rally knowing it was possible there could be a large swoop to the downside at any time. How responsible would that be?

- You think the site should be shut down? The only reason you are able to give your input is because of this site. Whether I am helping or not, this site is not about my return but rather it provides a forum for people to discuss what may be best for them. You never once acknowledged that in the almost three years you’ve been stopping by. I don't spend my time going around dogging everything I don't agree with. I am pro-active and created a site with a vision knowing possibly half of the TSP participants were ignorant when it came to investing. If all it does is help people that they would rather be a buy and hold investor rather than an active trader, than I did my job. Some didn't know one fund from the next before they came here.

I hate to see people lose money but I think the only way you guys will ever come off of your high horse is to see the market get pummeled. All your arguments are short-term observations and the buy and hold strategy has paid off since 2003. If I had the foresight to start this website in 1999 I would have saved a lot of people some money as the buy and holders got crushed. So please - stop wasting our time dogging the site. I’m guessing you don’t see the good in much of anything in life.

Oh, yeah, and I beat the S&P 500 by 22% from 2000 to 2005.

 

[James48843]

Tom-

Ignore the naysayers.

Your site is gold.

Just to give you a story from today about the good things about your site.

This is real.

Today, a fellow employee from down the hall came in to visit with me.

He is age 49, and has been with the govt 12 years. He is FERS. He now has just $14 K in his TSP account, all in "G". He has been putting in only $25 a month since he started working for the Federal govt.

No one ever told him before that FERs employees have TSP as a major component of their retirement. He has heard a couple of us talk about the market, and about the TSP talk website. A month ago or so he started watching it. And now he has a MUCH better understanding since we began talking about it.

Two weeks ago he came over to my desk, and asked how he gets a PIN number for TSP. I showed him, and today he, for the first time, moved money into the L2010 fund, and bumped his contribution to $50 a pay period from $25. He wants to bump it up a little each pay period to see what the matching funds he's not getting do, and see how much he can go up without losing a lot of take home. As time passes, we're going to get him on track with L2030 or L2040, because he wants more risk, he just wants to do slowly until he understands it better.

When I asked him why he waited this long to get started, he said he just didn't know how important it was, and when he realized it in the last month, he just didn't know how to do it. Nobody ever told him before. Nobody at our Agency cares, except we in the Union care for each other.

True story.

Now, he's got a long way to go to grow his money. But because of TSPTALK.COM, he now has a chance at a real retirement. Your site, and the talking around the office, will mean the diference for him from a retirement of scraping by on peanuts, and being able to afford a real retirement someday.

I've now sat him down and talked about financial planning, and am going to help him get all his ducks in a row. He's going to end up restructuring some debt, reducing his costs, he'll soon save a ton on taxes, and he will be able to get full matching funds for his TSP nest egg that he is not currently getting.

Why?

Because TSPTALK got us to "talk'in.".


Thanks Tom, and igore the naysayers.

 

[Birchtree]

When he rolls into fifty he can play serious catch up if desired. That's why the Elephants passed their bills. $20,500 plus his match - that'll add up real soon over the years if he does a good DCA and doesn't get too thin. He can also learn to be a position trader to protect himself - but this market is going to run for years. Snort.

 

[robo]

Tom Commented:

I hate to see people lose money but I think the only way you guys will ever come off of your high horse is to see the market get pummeled. All your arguments are short-term observations and the buy and hold strategy has paid off since 2003. If I had the foresight to start this website in 1999 I would have saved a lot of people some money as the buy and holders got crushed. So please - stop wasting our time dogging the site. I’m guessing you don’t see the good in much of anything in life.

Oh, yeah, and I have beaten the S&P 500 by 22% from 2000 to 2005.

Market Timing data that includes down years from a Market Timer who recommends John Bogle's book often.

Brinkers 10 year return.


10 years ended 6-30-06 for all Model Portfolios:
Portfolio I: 291%
Portfolio II: 204%
Portfolio III: 136% (balanced portfolio with 50% fixed-income position)
Total Stock Market Index: 124% (VTSMX)
S&P 500: 122%

5 years ended 6-30-06 for all Model Portfolios:
Portfolio I: 75%
Portfolio II: 72%
Portfolio III: 52% (balanced portfolio with 50% fixed-income position)
Active/Passive: 64% (this portfolio started March 1997)
Total Stock Market Index: 21% (VTSMX)
S&P 500: 12%

Marketimer © Reviews

Timer Digest named Bob Brinker's Marketimer © as the number one stock market timing investment letter for the ten-year period through December 31, 2005 with a total return of 215% versus 172% for the Standard and Poor's 500 Index.

Hulbert Financial Digest ranks Bob Brinker's Marketimer © number one for stock market timing for the five-year period through September 30, 2006. The Marketimer © stock market timing model applied to the Wilshire 5000 total stock market index has generated a compound annual rate of return of 12% for the past five years, versus 8.6% for the total stock market index, and all returns are risk-adjusted.




3 years ended 6-30-06 for all Model Portfolios:
Portfolio I: 49%
Portfolio II: 48%
Portfolio III: 30% (balanced portfolio with 50% fixed-income position)
Active/Passive: 47%
Total Stock Market Index: 43% (VTSMX)
S&P 500: 37%

1 year ended 6-30-06 for all Model Portfolios:
Portfolio I: 13%
Portfolio II: 11%
Portfolio III: 7% (balanced portfolio with 50% fixed-income position)
Active/Passive: 11%
Total Stock Market Index: 10% (VTSMX)
S&P 500: 8%


http://www.bobbrinker.com/portfolio.asp

 

[FundSurfer]

What's ironic is that in my humility, i'm probably beating 90% of the folks that hang out here.

Sure you are.... That's called Monday morning quarterbacking. It is easy to say you did really well on this MB without any proof to back it up.

 

[Desperado]

Tom-


Today, a fellow employee from down the hall came in to visit with me.


I've now sat him down and talked about financial planning, and am going to help him get all his ducks in a row. He's going to end up restructuring some debt, reducing his costs, he'll soon save a ton on taxes, and he will be able to get full matching funds for his TSP nest egg that he is not currently getting.

.

Good for you, seriously. People really need that kind of help. But please do him a favor and don't stop by every week to advise him about which fund he should jump into. He'll do just fine staying in an L fund. Unfortunately for him, he probably has a need to take on higher risk and may very well have to put his money in 2040 or 2030. Hopefully, it won't be 2030 by the time he is able to retire.

But keep in mind that most of the talk on TSPTalk is NOT about restructuring debt, reducing costs, saving on taxes, getting matching funds, getting your PIN etc. Almost all of it is about market timing, which is the last thing he needs (and I would argue, the first thing he doesn't need.)

If TSPTalk would focus more on encouraging others to increase their savings rate, set an appropriate asset allocation, understand their investment options etc, it would be the great resource it should be. Instead it spends its time focusing on the noise of the market, selling newsletter type advice, and speculating on the inherently unknowable.

 

[mayday]

Good for you, seriously. People really need that kind of help. But please do him a favor and don't stop by every week to advise him about which fund he should jump into. He'll do just fine staying in an L fund. Unfortunately for him, he probably has a need to take on higher risk and may very well have to put his money in 2040 or 2030. Hopefully, it won't be 2030 by the time he is able to retire.

But keep in mind that most of the talk on TSPTalk is NOT about restructuring debt, reducing costs, saving on taxes, getting matching funds, getting your PIN etc. Almost all of it is about market timing, which is the last thing he needs (and I would argue, the first thing he doesn't need.)

If TSPTalk would focus more on encouraging others to increase their savings rate, set an appropriate asset allocation, understand their investment options etc, it would be the great resource it should be. Instead it spends its time focusing on the noise of the market, selling newsletter type advice, and speculating on the inherently unknowable.

Whats to stop you from starting a tread that addresses all those concerns it sounds like its right up your alley. Thats the beauty of this site. The only reason this site is here is to help people.

 

[grandma]

Unfair versus non-TSP market timers. It certainly isn't a disparaging comment toward any federal employee. It is simply an advantage you have, a reason, if you will, why you should be more likely to be able to time the market than the average investor.
And yes, according to TSP.gov and my leave and earnings statements, I do actually have money in the TSP. Why would I care about any of these issues if I didn't even have access to the TSP myself? Why would I even be on this board?

That is a good question, because your comments are never `we' - you call the rest of the board `you.' ...like a `me vs them;' makes it hard to perceive you as a part of the over 2,000 we have signed up. As far as encouraging, I think the other members do a pretty good job of that; Birch, for one, explicitly voices the fact that it isn't the market that makes our increase - it is the building up of the amount of shares every payday.

If TSPTalk would focus more on encouraging others to increase their savings rate, set an appropriate asset allocation, understand their investment options etc, it would be the great resource it should be. Instead it spends its time focusing on the noise of the market, selling newsletter type advice, and speculating on the inherently unknowable.

Maybe, as a member, you could start a thread showing newcomers, and lurkers, what & how they need to allocate & get started as soon as they are eligible. You could show graphs of the advantages of a lot now, rather than catch-up later. Some of the others have posted that here & there, you might could find it. But, I agree with your thinking maybe we do need a specific thread for that. No one reads the `newcomer, read this first', but it would be handy for you to pm them to your column on their first joining. That would alleviate the confusion of allocation & ifts.
You'll have to do a big ear-mark tho, to get the lurker's attention as to how & why. Then there would be no envy as to Timing the Market, but would understand when some of the board speak specifically of `Large Amounts.' it is due to their contribution amounts.
...thanx, Desperado - for the suggestion - it should work!
grandma

edit: took me awhile to get my typing corrected, etc - Mayday, you are good !!!

 

[ou81200]

Hello All---

Hav'nt been here for awhile. Actually my wife has'nt been here for awhile. I've noticed that there are "bashers" to this web site. It figures. You have a good thing going and then some people have to come in and try to mess things up.

Call it market timing. Call it whatever. The bottom line is almost everyone is here to make money for retirement and if someone can get some "IMO" advice on other financial planning, that's a plus.

We (my wife and I) actively trade our retirement accounts and we are doing well. I'm not savy on investments. But with the help of resources such as this site, I am more savy than I was---say a year ago.

Tom stated a long time ago that this was not a advice site. But a site more tailored to learning to plan for retirement. In that respect, this site has been successful.

 

[James48843]

But please do him a favor and don't stop by every week to advise him about which fund he should jump into. He'll do just fine staying in an L fund. Unfortunately for him, he probably has a need to take on higher risk and may very well have to put his money in 2040 or 2030.

Don't worry- that's exaclty where and what I plan to do- coach him into the L2040, and push up the contributions as large as he can. He's the kind of guy that the L2040 was perfectly made for.

 

[Desperado]

Whats to stop you from starting a tread that addresses all those concerns it sounds like its right up your alley. Thats the beauty of this site. The only reason this site is here is to help people.

I tried that once. That thread still has one post on it. (mine)

 

[SkyPilot]

If TSPTalk would focus more on encouraging others to increase their savings rate, set an appropriate asset allocation, understand their investment options etc, it would be the great resource it should be. Instead it spends its time focusing on the noise of the market, selling newsletter type advice, and speculating on the inherently unknowable.

Then it would be called FinanceTalk or DebtManagementTalk...

It is after all, TSPtalk!

And, you presume to tell others to sit in an L fund? Will you tell them to get out when a crash is about to hit?

Oh, that's right... "buy and hold"...

 

[350zCommTech]

Why do guys/gay waste time posting long messages? He obvioulsy has an agenda. No way he cares about the poor folks that might be following somebody here.

 

[robo]

Good for you, seriously. People really need that kind of help. But please do him a favor and don't stop by every week to advise him about which fund he should jump into. He'll do just fine staying in an L fund. Unfortunately for him, he probably has a need to take on higher risk and may very well have to put his money in 2040 or 2030. Hopefully, it won't be 2030 by the time he is able to retire.

But keep in mind that most of the talk on TSPTalk is NOT about restructuring debt, reducing costs, saving on taxes, getting matching funds, getting your PIN etc. Almost all of it is about market timing, which is the last thing he needs (and I would argue, the first thing he doesn't need.)

If TSPTalk would focus more on encouraging others to increase their savings rate, set an appropriate asset allocation, understand their investment options etc, it would be the great resource it should be. Instead it spends its time focusing on the noise of the market, selling newsletter type advice, and speculating on the inherently unknowable.

Newsletters are selling opinions, isn't that what you are doing? What makes your opinion and advice better then Bob Brinker's. In fact, why should I see your point of view over any of the newsletters I get?

Bob Brinker gave a sell signal close to the Top in 2000 and gave a buy signal on March 11, 2003. ( S&P 500 Index close 800.73 ) Still on that buy signal. Try to imagine how much wealth he has saved and made his followers. Don't tell me you think both calls were just lucky.

I hope you see me point.

You are here selling your opinion. So I ask again. What makes your opinion and advice better then the Top Ten Timers in Timer Digest?

I stand by Bob Brinker's Market Timer newsletter, his Money talk on demand, my Timer Digest subscription, and I love my Sharkfolio.


You are pretty bold my friend to make a comment like that after I just displayed Bob Brinker's 10 year returns. Again, I agree with you about your saving recommendations and most would do better in L Funds. However, for you to even compare yourself to Top Timers without showing your returns is a little arrogant to me.

It's clear to me your a very smart cookie. I'm not. I'm just a hardworking guy down in the trenches, not very educated, but leaned to always pay myself first and save often. The smartest thing I did was stay 20 years in the military and leaned displine and sacrifice. It's my key to saving. Save often and pay yourself first.

I resent your comment, because I recommend these services often. Your opinion belongs to you and I respect it. If you don't get these newsletters how can you comment about them.

Your opinion is what it is my friend, an opinion!

Take care and please don't bash my newsletter recommendations unless you can show performance data that shows your personal returns.

P.S. I only type about 15 words a minute, and I don't spell and write that great, but I know how to save a make money.

Using the TSP calculator, averaging 7% a year return, combined account money mine and my wife's, at the age of 62, I will have over a million dollars in our accounts. Why should your advice be better then the low risk approach I'm taking now? Why do I need 2 million over 1 million. I could list many more.

Maybe I don't like Market risk, maybe when the market goes down I don't have the stomach and sell at the bottom, maybe I don't care about making 5 million, I sure don't need it, do you. Maybe 5.5% in the G Fund the last ten years over 9.01 in the C Fund doesn't matter to me.

Ok enough Maybe's, and think about my opinion and other factors that you can not put on paper and a spread sheets emotions and risk tolerance.



I stay debt free are you? I like my newsletters and have been getting them for a long time! Call it a hobby of mine. Do you have one? Mine isn't that expensive and it makes me money from time to time.


Again, I find nothing wrong with your opinions about the market. In fact they are pretty much main stream as you are. A well rounded diversified portfolio, dollar cost average, and stay the couse. Did that in the early 80's and then I heard Bob Brinker one day. Changed my life!

Have a nice weekend Desperdeo, And you better let somebody love you, before it's too late!

 

[nnuut]

Why do guys/gay waste time posting long messages? He obvioulsy has an agenda. No way he cares about the poor folks that might be following somebody here.

Well, finally someone with common sense! Amen!:notrust:

 

[ou81200]

Desperado---

Let's cut through the chafe. Are you getting some kind of compensation to post comments on this site. If not, then you have my apologies. You must understand that the timing of your introduction to this site was impecable with the sudden popularity of this site by sources other than individuals not interested in the value of TSPtalk.

 

[ayla]

If TSPTalk would focus more on encouraging others to increase their savings rate, set an appropriate asset allocation, understand their investment options etc, it would be the great resource it should be. Instead it spends its time focusing on the noise of the market, selling newsletter type advice, and speculating on the inherently unknowable.

I think most of us are pretty skeptical about following the advice of others blindly, accepting them as authorities without having gotten our own hands dirty trying to learn as much as we can before making decisions ourselves.

This site is people "getting their hands dirty", IMO. It may show some oddities and tangents that aren't relevant or that may actually be wrong. That is what happens when you take the "red pill" (as in the MATRIX movie).

As explained on the web elsewhere: "The red pill is an unknown quantity. We are told that it can help us to find the truth. We don't know what that truth is, or even that the pill will help us to find it. The red pill symbolises risk, doubt and questioning. In order to answer the question, you can gamble your whole life and world on a reality you have never experienced."

I may very well at the end of my learning curve, become a long term buy and holder of one of the L funds as you recommend. But I don't want to do that without doing my own homework.

Your advice sounds very much like what the TSP administrators of the funds would like us to do. But I especially recently, have had too much of the Jeff Skillings (Enron fame) of the world telling the journalist that she wasn't smart enough to understand the market issues and she should quit asking so many questions and reporting so much misleading data.

Also, (sorry to bring in politics) but your attitude also wreaks of the WMD debacle where American citizens were told to trust the powers that be because they had information that we didn't have.

Won't go any further down that path but bottom line, I have learned to do a lot less trusting especially if I haven't done my own homework and more especially if it involves my own money. I am not easily convinced that others have done or can do more homework that myself.

That is what TSP talk is - doing our own homework and for some of us, we seem to have to "test by fire" to learn, i.e. with our own funds in jeopardy. Many (perhaps you) can learn without doing that but I have already explained elsewhere on this site that I am not one of those (it's called being a kinesthetic learner).

Everyone is different but please don't disparage this site because it gives us more information - perhaps not all the information is solid but we learn to separate wheat from chaff usually, some of us anyway, but that is part of the work. The mission of this site is to help us on the path to our own understanding, not to teach us to blindly follow advice of others regarding our own TSP.

 

[robo]

Why do guys/gay waste time posting long messages? He obvioulsy has an agenda. No way he cares about the poor folks that might be following somebody here.

350Z,

Because I enjoy this board, and a good debate. The real education comes out duirng exchanges like this. The best thing is I'm sitting here watching my HD TV and drinking a beer, and thinking about how lucky we are to have Desperado giving us Market Advice. He does have some good points, but I'm sticking with GFSSS!

I do agree with you about his agenda. However, his points and opinions are good and so are Tom's, Birchtree's, Griffin's, FundSurfers, Sugar's, yours and many others. I didn't include Spice, because Sugar is the Market Timer not Spice.

All just opinions, but some folks are compelled to try and convince you that they have a superior opinion or approach. Dealt with them my whole life.

 

[Birchtree]

Desparado,

Come on into the green pasture, the gate is open and the livin is good.

Dennis - permabull #1

 

[tsptalk]

Why?

Because TSPTALK got us to "talk'in.".


Thanks Tom, and igore the naysayers.

Thanks for sharing that James!

Tom