More on Market Timing

[tsptalk]

If TSPTalk would focus more on encouraging others to increase their savings rate, set an appropriate asset allocation, understand their investment options etc, it would be the great resource it should be.

Excellent point. We kind of take that for granted here.

 

[Propstrike]

I can only speak for myself and the my co-workers who started paying attention to TSP Talk around 2nd Q this year. I've been in the TSP since Jan 2001. When I signed up I set an allocation of 65C, 25S, and 10I. Only changed it once until 2Q06. I have seen a dramatic improvement in my returns since then. Mainly because of inspiration from this site. Thank you Tom. I only have the data since 4Q03 to present. In 2003, 9.4%. 2004 = 9.5%. 2005 = 5.6%. So far in 2006=13.4%. If I would have listened to my gut in may, I'd be up even higher. Two co-workers were all G for 4 years until we found your site. The education value plus the inspirational value of seeing others take a chance is priceless. Prior to my federal service I was a contract aircraft mechanic for 20 years and didn't have a retirement option. Am I in catch up mode? Yes. Thanks for providing the tools for us fools. Go TSPTalkers! Here's to good health and excessive returns for all.

 

[Desperado]

You are here selling your opinion.

I stay debt free are you? !

No, actually my opinions are all free.

And yes, I stay debt free. My only significant debt is a 15 year mortgage on which I put 20% down.

 

[Desperado]

350Z,

The real education comes out duirng exchanges like this.

I do agree with you about his agenda. .

Amen to real education.

But I've got to tell you guys. No agenda. Seriously. No agenda. Not selling anything. Don't work for Wall Street. Don't work for "those TSP folks." Just a regular guy, TSP investor, trying to learn from the mistakes of others so I don't have to make them myself.

I'm a student of much, including statistics (as noted in the other thread), personal finances, and academic investing theory. You only have one shot at investing for retirement. I think it is critical to make sure you are investing in the manner that is most likely to help you achieve your goals. If the evidence indicated that jumping around from fund to fund a couple of times a month was more likely to give me better risk-adjusted returns, I'd be right in there with you (assuming it didn't take a huge portion of my time to do so.) Even if it gave me a 75% chance of beating the buy and hold approach I would take it. But the evidence (so far) indicates I would have at best a 50% chance. But I think it is worth studying.

Seriously though, there is some real paranoia here. I'm not Mike Causey. I'm not with Enron. I'm not with the TSP folks. I don't work for Wall Street. I don't sell a newsletter (or even a book.) I actually enjoy helping others learn to invest better. I felt like I had something that might help some of you, so I shared it. That's it.

 

[tsptalk]

I actually enjoy helping others learn to invest better. I felt like I had something that might help some of you, so I shared it. That's it.

Don't you just hate when you try to help people and all you get in return is grief?

 

[Birchtree]

Heck, that sounds like my life story. Am I rudely interrupting again?

 

[grandma]

I tried that once. That thread still has one post on it. (mine)

Where is it? I don't seem to be able to put my hands on it -
Maybe the title needs to be changed, or something. The object is to have it available for lurkers & newbies to see it so they can understand what they have offered & how to max it. I just left a message with a fellow on another site this was being done!! :nuts:
...anyway, I don't see it . Let's get it out where it is noticible - front page, top fold type placement !!

 

[fabijo]

Heck, that sounds like my life story. Am I rudely interrupting again?

Birchtree, until recently, I've only been using stockcharts.com. They only let me expand the view for up to three years at most. Now that I've been looking at charts that span over 30 years, I see your bull market loud and clear.

 

[Spaf]

I know that it is probably a matter of semantics, but I never considered members to be "Market Timers" http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Market_timing

Some seem to be buy and holders. Some swing traders. Some position / trend traders. Sorry no day traders!

TSP is a retirement savings plan that uses securities, bonds, and equities. As a member gets closer to retirement there should be less risks to the funds that have been saved i.e., the idea behind the Life Cycle Funds. However, if the member has sucessful trading skills a different strategy could be used.

"At TSP Talk, we discuss what we are doing to protect and maximize our TSP accounts." The key words here are "protect" and "maximixe" To maximize you have to be aggressive at times, but somewhere in time you have to reach or not reach a goal. To protect would be to avoid a bear market or safeguard funds when reaching retirement. What ever system /strategy a member uses should be checked to see if the goal is being reached, if not the strategy needs to be changed.

Cost of living allowance (COLA) is a critical item. Being able to add to your principal the offset for inflation. The TSP funds should grow proportionally and allow for your planned withdrawl.

By planning your retirement picture you should be able to use your TSP funds to boost your retirement nest-egg. If one has other funds for trading on the stock market---that's a added plus. There are reputable internet brokers available for this type of trading.

Whether, your returns match the leaders on the board should not be the quest. Most of the leaders are quite sharp in trading and they show the best returns. There results are admirable, impressive. But, they are not everyone's goal, because of risk / reward. At some time you have to scale down to protect your TSP funds. And while the leaders are quite good, you have to make your own allocations that you can sleep with.

Therefore, my little old 7% includes my withdrawl and COLA. I can sleep with that-risk free.

Regards, and be careful.....
Spaf

 

[Gaetaone]

TSPTalk is making a positive difference and I am extremely grateful I stumbled on to it one day. I have civilians and military I work with who I hope take advantage of being able to take some control over their own destiny by exercising the ability to make intelligent and informed choices. Knowledge is power and this site is overflowing. I don't think I'm alone in that I'm a career Civil Servant making less than what I could if I hadn't made a definite decision to support the U.S. I'm proud of that. I also realized I put a major amount of my life into assuring through my efforts that the job gets done and that I was spending NO time at all on ensuring that I would be able to retire at a decent age.

My account is up 13.7806% percent for the year to go on top of my 15% contribution. Since I found TSPTalk and starting tracking on Sept 13th I have achieved a 6.8% return. Prior to that I used to ignore the future and think that somehow in the end I would be taken care of because I work hard. Ignorance is bliss and I was one happy camper... I fully expect to stay on top of my retirement investment and maximize my returns for at least another 15 years. Outside of learning about the stock market and TSP funds I've also learned so much about retirement planning, post-retirement investing, real estate, Southern etiquette, etc. etc.

Thank you for being here! Every bit of information is valuable and through disagreement comes progress. You also make this fun through healthy competition, camaraderie and antics. Don't ever think what you're all doing is not tremendously valuable because it is... Whether you time your moves or settle in for the long ride... To each his own and like much of what you see on TV these days you can turn it off, change the channel or watch the show. Choice and having a little smarts are good things.

Wow, for someone who really never says anything that was a mouthful.. You all have a wonderful weekend

John

 

[Show-me]

Whats to stop you from starting a tread that addresses all those concerns it sounds like its right up your alley. Thats the beauty of this site. The only reason this site is here is to help people.

I tried that once. That thread still has one post on it. (mine)

Desperado,

I'm getting tired of people dogging Tom and TSPTalk. Until two years ago I did not know crap about my three legs of retirement, trading, or investing. I could not even tell you where I had my money allocated or how much I was contributing. I stumbled onto Tom's site and have completely did a 180. I have almost payed down all of my debit, increased my contribution tremendously, consolidated my investment, increased my savings rate. Not my investments......my savings. Many of us at work TSPtalk about the market, TSP, and retirement. My recommendations to my coworkers is very conservative unlike what I do on the MB. I recommend Lfunds depending on time lines.


You started a thread and it has one post.......yours. Get a clue! :embarrest: You started another thread to draw attention to yourself. Fine, it's your right.

As far as savings rates, debit, asset allocation. We, have discussed this many times on the MB. Our savings rate as a people sucks and you will not force people to save. Our TSP is our best shot at Savings thus the "S" in TSP.

We have TSPtalked about using a ROTH as a savings/investment vehicle. Where were you?

We have TSPtalked about on-line banking that give higher savings interest rates. Where were you?

We have TSPtalked about savings bond, stocks, mutual funds, currency, ETF's, spreadsheets, loans, real estate, sex, wine, weather, fishing, economic data, buying used cars, energy efficiency, tax advantages, fair tax, etc. Where the hell were you?

Have you not seen some on the MB pushing the MAX contributions? Trying to get people to save more. Making reference to the IRS Max. investment contribution? We are trying to gently show people to MAX the contribution as early as possible.

Now I am not angry that you are here I am ticked about your reference to a room full of monkeys and the tone. You really think that we all are idiots and are wasting our time and money and that you need to save us from ourselves. Sounds vaguely familiar. What you have to realize is that you present your information and we can take it or leave it. I know, if we leave it were idiots. This is were you selflessly step in and attempt to save us again. I'm seeing a pattern develop. This is a fledgling MB and until this MB gets 5, 10, 20 years under its belt we will not truly know if our individual strategies work or not. You want us all to go to buy and hold and never try.

Another thing. People with huge account balances are inclined to be happy with a 7-15% return per year. Those of us with tiny balances need to MAXIMIZE our returns and contribution until we get a fat balance to work with. My strategy is to MAX my IRS limits while timing to my target and then back off and buy and hold till retirement and learn more and more along the way.

We have not even seen a bearish year yet. Who knows our strategy may blow your socks off in those type of years. You ignore Robo and the impressive information on traders he has posted.

I have read the buy and hold information that has been posted. The first thing that strikes me is the fact that the data is old, from a different time with no technology like we posses now. I believe this is a new era of investing. The exchanges are merging, the market place is global and going 24/7. TV channels dedicated to market news. The market hangs on every word and reacts violently one way or the other on that news. On-line banking, investing, buying, selling, ETF's all in real time with no lag. The ETF's alone are amazing. Currency ETF's, metal ETF's, index ETF's, sector ETF's, etc. We in this new time are cutting new trails and given a reasonable amount of time to get new data we may find that trading will pay off better than holding.

Sincerely,

The Other Monkey

 

[grandma]

Show-me :
What you said:

thanx - grandma

 

[James48843]

Who knows our strategy may blow your socks off in those type of years.

I'll drink to that. (Clink)

 

[SkyPilot]

Show-me...

Right On, Dude!

 

[CountryBoy]

Amen Show-me! I'm just sick and tired of some of the folks here who think they have to protect us from ourselves.... hmmm that sounds familiar, probably those folks that also are praying for a market crash, oh yeah, the blame America first crowd. Ya get kinda tired talking to these types.

Keep up the good work Tom.

CB

 

[nnuut]

Desperado,

I'm getting tired of people dogging Tom and TSPTalk. Until two years ago I did not know crap about my three legs of retirement, trading, or investing. I could not even tell you where I had my money allocated or how much I was contributing. I stumbled onto Tom's site and have completely did a 180. I have almost payed down all of my debit, increased my contribution tremendously, consolidated my investment, increased my savings rate. Not my investments......my savings. Many of us at work TSPtalk about the market, TSP, and retirement. My recommendations to my coworkers is very conservative unlike what I do on the MB. I recommend Lfunds depending on time lines.


You started a thread and it has one post.......yours. Get a clue! :embarrest: You started another thread to draw attention to yourself. Fine, it's your right.

As far as savings rates, debit, asset allocation. We, have discussed this many times on the MB. Our savings rate as a people sucks and you will not force people to save. Our TSP is our best shot at Savings thus the "S" in TSP.

We have TSPtalked about using a ROTH as a savings/investment vehicle. Where were you?

We have TSPtalked about on-line banking that give higher savings interest rates. Where were you?

We have TSPtalked about savings bond, stocks, mutual funds, currency, ETF's, spreadsheets, loans, real estate, sex, wine, weather, fishing, economic data, buying used cars, energy efficiency, tax advantages, fair tax, etc. Where the hell were you?

Have you not seen some on the MB pushing the MAX contributions? Trying to get people to save more. Making reference to the IRS Max. investment contribution? We are trying to gently show people to MAX the contribution as early as possible.

Now I am not angry that you are here I am ticked about your reference to a room full of monkeys and the tone. You really think that we all are idiots and are wasting our time and money and that you need to save us from ourselves. Sounds vaguely familiar. What you have to realize is that you present your information and we can take it or leave it. I know, if we leave it were idiots. This is were you selflessly step in and attempt to save us again. I'm seeing a pattern develop. This is a fledgling MB and until this MB gets 5, 10, 20 years under its belt we will not truly know if our individual strategies work or not. You want us all to go to buy and hold and never try.

Another thing. People with huge account balances are inclined to be happy with a 7-15% return per year. Those of us with tiny balances need to MAXIMIZE our returns and contribution until we get a fat balance to work with. My strategy is to MAX my IRS limits while timing to my target and then back off and buy and hold till retirement and learn more and more along the way.

We have not even seen a bearish year yet. Who knows our strategy may blow your socks off in those type of years. You ignore Robo and the impressive information on traders he has posted.

I have read the buy and hold information that has been posted. The first thing that strikes me is the fact that the data is old, from a different time with no technology like we posses now. I believe this is a new era of investing. The exchanges are merging, the market place is global and going 24/7. TV channels dedicated to market news. The market hangs on every word and reacts violently one way or the other on that news. On-line banking, investing, buying, selling, ETF's all in real time with no lag. The ETF's alone are amazing. Currency ETF's, metal ETF's, index ETF's, sector ETF's, etc. We in this new time are cutting new trails and given a reasonable amount of time to get new data we may find that trading will pay off better than holding.

Sincerely,


The Other Monkey

You can say that again, if you have the wind, you GO Show-me! Now I get a message that my post is too short, where did that come from? Oh, moved it to the bottom of your Quote!:embarrest:

 

[Desperado]

Until two years ago I did not know crap about my three legs of retirement, trading, or investing.

Interesting concept. Might I suggest a different three legs to provide a more solid base for your stool. How about maximizing savings, minimizing taxes, and asset allocation (a shifting asset allocation in your case.)

My recommendations to my coworkers is very conservative unlike what I do on the MB. I recommend Lfunds depending on time lines.

Thank Goodness. I'm surprised you think your 2 years on TSPTalk makes you sufficiently smart to be able to outwit the market. Perhaps you should follow your own recommendations?

You really think that we all are idiots and are wasting our time and money and that you need to save us from ourselves.

Nope. I don't think you're idiots at all. Everything coming from the news and Wall Street says your methods work. But if you look at what has really worked in investing in the past, you get a very different picture. I am trying to present that picture.

This is a fledgling MB and until this MB gets 5, 10, 20 years under its belt we will not truly know if our individual strategies work or not.

True. But it is important when you begin a process to consider what method is MOST LIKELY to get you to your goals. I submit that while it is possible to market-time successfully enough to reach your goals, you would be more likely to reach them by staying the course.

Those of us with tiny balances need to MAXIMIZE our returns and contribution until we get a fat balance to work with.

No. Those with tiny balances need to maximize their contributions, not their returns. For example, an investor with a balance of just $10,000 who contributes $5000 a year for 15 years and earns an 8% return would end up with $167,482. By increasing that return to 10%, he would end up with $200,634.89. If instead of increasing his return, he concentrated on saving more and saved an extra $2000 per year, he would end up with $221,786.49. In the beginning it is MUCH more important to maximize contributions than to maximize return. The return becomes more important toward the end of your investing lifetime.

We have not even seen a bearish year yet. Who knows our strategy may blow your socks off in those type of years.

Perhaps, but data on past market-timers is dismal in this regard. You are correct that we don't have any data from a bear market for this group. But remember, you don't have to just beat a buy-and-hold strategy in a bear market. You must beat the buy-and-holders by MORE than you lost to them in the preceding/following bull cycle.

You ignore Robo and the impressive information on traders he has posted.

As near as I can tell he has only discussed one market timer. How many unsuccessful market timing newsletters would I need to present to you to convince you just how rare that is. Let's consider the man who most investors consider the greatest investor of all time, Warren Buffett. His favorite holding period? Forever. He has held his stocks for decades at a time. I think there is a message there.

I believe this is a new era of investing.

We've heard that before. Let's see, we heard it in the 1920s, we heard it in the 1960s, we heard it in the late 1990s.

The exchanges are merging, the market place is global and going 24/7. TV channels dedicated to market news. The market hangs on every word and reacts violently one way or the other on that news. On-line banking, investing, buying, selling, ETF's all in real time with no lag. The ETF's alone are amazing. Currency ETF's, metal ETF's, index ETF's, sector ETF's, etc. We in this new time are cutting new trails and given a reasonable amount of time to get new data we may find that trading will pay off better than holding.

Monkey

The more information that becomes available to investors everywhere the more efficient the market becomes and the more difficult timing it successfully will be. I suspect it will be more difficult to make trading pay off better than holding in the future.

 

[vectorman]

Originally Posted by Show-me

" We have TSPtalked about savings bond, stocks, mutual funds, currency, ETF's, spreadsheets, loans, real estate, sex, wine, weather, fishing, economic data, buying used cars, energy efficiency, tax advantages, fair tax, etc. Where the hell were you? "

I was there for most of the items talked about above. I missed out on the sex talk; do you have a link for that post. lol :laugh:

 

[Show-me]

Originally Posted by Show-me

" We have TSPtalked about savings bond, stocks, mutual funds, currency, ETF's, spreadsheets, loans, real estate, sex, wine, weather, fishing, economic data, buying used cars, energy efficiency, tax advantages, fair tax, etc. Where the hell were you? "

I was there for most of the items talked about above. I missed out on the sex talk; do you have a link for that post. lol :laugh:

I threw the sex part in there to see if anyone was paying attention. You win! lol :nuts:

 

[SkyPilot]

Desperado,

You seem to be frustrated because you have not made any headway with your opinion. It seems the more you post, your tone and tenor are becoming increasingly shrill.

Your "study" has been dismissed, so now you resort to line-by-line retort, which fails to address the very basics of the discussion you initiated.

You also demean the very many who have shown you the kindness to at least participate in this discussion. You seem to have an aversion to those who would presume to disagree with you.

You are isolated in your opinion, yet it seems that you do not have the wisdom or the grace to concede.

While you are welcome to continue to post, please demonstrate some hospitality to the rest of the participants. And, unless you have some new material, save yourself the exhaustion of repeating the same basic assertions that you have already elucidated heretofore.