Monthly Jobs Report

U.S. payrolls increased by 147,000 in June, more than expected

Nonfarm payrolls increased a seasonally adjusted 147,000 for the month, higher than the estimate for 110,000 and just above the upwardly revised 144,000 in May.

Market pricing shifted strongly following the payrolls report, with traders all but taking the chance of a July rate cut off the table.

Government employment posted a large gain, leading all categories with an increase of 73,000 due to solid boosts in state and local hiring.



More numbers from briefing.com:

Nonfarm Payrolls For: Jun
Actual: 147K
B.com Forecast: 127K
B.com Cons: 120K
Prior: 144K
Revised From: 139K

Unemployment Rate For: Jun
Actual: 4.1%
B.com Forecast: 4.3%
B.com Cons: 4.2%
Prior: 4.2%
 
Also, we finally got positive revisions.

May nonfarm payrolls revised to 144,000 from 139,000. April nonfarm payrolls revised to 158,000 from 147,000.

However, the unemployment rate likey declined because the participation rate declined. Meaning, they fell off the books so they are no longer counted as unemployed.

This report all but guarantees no rate cut by the Fed at the July FOMC meet.
 
The negative revisions game is resuming. Big reports, revise down later. :mad:


From briefing.com

Nonfarm Payrolls For: Jul
Actual: 73K
B.com Forecast: 95K
B.com Cons: 102K
Prior: 14K
Revised From: 147K

Nonfarm Private Payrolls For: Jul
Actual: 83K
B.com Forecast: 90K
B.com Cons: 110K
Prior: 3K
Revised From: 74K

Unemployment Rate For: Jul
Actual: 4.2%
B.com Forecast: 4.2%
B.com Cons: 4.2%
Prior: 4.1%
 
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From briefing.com

Nonfarm Payrolls For: Jul
Actual: 73K
B.com Forecast: 95K
B.com Cons: 102K
Prior: 14K
Revised From: 147K

Nonfarm Private Payrolls For: Jul
Actual: 83K
B.com Forecast: 90K
B.com Cons: 110K
Prior: 3K
Revised From: 74K

Unemployment Rate For: Jul
Actual: 4.2%
B.com Forecast: 4.2%
B.com Cons: 4.2%
Prior: 4.1%
Hopefully the accuracy of Job Reports has improved from a year ago when the numbers seemed to jump around somewhat.
 
Don’t worry- that won’t happen again. Trump fires the person responsible for revising job numbers.

From Slate:

President Trump said in a social media post Friday afternoon that he directed members of his administration to fire Erika McEntarfer, commissioner of the Bureau of Labor Statistics, after the BLS on Friday published a July jobs report that contained what it called "larger than normal" revisions to data from May and June.

On Friday, Trump fired Erika McEntarfer, the commissioner of the Bureau of Labor Statistics—the apolitical agency that releases those monthly jobs reports. Housed within the Department of Labor, the bureau is responsible for collecting economic data on everything from wages to the rate of inflation.

On Friday morning, the BLS released preliminary data suggesting the economy added only 73,000 jobs last month, way lower than the economists’ predicted number of 115,000. The report also updated its payroll tallies for May and June, revising down their combined growth estimate by a quarter-million jobs. In other words: Previous reports of the Trump economy’s sturdy shape were mistaken, and this summer has seen a major slowdown in hiring.

To be clear, it is not at all uncommon for the BLS to revisit its previous job counts. As the bureau itself has often clarified, these recalculations reflect new information that wasn’t available when the data were first compiled. It’s why the monthly jobs number is always labeled “preliminary.”

That’s not how the president would prefer to see it. Shortly after 2 p.m., Trump posted on Truth Social that “I was just informed that our Country’s ‘Jobs Numbers’ are being produced by a Biden Appointee, Dr. Erika McEntarfer, the Commissioner of Labor Statistics,” going on to parrot an unfounded (but not uncommon) right-wing conspiracy theory that Commissioner McEntarfer had also cooked some of last year’s jobs numbers, for the reputational benefit of then-President Joe Biden and Democratic presidential nominee Kamala Harris. “I have directed my Team to fire this Biden Political Appointee, IMMEDIATELY.” NBC News soon confirmed that the firing had in fact been carried out. As BLS Deputy Commissioner and career government statistician Bill Wiatrowski stepped in to temporarily fill in the role, Trump continued to rave about McEntarfer online, writing on Truth Social: “In my opinion, today’s Jobs Numbers were RIGGED in order to make the Republicans, and ME, look bad.” That opinion was all but endorsed by Labor Secretary Lori Chavez-DeRemer, who expressed “concerns about decisions being made by” McEntarfer.

More:
 
Don’t worry- that won’t happen again. Trump fires the person responsible for revising job numbers.

From Slate:

President Trump said in a social media post Friday afternoon that he directed members of his administration to fire Erika McEntarfer, commissioner of the Bureau of Labor Statistics, after the BLS on Friday published a July jobs report that contained what it called "larger than normal" revisions to data from May and June.

On Friday, Trump fired Erika McEntarfer, the commissioner of the Bureau of Labor Statistics—the apolitical agency that releases those monthly jobs reports. Housed within the Department of Labor, the bureau is responsible for collecting economic data on everything from wages to the rate of inflation.

On Friday morning, the BLS released preliminary data suggesting the economy added only 73,000 jobs last month, way lower than the economists’ predicted number of 115,000. The report also updated its payroll tallies for May and June, revising down their combined growth estimate by a quarter-million jobs. In other words: Previous reports of the Trump economy’s sturdy shape were mistaken, and this summer has seen a major slowdown in hiring.

To be clear, it is not at all uncommon for the BLS to revisit its previous job counts. As the bureau itself has often clarified, these recalculations reflect new information that wasn’t available when the data were first compiled. It’s why the monthly jobs number is always labeled “preliminary.”

That’s not how the president would prefer to see it. Shortly after 2 p.m., Trump posted on Truth Social that “I was just informed that our Country’s ‘Jobs Numbers’ are being produced by a Biden Appointee, Dr. Erika McEntarfer, the Commissioner of Labor Statistics,” going on to parrot an unfounded (but not uncommon) right-wing conspiracy theory that Commissioner McEntarfer had also cooked some of last year’s jobs numbers, for the reputational benefit of then-President Joe Biden and Democratic presidential nominee Kamala Harris. “I have directed my Team to fire this Biden Political Appointee, IMMEDIATELY.” NBC News soon confirmed that the firing had in fact been carried out. As BLS Deputy Commissioner and career government statistician Bill Wiatrowski stepped in to temporarily fill in the role, Trump continued to rave about McEntarfer online, writing on Truth Social: “In my opinion, today’s Jobs Numbers were RIGGED in order to make the Republicans, and ME, look bad.” That opinion was all but endorsed by Labor Secretary Lori Chavez-DeRemer, who expressed “concerns about decisions being made by” McEntarfer.

More:
There's a lot I'd like to say here but I won't.
 
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