Monthly Jobs Report

[tsptalk]

More:

The 3-month average for total nonfarm payrolls increased to 289,000 from 227,000. December nonfarm payrolls revised to 333,000 from 216,000. November nonfarm payrolls revised to 182,000 from 173,000.

Briefing.com

 

[James48843]

More important- WAGES grew faster than inflation.


U.S. economy added 353,000 jobs in January, much better than expected

Source: CNBC

PUBLISHED FRI, FEB 2 2024 8:30 AM EST UPDATED 22 MIN AGO


Job growth posted a surprisingly strong increase in January, demonstrating again that the U.S. labor market is solid and poised to support broader economic growth.

Nonfarm payrolls expanded by 353,000 for the month, much better than the Dow Jones estimate for 185,000, the Labor Department’s Bureau of Labor Statistics reported Friday. The unemployment rate held at 3.7%, against the estimate for 3.8%.

Wage growth also showed strength, as average hourly earnings increased 0.6%, double the monthly estimate. On a year-over-year basis, wages jumped 4.5%, well above the 4.1% forecast. The wage gains came amid a decline in average hours worked, down to 34.1, or 0.2 hour lower for the month.

Job growth was widespread on the month, led by professional and business services with 74,000. Other significant contributors included health care (70,000), retail trade (45,000), government (36,000), social assistance (30,000) and manufacturing (23,000).

Read more: ttps://www.cnbc.com/2024/02/02/us-economy-added-353000-jobs-in-january-much-better-than-expected.html

 

[coolhand]

Well, let's have a reality check on these numbers.

Inside The Most Ridiculous Jobs Report In Recent History | ZeroHedge

 

[tsptalk]

Well, let's have a reality check on these numbers.

Recent layoffs.

1. Twitch: 35% of workforce
2. Roomba: 31% of workforce
3. Hasbro: 20% of workforce
4. LA Times: 20% of workforce
5. Spotify: 17% of workforce
6. Levi's: 15% of workforce
7. Xerox: 15% of workforce
8. Qualtrics: 14% of workforce
9. Wayfair: 13% of workforce
10. Duolingo: 10% of workforce
11. Washington Post: 10% of workforce
12: Snap: 10% of workforce
13. eBay: 9% of workforce
14. Business Insider: 8% of workforce
15. Paypal: 7% of workforce
16. Charles Schwab: 6% of workforce
17. UPS: 2% of workforce
18. Blackrock: 3% of workforce
19. Citigroup: 20,000 employees
20. Pixar: 1,300 employees

 

[James48843]

jOBS REPORT -- ON FIRE AGAIN!

ECONOMY

U.S. job growth totaled 275,000 in February but unemployment rate rises to 3.9%

Job creation topped expectations in February and pointed to a still-vibrant U.S. labor market, even though the
unemployment rate moved higher
Nonfarm payrolls increased by 275,000 for the month while the jobless rate moved higher to 3.9%. Economists
surveyed by Dow Jones had been looking for payroll growth of 198,000, a step slower from the downwardly revised
gain of 229,000 in January. The December gain also was revised down to 290,000 from 333,000.


The jobless level increased even though the labor force participation rate held steady at 62.5%.

more:

Jobs report February 2024: U.S. job growth totaled 275,000

 

[tsptalk]

Wow, good numbers, but they are working OT to try make these look good. They post the big headline number and once again, revise them downward later.

1) The unemployment rate unexpectedly ticked up to 3.9%

2) The jobs report beat estimates by about 75,000

3) January's report was revised down 124,000 (353,000 to 229,000)

4) December was revised down 43,000 from 333,000 to 290,000

So that's 167,000 fewer jobs in total than reported, making this month's 75,000 beat, really a 92,000 miss.

Also, according to the article, "Full-time jobs decreased by 187,000 while part-time employment rose by 51,000, according to the household survey. That count is used to calculate the unemployment rate and showed a decline of 184,000 in total employment."

Jobs report February 2024: U.S. job growth totaled 275,000


This is why yields are down this morning, and not up.

jOBS REPORT -- ON FIRE AGAIN!

U.S. job growth totaled 275,000 in February but unemployment rate rises to 3.9%

 

[Bullitt]

Government jobs at all levels: 52,000

Restaurants and bars: 42,000

Meanwhile, full time careers that create wealth are laying people off.

 

[tsptalk]

Does it even matter anymore? At $34 trillion in debt, and going up another trillion every 100 days, I think most intelligent people can surmise that it's all just a house of cards anyway.

-----------

Philadelphia Fed Admits US Payrolls Overstated By At Least 800,000

... we first have to go back to December 2022, when we reported something shocking: as part of its data analysis of the "more comprehensive, accurate job estimates released by the BLS as part of its Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages (QCEW) program", the Philadelphia Fed found that the BLS had overstated jobs to the tune of 1.1 million! This is what the Philadelphia Fed wrote in its quarterly Early Benchmark Revision of State Payroll Employment report at the time:

Our estimates incorporate more comprehensive, accurate job estimates released by the BLS as part of its Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages (QCEW) program to augment the sample data from the BLS’s CES that are issued monthly on a timely basis. All percentage change calculations are expressed as annualized rates. Read more about our methodology. Learn more about interpreting our early benchmark estimates.

So what did this "more accurate", "more comprehensive" report find? It found that...

In the aggregate, 10,500 net new jobs were added during the period rather than the 1,121,500 jobs estimated by the sum of the states; the U.S. CES estimated net growth of 1,047,000 jobs for the period.
...

Putting it all together, we now know - as the Philly Fed reported first - that the labor market is far weaker than conventionally believed. In fact, no less than 800,000 payrolls are "missing" when one uses the far more accurate Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages data rather than the BLS' woefully inaccurate and politically mandated payrolls "data", and if one looks back the the monthly gains across most of 2023, one gets not 230K jobs added on average every month but rather 130K.

Philadelphia Fed Admits US Payrolls Overstated By At Least 800,000 | ZeroHedge

 

[tsptalk]

Job growth zoomed in March as payrolls jumped by 303,000 and unemployment dropped to 3.8%

Nonfarm payrolls increased 303,000 for the month, well above the Dow Jones estimate for a rise of 200,000.

The unemployment rate edged lower to 3.8%, as expected, even though the labor force participation rate moved higher to 62.7%.

Wages rose 0.3% for the month and 4.1% from a year ago, both in line with Wall Street estimates.

Health care led with 72,000 new jobs, followed by government (71,000), leisure and hospitality (49,000), and construction (39,000).

February was revised down 5,000 to 270,000

Job growth zoomed in March as payrolls jumped by 303,000 and unemployment dropped to 3.8%

 

[James48843]

Total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 175,000 in April, and the unemployment rate
changed little at 3.9 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Job gains
occurred in health care, in social assistance, and in transportation and warehousing.

This news release presents statistics from two monthly surveys. The household survey measures
labor force status, including unemployment, by demographic characteristics. The establishment
survey measures nonfarm employment, hours, and earnings by industry. For more information
about the concepts and statistical methodology used in these two surveys, see the Technical
Note.

Household Survey Data

Both the unemployment rate, at 3.9 percent, and the number of unemployed people, at 6.5
million, changed little in April. The unemployment rate has remained in a narrow range of 3.7
percent to 3.9 percent since August 2023. (See table A-1.)

Among the major worker groups, the unemployment rate for adult men (3.6 percent) increased in
April. The rate for Blacks (5.6 percent) decreased, offsetting an increase in the prior month.
The jobless rates for adult women (3.5 percent), teenagers (11.7 percent), Whites (3.5 percent),
Asians (2.8 percent), and Hispanics (4.8 percent) showed little change over the month. (See
tables A-1, A-2, and A-3.)

The number of long-term unemployed (those jobless for 27 weeks or more), at 1.3 million, was
essentially unchanged in April. The long-term unemployed accounted for 19.6 percent of all
unemployed people. (See table A-12.)

The labor force participation rate held at 62.7 percent in April, and the employment-population
ratio was little changed at 60.2 percent. These measures have shown little change over the
year. (See table A-1.)

more: Access Denied

 

[tsptalk]

More: Jobs report April 2024: U.S. job growth totaled 175,000 in April

 

[James48843]

U.S. adds a much-better-than-expected 272,000 jobs in May, but unemployment rate edges up to 4%

Source: CNBC

Published Fri, Jun 7 2024 8:31 AM EDT Updated 2 Min Ago


The U.S. economy added far more jobs than expected in May, countering fears of a slowdown in the labor market and likely reducing the Federal Reserve’s impetus to lower interest rates.

Nonfarm payrolls expanded by 272,000 for the month, up from 165,000 in April and well ahead of the Dow Jones consensus estimate for 190,000.

At the same time, the unemployment rate rose to 4%, the first time it has breached that level since January 2022. The increase came even though the labor force participation rate decreased to 62.5%, down 0.2 percentage point. However, the survey of households used to compute the unemployment rate showed that the level of people who reported holding jobs fell by 408,000.

Job gains were concentrated in health care, government and leisure and hospitality, consistent with recent trends. The three sectors respectively added 68,000, 43,000 and 42,000 positions. The three sectors accounted for more than half the gains.

Read more: Jobs report May 2024: U.S. job gains totaled 272,000 in May

 

[tsptalk]

Wow, they did it again, George. :dunce: Healthy numbers but the bait and switch trend continues. Beat estimates on the headline number, revised prior reports down in the subtext.

According to briefing.com, estimates for June were near 180K (not 200K) so it beat by 26,000, but May was dropped by 54,000.



U.S. economy added 206,000 jobs in June, unemployment rate rises to 4.1%

Nonfarm payrolls increased by 206,000 for the month, better than the 200,000 Dow Jones forecast though less than the downwardly revised gain of 218,000 in May.

The unemployment rate unexpectedly climbed to 4.1%, tied for the highest level since October 2021.

Average hourly earnings increased 0.3% for the month and 3.9% from a year ago, both in line with estimates.

Jobs report June 2024:

 

[tsptalk]

Job growth totals 114,000 in July, much less than expected, as unemployment rate rises to 4.3%

Job growth in the U.S. slowed much more than expected during July and the unemployment rate ticked higher, the Labor Department reported Friday.

Nonfarm payrolls grew by just 114,000 for the month, down from the downwardly revised 179,000 in June and below the Dow Jones estimate for 185,000. The unemployment rate edged higher to 4.3%, its highest since October 2021.

Job growth totals 114,000 in July, much less than expected, as unemployment rate rises to 4.3%



Notice the June report was revised from 206,000 down to 179,000, which was basically the estimated number last month. So they've been repeatedly covering up this weakness, but there was nowhere to hide this July report. Between the two months there were about 100,000 fewer jobs than estimated. Someone tell the Fed they can cut now, before the economy goes into free fall.

According to briefing.com, estimates for June were near 180K (not 200K) so it beat by 26,000, but May was dropped by 54,000.

 

[tsptalk]

Just keeping a copy of this story in this thread:

Fed confronts up to a million US jobs vanishing in revision

 

[tsptalk]

Jobs numbers revised down 818,000 for the year. The stock market yawns, and rallies.


Nonfarm payroll growth revised down by 818,000, Labor Department says

The U.S. economy created 818,000 fewer jobs than originally reported in the 12-month period through March 2024, the Labor Department reported Wednesday.

Nonfarm payroll growth revised down by 818,000, Labor Department says

 

[tsptalk]

August payrolls grew by a less-than-expected 142,000, but unemployment rate ticked down to 4.2%

Nonfarm payrolls expanded by 142,000 during the month, up from 89,000 in July and below the 161,000 consensus forecast from Dow Jones, according to a report Friday from the Labor Department’s Bureau of Labor Statistics.

At the same time, the unemployment rate ticked down to 4.2%, as expected.

While the August numbers were close to expectations, the previous two months saw substantial downward revisions. The BLS cut July’s total by 25,000, while June fell to 118,000, a downward revision of 61,000.

Jobs report August 2024:

 

[nasa1974]

Well the market didn't like that news. :1244:

 

[tsptalk]

The final jobs report before Election Day doubles estimates.


U.S. job creation totaled 254,000 in September, much better than expected

The U.S. economy added far more jobs than expected in September, pointing to a vital employment picture as the unemployment rate edged lower, the Labor Department reported Friday.

Nonfarm payrolls surged by 254,000 for the month, up from a revised 159,000 in August and better than the 150,000 Dow Jones consensus forecast. The unemployment rate fell to 4.1%, down 0.1 percentage point.

August’s total was revised up by 17,000 while July saw a much larger addition of 55,000, taking the monthly growth up to 144,000.

https://www.cnbc.com/2024/10/04/september-2024-us-jobs-report.html

 

[James48843]

Well, what will a good, solid jobs report like this do for the election? This is about stability- and it never looked more stable than now. I’m thinking this will play well with many. Ya think?



The US labor market added far more jobs than projected in September while the unemployment rate unexpectedly ticked lower, reflecting a stronger picture of the jobs market than Wall Street had expected.

Data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics released Friday showed the labor market added 254,000 payrolls in September, more additions than the 150,000 expected by economists.

Meanwhile, the unemployment rate fell to 4.1%, from 4.2% in August. September job additions came in higher than the revised 159,000 added in August. Revisions to both the July and August report showed the US economy added 72,000 more jobs during those two months than previously reported.


I’m thinking it’s going to keep things consistent. We shall see.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/sept...-unemployment-rate-falls-to-41-123503927.html


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