Monthly Jobs Report

[tsptalk]

September’s jobs report badly misses expectations with payrolls increasing by just 194,000

Nonfarm payrolls rose by just 194,000 in the month, compared to the Dow Jones estimate of 500,000, the Labor Department reported Friday. The unemployment rate fell to 4.8%, against the expectation for 5.1%.

https://www.cnbc.com/2021/10/08/september-jobs-report.html

 

[Bullitt]

Inflation trade going crazy again. All metals, softs, meats, grains up big. Lumber up over 6%.

The average hourly pay of private-sector workers climbed 4.6% in September compared with a year earlier, Labor Department data show, as employers raised wages to compete over a shrunken pool of workers.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/september-jobs-report-unemployment-rate-2021-11633641477?

 

[tsptalk]

Job growth disappoints in November, with a gain of just 210,000, despite high hopes

Nonfarm payrolls increased by 210,000 in November, following a gain of 546,000 the previous month.

The number was well below Wall Street expectations of 573,000.

Despite the big hiring miss, the unemployment rate fell to 4.2%, a 0.4% percentage point decline that came even with rising labor force participation.

Professional and business services and transportation and warehousing led gains, while hiring in leisure and hospitality was sluggish and retail lost jobs despite the traditional holiday hiring season.

https://www.cnbc.com/2021/12/03/jobs-report-november-2021.html

 

[tsptalk]

So, do you think the market wants a strong report, or a weak one? I would think a strong one could take the 4th rate hike talk up a notch. A weak one would get the stagflation talk going.

Jan 07

08:30 ET: Nonfarm Payrolls

For: Dec | Trading Impact: High | Actual: -- | B.com Forecast: 475K | B.com Cons: 440K | Prior: 210K

https://www.briefing.com/calendars/economic?Filter=Today

 

[tsptalk]

Hiring falters in December as payrolls rise only 199,000, though the unemployment fell to 3.9%

Nonfarm payrolls rose by 199,000 in December, far fewer than the 422,000 estimate.

The unemployment rate dropped to 3.9%, better than the 4.1% estimate.

Wages increased more than expected, rising 4.7% year over year.

Leisure and hospitality was showed the biggest gains by industry.

https://www.cnbc.com/2022/01/07/hiring-falters-in-december-as-payrolls-rise-only-199000.html

 

[TommyIV]

The White House is setting expectations low for this month's jobs report which comes out Friday. They are citing the data to be surrounded by the worst of the Omicron infections but does not represent the bigger picture of the jobs trend. Does setting the bar low ahead of time help the market's rection to a disappointing report? Investors are seeing some signs in the market that the worst may be over for now, but how will a bad jobs report effect that? Or is it one of those times where bad news is good news since the Fed is being hawkish? Or does that not matter anymore since the Fed seems to have made up their mind already on the next rate hike?

White House Warns Latest Jobs Data Will Be Ugly Due to Omicron

 

[tsptalk]

Well, the lower the expectations, the easier it will be to beat them, which is really what it's all about for the stock market.


January’s payrolls report on Friday could be rough, with as many as 400,000 jobs lost by one estimate

Judging by the opinions of some major Wall Street forecasters, employment either slowed to a crawl or perhaps even turned negative in January.

ADP reported Wednesday that companies slashed 301,000 jobs in the month.

PNC is expecting Friday’s payrolls report to show a decline of 400,000 while Goldman Sachs is forecasting a drop of 250,000. Consensus forecast is for a gain of 150,000.

https://www.cnbc.com/2022/02/02/jan...many-as-400000-jobs-lost-by-one-estimate.html

 

[tsptalk]

So much for that prior post's warning:


Payrolls show surprisingly powerful gain of 467,000 in January despite omicron surge

Nonfarm payrolls rose 467,000 in January, well ahead of the 150,000 Wall Street estimate.

Leisure and hospitality led the gains, while professional and business services and retail also posted big numbers.

Wages surged, rising 0.7% for the month and 5.7% for the year.

Massive revisions juiced up the November and December totals by 709,000.

https://www.cnbc.com/2022/02/04/jobs-report-january-2020-.html

 

[James48843]

The additional 709,000 revision upwards for Nov and December - that again shows we’re doing just fine as the economic recovery moves ahead.

Looks like all those biased reporters have nothing to beef about.


Sent from my iPhone using TSP Talk Forums

 

[James48843]

[TABLE="width: 100%"]
[TR]
[TD]February jobs report: Payrolls rise by 678,000 as unemployment rate falls to 3.8%


Source: Yahoo! Finance

The U.S. economy added jobs back for a fourteenth straight month in February, with job growth continuing even in the already-tight labor market as new Omicron cases from earlier this year came down.

The Labor Department released its February jobs report Friday at 8:30 a.m. ET. Here were the main metrics from the print, compared to consensus estimates compiled by Bloomberg:

Non-farm payrolls: +678,000 vs. +423,000 expected, +467,000 in January


Unemployment rate: 3.8% vs. 3.9% expected, 4.0% in January


Average hourly earnings, month-over-month: 0.0% vs. 0.5% expected, 0.7% in January


Average hourly earnings, year-over-year: 5.1% vs. 5.8% expected, 5.7% in January
​

Last month, January's jobs report presented a significant upside surprise to investors, with more than 450,000 payrolls returning versus the 125,000 expected at the time. Job gains for December were also upwardly revised to total more than half a million.

"As the labor market grows tighter, we should expect some slowing in jobs growth," Alex Pelle, Mizuho Securities U.S. economist, wrote in a note ahead of Friday's release. "A greater proportion of hires will come from workers moving between firms than moving from unemployment or from outside the labor force."

Read more: https://finance.yahoo.com/news/febr...or-department-unemployment-usa-200943212.html[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]

 

[tsptalk]

Economy added 431,000 jobs in March despite worries over slowing growth

Nonfarm payrolls grew by 431,000 in March, a bit below the 490,000 estimate and well below February’s upwardly revised 750,000.

The unemployment rate declined to 3.6%, below expectations.

Despite the miss, the first quarter ended with nearly 1.7 million jobs added.

https://www.cnbc.com/2022/04/01/jobs-report-march-2022-.html

 

[James48843]

+ 428,000 JOBS;

UNEMPLOYMENT RATE UNCHANGED AT 3.6% .


America’s economy maintained its strong momentum in April, as the U.S. added 428,000 jobs — above the consensus estimate of 395,000. The unemployment rate, meanwhile, remained unchanged at 3.6 percent.
Average hourly earnings for workers climbed by 0.3 percent month-on-month, a slower pace than the 0.5 percent seen last month. Year-on-year, earnings were up 5.5 percent, compared with an inflation rate of 8.2 percent. That means many workers, even if employed, may not be benefiting from the post-pandemic economic recovery.

The data will likely keep pressure on the Federal Reserve to act aggressively to pull inflation down from 8 percent to 2 percent.

MORE: https://www.nbcnews.com/business/ec...pHVwsYYo-8e4VQ-c6pMgWb7Q9FOYO9KDoPdqk48jzP9Q4

 

[tsptalk]

Payrolls rose 390,000 in May, better than expected as companies keep hiring

Nonfarm payrolls increased by 390,000 in May, above the 328,000 Dow Jones estimate.

The unemployment rate held at 3.6%, while a more encompassing jobless rate edged higher to 7.1%.

Average hourly earnings rose slightly less than expected but were still up 5.2% from a year ago.

https://www.cnbc.com/2022/06/03/jobs-report-may-2022-.html

 

[tsptalk]

Payrolls increased 372,000 in June, more than expected, as jobs market defies recession fears

Nonfarm payrolls in June increased by 372,000, topping the 250,000 estimate. The unemployment rate remained at 3.6%.

Average hourly earnings rose 5.1% from a year ago, a touch faster than estimates.

Education and health services led job creation, followed by professional and business services and leisure and hospitality.

https://www.cnbc.com/2022/07/08/jobs-report-june-2022-.html

 

[tsptalk]

Payrolls increased 528,000 in July, much better than expected in a sign of strength for jobs market

Nonfarm payrolls rose 528,000 for the month and the unemployment rate was 3.5%, easily topping the Dow Jones estimates of 258,000 and 3.6% respectively.

Wage growth also surged higher, as average hourly earnings jumped 0.5% for the month and 5.2% from a year ago, higher than estimates.

Traders are now pricing in a higher likelihood of a 0.75 percentage point hike for the next Federal Reserve meeting in September.

https://www.cnbc.com/2022/08/05/jobs-report-july-2022-528000.html

 

[nasa1974]

Maybe inflation is forcing people to reevaluate going out and getting a job.

 

[tsptalk]

Payrolls rose 315,000 in August as companies keep up hiring pace

Nonfarm payrolls rose by 315,000 jobs in August, just below the Dow Jones estimate for 318,000.

The unemployment rate rose to 3.7%, two-tenths of a percentage point higher than expectations.

Wages also rose, with average hourly earnings up 5.2% from a year ago, slightly lower than the estimate.

https://www.cnbc.com/2022/09/02/august-2022-jobs-report-.html

 

[tsptalk]

Unemployment rate falls to 3.5% in September, payrolls rise by 263,000 as job market stays strong

Nonfarm payrolls increased 263,000 for the month, short of the Dow Jones estimate for 275,000.

The unemployment rate was 3.5%, down 0.2 percentage point as the labor force participation rate edged lower.

https://www.cnbc.com/2022/10/07/jobs-report-september-2022.html

 

[weatherweenie]

Nonfarm payrolls grew by 261,000 for the month while the unemployment rate moved higher to 3.7%, the Labor Department reported Friday. Those payroll numbers were better than the Dow Jones estimate for 205,000 more jobs, but worse than the 3.5% estimate for the unemployment rate.

https://www.cnbc.com/2022/11/04/jobs-report-october-2022-.html

 

[tsptalk]

Payrolls and wages blow past expectations, flying in the face of Fed rate hikes

Nonfarm payrolls increased 263,000 for the month while the unemployment rate was 3.7%, the Labor Department reported Friday.

The payrolls number was well above the 200,000 estimate, while the unemployment rate was in line.

Average hourly earnings jumped 0.6% for the month, double the estimate, and 5.1% annually versus the 4.6% expectation.

https://www.cnbc.com/2022/12/02/jobs-report-november-2022.html