Nonfarm payrolls fall well short of estimates

[tsptalk]

April’s expected hiring boom goes bust as nonfarm payroll gain falls well short of estimates

Hiring was a huge letdown in April, with nonfarm payrolls increasing by a much less than expected 266,000 and the unemployment rate rose to 6.1% amid an escalating shortage of available workers.

Dow Jones estimates had been for 1 million new jobs and an unemployment rate of 5.8%.

There was more bad news: March’s originally estimated total of 916,000 was revised down to 770,000, though February saw an upward revision to 536,000 from 468,000.

https://www.cnbc.com/2021/05/07/jobs-report-april-2021.html

 

[Bullitt]

Big miss. I saw someone dub this as the most important jobs report in 8 years. A bit of an overstretch because that person will probably next say, "We'll have to see what next month' report brings."

Fiscal stimulus is not transferring over to job creation and jobs is really the Fed's mandate. I'd also argue many will never enter the job market again as long as Universal Basic Income remains on the docket.

What happens when the moratorium on rent expires? Will it ever expire? Nobody knows, and in the wacky world of stock markets, even knowing information ahead of time doesn't really matter. Stocks can beat and drop (AAPL) and bad unemployment can be construed as good while good numbers can be bad (less stimulus).

 

[weatherweenie]

I am hearing more about employers not being able to find people who are willing to work.

Big miss. I saw someone dub this as the most important jobs report in 8 years. A bit of an overstretch because that person will probably next say, "We'll have to see what next month' report brings."

Fiscal stimulus is not transferring over to job creation and jobs is really the Fed's mandate. I'd also argue many will never enter the job market again as long as Universal Basic Income remains on the docket.

What happens when the moratorium on rent expires? Will it ever expire? Nobody knows, and in the wacky world of stock markets, even knowing information ahead of time doesn't really matter. Stocks can beat and drop (AAPL) and bad unemployment can be construed as good while good numbers can be bad (less stimulus).

 

[tsptalk]

I am hearing more about employers not being able to find people who are willing to work.

I think we're in uncharted territory. Many businesses are gone and can't hire, but the ones that are around need help. Unfortunately there an incentive to not work with all of the stimulus available.

As far as the market goes, who would have sold everything yesterday if they got a peak at the jobs report that was released this morning? I wouldn't have bet on a big rally in stocks. The dollar is down sharply again, and that is boosting prices of everything.

 

[weatherweenie]

Unfortunately there an incentive to not work with all of the stimulus available.

Is the stimulus really enough to motivate people not to work? I'm unfamiliar with what a family of four would receive on a monthly basis.

 

[tsptalk]

We'd have to look that up, but there are other factors like parents staying home because they don't want to send their kids to day care, or their day care shut down, etc. (COVID). I'm hearing a lot of theories but it's probably a combination of several factors. Like I said, uncharted territory.

https://www.cnbc.com/video/2021/05/...e-of-the-disappointing-april-jobs-report.html