Monthly Jobs Report

[tsptalk]

Without the Gov't jobs, the unemployment rate would have been 4.5%.

https://www.zerohedge.com/economics...g-jobs-report-record-surge-government-workers

 

[tsptalk]

U.S. economy added just 12,000 jobs in October, impacted by hurricanes, Boeing strike

Nonfarm payrolls increased by 12,000 for the month, down sharply from September and below the Dow Jones estimate for 100,000.

The unemployment rate held at 4.1%, in line with expectations.

The BLS noted that the Boeing strike likely subtracted 44,000 jobs in the manufacturing sector, while hurricanes also likely held back the total.

Revisions lowered previously reported job creation totals by 112,000 for August and September combined.

https://www.cnbc.com/2024/11/01/us-jobs-report-october-2024.html

 

[Epic]

Employment Situation Summary - 2025 M05 Results

www.bls.gov

Transmission of material in this news release is embargoed until USDL-24-2477
8:30 a.m. (ET) Friday, December 6, 2024
Total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 227,000 in November, and the unemployment rate
changed little at 4.2 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Employment
trended up in health care, leisure and hospitality, government, and social assistance. Retail
trade lost jobs.

 

[tsptalk]

US labor market finishes 2024 on high note, adding 256,000 jobs in December as unemployment falls to 4.1%

Data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics released Friday showed 256,000 new jobs were created in December, far more than the 165,000 expected by economists and higher than the 212,000 seen in November. The unemployment rate fell to 4.1% from 4.2% in November. December marked the most monthly job gains seen since March 2023.

December jobs report shows unemployment fell to 4.1%, 256,000 jobs added to finish 2024 on high note

December's jobs report will be the final look at the labor market before the Federal Reserve announces its next interest rate decision on Jan. 31.

finance.yahoo.com

 

[nasa1974]

US labor market finishes 2024 on high note, adding 256,000 jobs in December as unemployment falls to 4.1%

December jobs report shows unemployment fell to 4.1%, 256,000 jobs added to finish 2024 on high note

December's jobs report will be the final look at the labor market before the Federal Reserve announces its next interest rate decision on Jan. 31.

finance.yahoo.com

Looks like the market didn't care.

 

[tsptalk]

It cared about those high flying yields.

 

[tsptalk]

U.S. economy added just 143,000 jobs in January but unemployment rate fell to 4%

Nonfarm payrolls climbed by a seasonally adjusted 143,000 for the month, down from an upwardly revised 307,000 in December and below the 169,000 forecast from Dow Jones. The unemployment rate nudged lower to 4%.

The report also featured significant benchmark revisions to the 2024 totals that saw substantial downward changes to the previous payrolls level though upward revisions to those who reported holding jobs.

Along with the upward revision to the December count, the BLS took up the November total to 261,000, a change of 49,000. The two months together saw upward revisions of 100,000.

https://www.cnbc.com/2025/02/07/jobs-report-january-2025.html

 

[tsptalk]

U.S. payroll growth totals 151,000 in February, less than expected

Nonfarm payrolls increased by a seasonally adjusted 151,000 on the month, better than the downwardly revised 125,000 in January but less than the 170,000 consensus forecast.

Federal government employment declined by 10,000 in February though government payrolls overall increased by 11,000.

Average hourly earnings increased 0.3%, as expected, though the annual increase of 4% was a bit softer than the 4.2% forecast.

https://www.cnbc.com/2025/03/07/jobs-report-february-2025.html

 

[nasa1974]

U.S. payroll growth totals 151,000 in February, less than expected

https://www.cnbc.com/2025/03/07/jobs-report-february-2025.html

Wait until next month when they add all the illegally fired federal employees to the list.

 

[tsptalk]

Despite the massive layoffs in gov't jobs last month, the jobs report easily tops estimates? This is either really good, or really fishy.


U.S. payrolls rose by 228,000 in March, but unemployment rate increases to 4.2%

Nonfarm payrolls in March increased 228,000 for the month, up from the revised 117,000 in February and better than the Dow Jones estimate for 140,000.

Health care was the leading growth area, consistent with prior months. The industry added 54,000 jobs, almost exactly in line with its 12-month average.

Average hourly earnings increased 0.3% on the month, in line with the forecast, while the annual rate of 3.8%, the lowest level since July 2024.

https://www.cnbc.com/2025/04/04/jobs-report-march-2025-.html

 

[nasa1974]

Despite the massive layoffs in gov't jobs last month, the jobs report easily tops estimates? This is either really good, or really fishy.


U.S. payrolls rose by 228,000 in March, but unemployment rate increases to 4.2%

https://www.cnbc.com/2025/04/04/jobs-report-march-2025-.html

I vote for fishy.

 

[tsptalk]

I just heard the the gov't layoffs were not in the jobs report because the judge reinstated many of them with back pay.

 

[nasa1974]

I just heard the the gov't layoffs were not in the jobs report because the judge reinstated many of them with back pay.

HHHmmmmmmmmm!!

 

[tsptalk]

U.S. payroll growth totals 177,000 in April, defying expectations

Nonfarm payrolls increased a seasonally adjusted 177,000 for the month, slightly below the downwardly revised 185,000 in March but above the Dow Jones estimate for 133,000.

The unemployment rate, however, stayed at 4.2%, as expected, indicating that the labor market is holding relatively stable.

Average hourly earnings rose just 0.2% for the month, below the 0.3% forecast, while the annual rate of 3.8% also was 0.1 percentage point less than expected

https://www.cnbc.com/2025/05/02/jobs-report-april-2025.html

 

[tsptalk]

For future reference I am copying James' May Jobs Report post here...

A surprisingly strong report given the recent weekly data.

Post in thread 'Jobs report Friday and other issues'

Jun 6, 2025

Unemployment rate unchanged at 4.2%

Economy adds 139,000 jobs

bls.gov


THE EMPLOYMENT SITUATION --

MAY 2025

Total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 139,000 in May, and the unemployment rate was unchanged at 4.2 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Employment continued to trend up in health care, leisure and hospitality, and social assistance. Federal government continued to lose jobs.

This news release presents statistics from two monthly surveys. The household survey measures labor force status, including unemployment, by demographic...

• James48843

• 

More data from briefing.com. Notice the big downward revision to last month's monthly payroll numbers. The game has been the same for a while now. Big report. Revise lower in future months.

Nonfarm Payrolls
For: May | Trading Impact: High | Actual: 139K | B.com Forecast: 125K | B.com Cons: 130K | Prior: 147K | Revised From: 177K

Nonfarm Private Payrolls
For: May | Trading Impact: High | Actual: 140K | B.com Forecast: 120K | B.com Cons: 123K | Prior: 146K | Revised From: 167K

Unemployment Rate
For: May | Trading Impact: High | Actual: 4.2% | B.com Forecast: 4.2% | B.com Cons: 4.2% | Prior: 4.2%

Avg. Hourly Earnings
For: May | Trading Impact: High | Actual: 0.4% | B.com Forecast: 0.3% | B.com Cons: 0.3% | Prior: 0.2%

 

[nasa1974]

Looks like the market likes the job report.

 

[tsptalk]

While I was questioning the more recent fishy jobs numbers, this news nuggets slipped past me...

Nothing is real, and everything is political. The jobs reports have become nothing but trading opportunities. What other data is fake?

I tried to find this story on a mainstream media site, but funny thing... it doesn't seem to have been reported. If anyone can find a mainstream story or the BLS.gov data that proves or disproves this, please post a link. Thanks!


Labor Department Admits Hundreds of Thousands of Biden Jobs Were Fake

The Biden administration claimed to have added almost 400,000 jobs from July through September of last year, but new data released this week suggest none of those jobs ever existed.

While these monthly job reports are compiled from a survey of over 600,000 businesses, of which fewer than 200,000 are surveyed each month. But the BLS also publishes much more comprehensive quarterly data called Business Employment Dynamics (BED) that come from a census of over 12 million businesses—that’s over 17 times the sample size of the monthly job reports’ survey.

This more accurate dataset was just released by the BLS for the third quarter of last year, which ran from the start of July through the end of September. In stark contrast to the monthly job reports showing an increase of 399,000 jobs during the third quarter, these new numbers show a decline of 1,000 private-sector jobs.

In other words, the monthly reports had overestimated the number of jobs during those 12 months and were revised down by nearly 600,000. That’s on top of the individual monthly reports already being revised down throughout the year-long period in question.

And the downward revisions to Biden-era jobs data are set to continue. From March through June of last year, the economy supposedly added 398,000 nonfarm payrolls, according to the monthly job reports, yet the BED data show a net loss of 163,000 private-sector jobs for that period.

Instead of adding almost 800,000 jobs during the middle of last year, the economy likely shed more than 160,000 of them. The next annual benchmark will probably be a (retroactive) reduction of jobs under Biden that exceeds this year’s large downward revision.

To be clear, the monthly job reports and the BED data do not measure exactly the same thing, and the BLS also publishes another dataset called the quarterly census of employment and wages. Each of these reports excludes certain categories of jobs or industries like railroads, government, self-employment, agriculture, etc.

Labor Department Admits Hundreds of Thousands of Biden Jobs Were Fake

townhall.com

One reason I bring this up is because Powell said again today that they would start cutting interest rates if the labor market gets worse. These constant negative revisions may be meeting his requirements.

Despite the massive layoffs in gov't jobs last month, the jobs report easily tops estimates? This is either really good, or really fishy.

Notice the big downward revision to last month's monthly payroll numbers. The game has been the same for a while now. Big report. Revise lower in future months.

 

[rangerray]

I suppose I would look at that story as a guest editorial? I really don’t know how Townhall works. The author is from Heritage Foundation and I’m guessing not a journalist by trade.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

 

[tsptalk]

They do say,

To be clear, the monthly job reports and the BED data do not measure exactly the same thing, and the BLS also publishes another dataset called the quarterly census of employment and wages. Each of these reports excludes certain categories of jobs or industries like railroads, government, self-employment, agriculture, etc.

But it's amazing that folks like CNBC, the Wall Street Journal, etc., aren't putting info like this on their front page, or making it obvious.

I suppose it is rearview mirror data at this point, but that makes my point of these monthly reports being nothing but "shows" and trading opportunities.

 

[tsptalk]

Same author / publication after this past May report:

So yes, this latest jobs report has good and bad, but there’s also something ugly—and worrisome—in the statistics.

The Labor Department’s figures show the economy added 139,000 jobs in May, but the April and March numbers were revised down heavily by a total of 95,000. That means two-thirds of the payrolls added in May were jobs we thought the economy already had.

Large downward revisions became a trend under Biden and are continuing. To be clear, revisions are a normal part of the monthly job reports, but they became abnormal during the last administration, and nothing was done to fix the problem.

In 2022, it was clear that the monthly job reports were grossly—and consistently—overstating the growth of nonfarm payrolls in the initial estimates, and the Bureau of Labor Statistics has yet to fix the issue. Recent forecasts from the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia indicate that job growth in the middle of last year will need to be revised down even further by half a million.

It's unacceptable that these data are unreliable when major market movers (including the Federal Reserve) depend on the accuracy of these figures when making consequential decisions. The Labor Department needs to address this ugly issue immediately so we can better assess if future job reports are good or bad.

The Good, the Bad, and the Ugly in May’s Jobs Report

The White House on Friday cited the May jobs report as evidence that the labor market's robust, whil

townhall.com