mlk_man's account talk

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Don't spend that money just yet...................:(




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Just When You Thought It Was Safe!--New Move in Senate to Freeze Feds' 2006 Raise
By Ralph Smith
10/27/2005
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Here is a new twist to a well-worn topic. The topic is freezing pay raises for federal employees. The new twist is a move in the Senate to accomplish this goal.

As we have noted in several articles recently, (See Federal Pay: The Good, Bad and Ugly) the federal employee pay raise is part of the political process. Unlike the COLA's for retirees and the pay raise for military personnel, the yearly pay raise for executive branch employees is sometimes subject to vigorous debate in Congress and is eventually signed by the President. In past years, the President's recommendation for a smaller pay raise has been overridden by Congress.

That may still happen this year. Both the House and the Senate have approved a 3.1% pay raise for federal employees in 2006. That still isn't law as the appropriations bill with this provision is yet to be ironed out in a conference committee. And, of course, President Bush has not signed off on the law either.

In effect, it looks like the raise may go through but strange things can happen in our Republic as new laws are being passed.

This is not a normal year for government spending. Government expenses are rising rapidly. Discretionary federal spending has gone up 48 percent since 2001. Some federal agencies have much more money to spend on programs than they ever had.

But the recent natural disasters, the war in Iraq, and other legislation passed by Congress is creating fiscal problems. The deficit is growing and political pressure is building to cut government spending.

Now, seven Senators known as the "Fiscal Watch Team" have asked Congress to offset the costs of paying for damage from natural disasters along the Gulf Coast. One way to help offset these costs is to freeze the salaries for lawmakers and federal employees for 2006.

And, in a related development, President Bush also said yesteday he is willling to back the Senate effort to cut the federal budget.

Here is what the Heritage Foundation had to say about the proposal to freeze salaries for executive branch employees and lawmakers:

Lawmakers and federal employees should not exempt themselves from the sacrifices necessary to rebuild the Gulf Coast following Hurricane Katrina. A one-year salary freeze for lawmakers and federal civilian employees allows them to take part in the grand American tradition of sacrifice. This will save $2 billion in 2006.

The members of the Senate Fiscal Watch Team are John Ensign (R-NV), Sam Brownback (R-KS), Tom Coburn (R-OK), Jim DeMint (R-SC), Lindsey Graham (R-SC), John McCain (R-AZ), and John Sununu (R-NH).

Their goal is to cut government spending by $115 billion in the next two years.

The agenda for cutting spending, in addition to freezing federal employee salaries next year is straight-forward. Here is a quick summary.

Reduce non-discretionary spending by five percent across the board for the federal government. This has happened before. Between 1991 and 1996, discretionary spending was essentially frozen for the federal government.

The proposal also calls for delaying the new Medicare Drug Entitlement for two years. This change would save about $80 billion over two years.

Rescind highway bill "pork projects." This would save approximately $24 billion over the next four years.

The proposal also calls for creating a government waste commission. The commission is called "CARFA." This commission would be structured similar to the way military bases are closed. Congress would vote "up or down" on the entire list of suggestions as to how to cut back on government spending. There are currently 25 Senators who are co-sponsoring the CARFA legislation.

Senator Brownback said about the proposal to cut spending:

“I’m pleased to be a part of this team of senators dedicated to taking a stand against the culture of spending that grips Congress. Before we commit ourselves to significant new spending for hurricane victims, it’s imperative that we ask the question of where these funds will come from. There is no better time than now to find wasteful spending and redirect it to Americans who need it most.”

The bottom line on your 2006 raise: Don't spend the money yet. Chances are the 3.1% raise will still go through but until the legislation is finalized and signed by the President, the deal is not done. Your 2006 raise may yet go in the direction of helping to cut the federal budget deficit.
 
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3rd trading day before the end of the month. Could this be the day? Hmmmmmmmmm

I'll moving to 100% S fund this morning. :shock:
 
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Well looks like I might make a little money today, just not sure how much right now. Usually I'd jump out today but since I haven't been doing a good job lately of timing the market daily, I've decided to combine my short-term strategies with my intermediate-term. Instead of jumping out 100%, I'll leave 50% in the S fund and put the other 50% in the G fund in order to "lock in gains" and then try to buy back lower within a day or two. Once I get an actual"sell" signal, I'll move 100% into either the G or the F.

So this morning I'll be going 50% G and 50% S. I might even get half a penny come Monday in that G fund. Although there is chance it'll pay out today.

Good luck,

M_M
 
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BTW, I'm alittle concerned about semiconductors being down today and most of the ones I follow have delivered lower 4th quarter guidance. We're not going to be able to get much of a rally without them. They sometimes tend to lag a day or two behind so hopefully this is the case and not a sign of things to come.

Didn't someone say something about the market being up in years ending with 5? :%
 
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Did you staywith it or jump out?

History says jump in on the 3rd trading day prior to the end of the month and out on the 1st or 2nd day of the next month. Thing is, the Fed meets on the 1st of next month. :oo
 
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Went 50S and 50I for Monday. The gambler in me is taking over today...:shock:

Hey look I finally made it to 25 posts.. no stopping me now:D
 
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Atta boy! You'll be slinging mud with the best of em here directly!! :P



Keep an eye on that Spaf fella though, he's pretty quick with the soap and water.............:^
 
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mlk_man wrote:
BTW, I'm alittle concerned about semiconductors being down today and most of the ones I follow have delivered lower 4th quarter guidance. We're not going to be able to get much of a rally without them. They sometimes tend to lag a day or two behind so hopefully this is the case and not a sign of things to come.
Semis are up today. :^Sure glad I left some in the S fund for today, WOWZA!!

I don't know what will happen tomorrow after the FED does their thing. My thinking is the market will start down then go up after the announcement. How far it goes up is another thing. I think I'm going to go 50% S and 50% I from my current 50G, 50S just to try and cover my tail.

Good luck all,

M_M
 
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How about a little fun with numbers?

If someone had bought the S fund on the first trading day of the year, Jan 3rd, and sold it the next day going into the G fund, then bought it the next day, then sold it the next day, etc., basically alternating between the S and the G each dayfor the whole year, right now their return would be 16.71%!!! :shock:This doesn't include the times you'd pick up a little in the G fund once in awhile.

Plus, the only losing months would have been Sept. (-.42%) and Oct. (-.11%). How's that for an investment "system"? :^

I'd be curious to know what would happen if when you sold the S you bought the I fund instead of the G. When I get a chance I might check into it.........

Good luck all,

M_M
 
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I was going to pop over to the I fund for a day or two because I think there might be some profit taking tomorrow if today can hold. Plus Japan was only up minimally today and my Taiwanese semiconductor (UMC) is down which I'm attributing to some profit taking after it's run up yesterday. It's about the only semiconductor down today. I'm hoping that Japan can carry the I fund to at least a few pennies. However, since I still don't really like the I fund, I'm going to throw half into the F fund to protect some recent profits. It's at a recent low now so.....................

I'm moving to 50% F and 50% I this morning.

Good luck,

M_M
 
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