mlk_man's account talk

[Rod]

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tsptalk wrote:

mlk_man wrote:

Well apparently I'm still in S fund! What the hell gives with that? Think they are monitoring my posts? Hmmmmmmmmmmm

I can get out of TSP while still with the govt. can't I? I know some retirement plans with some companies won't let you rollover your funds as long as your with the company.

This is BS...................:X

That is disturbing, but it worked in your favor this time.

It sure did!!!:^

Hopefully for your sakes, tomorrow will be GREEN too.

 

[Guest]

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Mike,

Take the breaks when you can get them (about still being in the S). You made an additional 1-1.5% today (going off of the Russell 2000 index) Can't argue with that. Of course, I would be concerned about them not taking your order. Let's pray tomorrow is up again. What agood break that would be, huh?

Joel

 

[Timer]

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Wonder Woman wrote:

Wonder,



Where do you get the cool icons?



= Timer

 

[Guest]

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I designed myavatar myself but all others you can get at the websites below:

http://www.windweaver.com/emoticon.htm

http://kebawe.com/smellies/

http://www.smileys.ws/

http://search.looksmart.com/p/browse/us1/us317831/us317879/us225492/us328880/?&sn=20&se=45

 

[Timer]

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Wonder Woman wrote:

I designed myavatar myself but all others you can get at the websites below:

Still off topic, bear with me all....

How did you design your own Avatar? Do you that in CorelDraw or??

 

[Timer]

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tsptalk wrote:

I am wondering what really happened to Rolo and FrizzB. Rolo was such a great personality to have around and he contributed so much to the forum. And FrizzB had great ideas and was a wizard with the numbers.

No joke, I joined too late to get to know FrizzB but I really liked Rolo. He was nice to the newbies, me included and I never forgot it. For a crazy persono, he really had a lot of personality. Just kidding, you are right Tom, he added a lot of zest.

= Timer

 

[Guest]

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Okay I'm back. Hold the applause please..........

Just completed back testing 2000 and 2001. I sent Tom an e-mail explaining I have actually been screwing myself on my returns because I wasn't applying my gains or losses in any particular to an actual account balance, just adding as I went along. So my updated returns with my system are:

My Return Buy and Hold

2004: 47.18% 10.7%

2003: 63.37% 42.26%

2002: 27.49% -18.84%

2001: 30.15% -13.26%

2000: 14.33% -28.09%

Average:36.50% -1.45%

Buy and Hold? Yeah right............Man, 2000 was a tough year. I could probably improve my return by staying out longer that year, but hey, if it ain't broke............

Currently 100% G, but I doubt for very long...............

Good luck,

M_M

OH, and to those peeps who have been e-mailing me, I may look "stupid", but I'm really not.............:^

 

[Guest]

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Oh I almost forgot, that 8 year timetable I gave myself to make a million dollars just became 4. :^

My system seems to work on individual stocks also, although you do have bigger losses than following the indexes. Much bigger gains too though........

M_M

 

[Guest]

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100 % F fund today, transfering back to 100 % S this morning to be effective at close of business today. Hopefully S will stay down today, for me anyway....

 

[Guest]

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Updated transactions:

DateFund DateFund
Bought FundPrice SoldPrice % Return

8/25/2004 S12.499/9/200412.77 1.51%
9/10/2004 S12.849/13/2004 12.91 0.55%
9/14/2004 S12.9 9/16/2004 12.96 0.47%
9/17/2004 S 12.95 9/21/2004 13.01 0.46%
9/22/2004 S12.84 9/23/2004 12.83 -0.08%
9/27/2004 S12.73 9/28/2004 12.83 0.79%
9/29/2004 S 12.9110/6/200413.31 3.10%
10/18/2004 S 12.9611/12/200413.957.64%

11/12/2004 F 10.36 11/15/2004 ? ?

I'm also going to start a hypothetical account balance of $10000 starting from 8/25/04. Trying to make this easy...........

Account Balance:

08/25/2004 $10000

09/09/2004$10151

09/11/2004 $10206

09/16/2004 $10254

09/21/2004 $10301
09/23/2004 $10293

09/28/2004 $10375

10/06/2004 $10696

11/12/2004 $11513

11/15/2004 ?

Total Return: 15.13%

How's that?

 

[rokid]

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M_M

I'm a little fuzzy on the "strawman" buy and hold percentages. What combination of TSP funds returned -28.09% in 2000?

100% S Fund, whichwas the worst, returned -15.77%.

A 20% allocation of each fund returned -4.2%.

100% F Fund returned 11.67%

Same with 2001. No obvious TSP fund combination yields -13.26%

Clearly,you're assuming 100% S Fund in 2002 and 2003. However, 100% S Fund would have beenan awfullygutsyportfolio to hold afterthe pounding it took in2000-2001.

 

[Guest]

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Well that's how I chose to do it, sorry. Don't have time to add up different scenario's. I normally only play the S stock fund, so that is what I go by.

You'll have to ask Joel where he got the numbers from. He sent me some data from the past 7 years to help me out and that is what I used.

I took the ending price of that particular year and subtracted the ending price of the last day of the previous year and then divided that by the later price. All I did.

If you prefer a more "realistic" return to compare mine to, tell us what you think it would be. Better yet, what did you make those years?

Thank you for your comments, have a nice day....

M_M

 

[Boots]

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mlk_man wrote:

Updated transactions:

DateFund DateFund
Bought FundPrice SoldPrice % Return

8/25/2004 S12.499/9/200412.77 1.51%
9/10/2004 S12.849/13/2004 12.91 0.55%
9/14/2004 S12.9 9/16/2004 12.96 0.47%
9/17/2004 S 12.95 9/21/2004 13.01 0.46%
9/22/2004 S12.84 9/23/2004 12.83 -0.08%
9/27/2004 S12.73 9/28/2004 12.83 0.79%
9/29/2004 S 12.9110/6/200413.31 3.10%
10/18/2004 S 12.9611/12/200413.957.64%

11/12/2004 F 10.36 11/15/2004 ? ?

Does this mean you were in the S fund the entire timefrom 25 Aug until 12 Nov? There's a time period missing from 23 Sep to 27 Sep and 6 Oct to 18 Oct.


I'm getting a 11.69% return based off of buying in on 25 Aug and selling 12 Nov.

 

[tsptalk]

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mlk_man wrote:

I'm also going to start a hypothetical account balance of $10000 starting from 8/25/04. Trying to make this easy...........

How's that?

That's a bit too convenient. That was when we bottomed out.

 

[Guest]

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Boots wrote:

mlk_man wrote:

Updated transactions:

DateFund DateFund
Bought FundPrice SoldPrice % Return

8/25/2004 S12.499/9/200412.77 1.51%
9/10/2004 S12.849/13/2004 12.91 0.55%
9/14/2004 S12.9 9/16/2004 12.96 0.47%
9/17/2004 S 12.95 9/21/2004 13.01 0.46%
9/22/2004 S12.84 9/23/2004 12.83 -0.08%
9/27/2004 S12.73 9/28/2004 12.83 0.79%
9/29/2004 S 12.9110/6/200413.31 3.10%
10/18/2004 S 12.9611/12/200413.957.64%

11/12/2004 F 10.36 11/15/2004 ? ?

Does this mean you were in the S fund the entire timefrom 25 Aug until 12 Nov? There's a time period missing from 23 Sep to 27 Sep and 6 Oct to 18 Oct.


I'm getting a 11.69% return based off of buying in on 25 Aug and selling 12 Nov.

It means I don't bother posting when I'm in the G fund, but I will if that's what you want, I"m here to please..........

This is starting to become a pain.............:shock:

 

[Guest]

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tsptalk wrote:

mlk_man wrote:

I'm also going to start a hypothetical account balance of $10000 starting from 8/25/04. Trying to make this easy...........

How's that?

That's a bit too convenient. That was when we bottomed out.

Yes boss, I'll fix that too. But you'll have to post it for me..........:^

 

[Boots]

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mlk_man wrote:

This is starting to become a pain.............:shock:

Not trying to be a pain. I'm a details kind of person, and I have to have all the info before I formulate my own opinion about anything. I guess that tends to piss some people off occassionally. For me to properly evaluate your hypothetical return over that time period, it would help to have all of the info.

 

[Boots]

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Also, where the figures you gave for backtesting your system based off of TSP funds alone? If someone can make roughly 356% over a period of five years with three of those years being a heavy bear market, that's someone I would want to follow.

 

[grums]

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Boots wrote:

If someone can make roughly 356% over a period of five years with three of those years being a heavy bear market, that's someone I would want to follow.

Someone call Warren Buffett, I think he would want tofollow too

 

[Guest]

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Boots wrote:

Also, where the figures you gave for backtesting your system based off of TSP funds alone? If someone can make roughly 356% over a period of five years with three of those years being a heavy bear market, that's someone I would want to follow.

They represent the S fund and the Wilshire 4500. Didn't have S fund back then remember?