Market Talk

[Guest]

imported post

Dakota wrote:

Spaf wrote:

Why do we do the things we do?

Could be it all got started in a garden, a long time ago!

spaf, things are turning don't you think its time to go all in like c and s

Still early, wouldn't it be nice to day trade..................:shock:

 

[Spaf]

imported post

Chuck......Yea! I'm 100% stocks (can't sleep at nights) but I'm relying on Mr. Market. It's like what Mike just said. It would be great to have immediate trades.In TSP it's like you are chasing it if you go after the daily fluctuations, and it doesn't always work, at least not for me, so I don't do it. But we canposition our funds to our advantage in the primary movement. Sometimes we catch the nut on an intermediate move or correction. Sometimes we trip over the nut!


Rgds

 

[vectorman]

imported post

MarketTimerwrote: Look for one more good rally then a big drop off at point 23.




Hey MT, what do you mean by point 23?

 

[Spaf]

imported post

Victorman... MT was referring to the 3 peaks & domed house RE: Short term outlook he made 12-9

........................................................................................................................................

Buy and Hold and or Market timing

With TSP one has the ability to transfer funds and to change fund distribution. This is like positioning funds for the best returns or the least losses. TSP has a 1 - 2 day account transaction time which prohibits day trading and can be a pain for intermediate moves (corrections/rallys). Impossible with daily fluctuations. As MT has said it take a day to get out of dodge.

Buy and hold and market timing both, for profits, depend on buying low and selling high. Buy and hold depends on the market to rise, timing depends on entry and exit, but generally on a shorter time frame. Both systems work. There are pros and cons each way. The real problem (as I see it) is to understand the market to ensure that one is buying low, or entering low, and then monitoring returns to ensure that fund(s) are performing ok. This is critical to either system! Bottom line is that if one is holding or timing the goal of investing is success.

Knowledge is key to sucess. There are a lot of good books, and there are a lot of good web sites, there is a lot of good advice on this site. Tom (TSPTalk) gets a thumbs up for creating it. But, there is a lot of not so good advice out there, and in some casesthey will even charge you for it. But, where does one start, with this knowledge thing. A financial advisor from Fidelity told me to first understand "The Dow Theory". After that you can build your knowledge. You have to learn how to walk before learning how to run. This was the best advice I everrecieved.
:i

The Dow theory helps investors identify facts, not make assumptions or forecast. It can be dangerous when investors and traders begin to assume. Predicting the market is a difficult, if not an impossible game.

The Dow Theory is on the internet, and it is in this site under Recommended Readings. It doesn't take long to read it, it's in 3 parts.The Dow theory has been around for almost 100 years, yet even in today's volatile and technology-driven markets, the basic components of Dow theory still remain valid. Developed by Charles Dow, refined by William Hamilton and articulated by Robert Rhea, the Dow theory addresses not only technical analysis and price action, but also market philosophy. Many of the ideas and comments put forth by Dow and Hamilton became axioms of Wall Street. While there are those who may think that it is different this time, a read through The Dow Theory will attest that the stock market behaves the same today as it did almost 100 years ago.

My conclusion is that we do not have to re-invent the wheel, we just need to be informed investors, holders or timers.

.....................................................................................................................................

My analysis as a novice, and forecasts as seen on the internet, indicate that the present bull market is intact, and it appears positive for Friday 12-10. But, anything could happen.
I've tweaked my allocation distribution to 60c, 40s, to be effective next week. The C fund has been a good performer the last few days so I will go with the trend, till indicated otherwise.

Rgds. And be careful! Spaf

 

[Guest]

imported post

Great Post Spaf,

I find getting full in the market Halloween and get our Martin Luther King Days works greatly for me. You may want to look into that. Send me an e-mail and I will send you a site that has 65 years of data supporting that approach.

I do not like to take loses and things are just to frothy for me right now. The economic reports will sink in today and the fed fear factor MAY appear the last hour of trading today.

Good luck all!

Bill

 

[Spaf]

imported post

Sounds good to me, would enjoy seeing the site. Just left click on my user name.

Tks

You say "frothy"! Wasen't there a time where you could invest and not worry too much. Maybe just a dream I had, oh well. It's not mine to reason why........

Rgds. :? TGIF Spaf

 

[vectorman]

imported post

Looks like the I fund is near the support level going back to Nov., sure hope it holds.:?

 

[Spaf]

imported post

vectorman wrote:

Looks like the I fund is near the support level going back to Nov., sure hope it holds.:?

It passed my stop........ Maybe, out of gas?
The C fund kind of perked up, so I effected a re-allocation. "Plan B".

Rgds Spaf

 

[vectorman]

imported post

Just think if your a member of OPEC you can double dip by going short in the market knowing full well by voting to cut back production you'll benefit from it both ways.:^

 

[learning]

imported post

vectorman wrote:

Just think if your a member of OPEC you can double dip by going short in the market knowing full well by voting to cut back production you'll benefit from it both ways.:^

Oh heaven, do they have us good. We need to develop and encourage other sources of energy. In the Western States and around the U.S. they could give tax breaks for solar energy. Hydrogen energy can be done for vehicles, safely. OPEC controls and thus owns the market. Make no mistake about it.

P.S. By the way I forgot who brought up tomatos. They will go way down in a week or two. Florida's crop is on line again.:l

 

[coolhand]

imported post

For those of us who are really plugged in to the dollar and its effect on the global economy the below link has some real good commentary on the subject (read the first two articles). It is a round table discussion between some of Morgan Stanley's global economists about the weak dollarand many of the potential pitfalls that may befall the global economy. It is not really anything new to us here on this board, butit serves as a reminder of some very real problems that our own economymight face in the not too distant future.


http://www.morganstanley.com/GEFdata/digests/latest-digest.html

The "I" fund has taken it on the chin here this past week. I'm glad I stepped aside when I did, but for those of you who still have exposure to it keep in mind that it may be temporary. The conditions thatbrought the dollar to new lows lately have not disappeared. Comments to be made by Mr. Greenspan next week may have a significant bearing on how to play it.

 

[vectorman]

imported post

mlk_man wrote:

Show-me wrote:

Mike's rule "The 7 P's" -Proper prior planning prevents piss poor performance.

There's also mlkman's 7 p's : People posting post performance prices perform perfectly.............and : posting pre-market postures proves pre-existing plans, period.........ask MT..............:^

well said.:^

 

[Guest]

imported post

vectorman wrote:

mlk_man wrote:

Show-me wrote:

Mike's rule "The 7 P's" -Proper prior planning prevents piss poor performance.

There's also mlkman's 7 p's : People posting post performance prices perform perfectly.............and : posting pre-market postures proves pre-existing plans, period.........ask MT..............:^

well said.:^

Thank you, took me a week to think of that.............