Market Talk

Sort by newest Sort by date
Spaf

Spaf

Honorary Hall of Fame Member
imported post

The start of a new week!

Last week the stocks were up. The lower oil prices were a help along with some good economic data for the most part (with some exceptions). Hopefully, the stocks will continue to go up the rest of the year, and we wont have any events to derail the increases. As others have alluded to, December is traditionally a good month.

In my opinion the market changed from bear to bull around late October. How long it will stay that way, I really don't know. Hopefully for a long time. Do I have a exit strategy/plan if the market changes, yes I do!

My current allocations are in the TSP stock funds, including some I - fund holdings that I watch very closely.

Attached is a 6 month chart of the S&P with a 50 day moving average.

Regards and best wishes, but be careful! :) Spaf
 
imported post

Arnt ya gona share? :D

I have thought about it alot but do nothave a proven plan beings I'm new to this. When we see a "down turn" do you jump out or ease out?

I would think ease out unless it a big down turn.

Market Timer mentioned the "IRA Lemmings" flooding the market with their money before tax season. I never put it together until he mentioned it. Guess I learned something again. Watch out world!
 
imported post

Show-me wrote:
Arnt ya gona share? :D
Click to expand...
Sure I'll share! It is based in one of the sections in The Dow Theory in the Recommended Readings I left on this site

Show-me, One better,I'll send U a e-mail!
 
imported post

One thing is for sure, a bear market separates the one's with actual plans from the ones that just leave and then come back when the market is up again..........
 
imported post

That's why I'm ask'n Milk Man.

Mike's rule "The 7 P's" -Proper prior planning prevents piss poor performance.

Thanks Spaf. Good luck this week.
 
imported post

Show-me wrote:
Mike's rule "The 7 P's" -Proper prior planning prevents piss poor performance.
Click to expand...
There's also mlkman's 7 p's : People posting post performance prices perform perfectly.............and : posting pre-market postures proves pre-existing plans, period.........ask MT..............:^
 
imported post

Thanks Coolhand. To make already what the market traditionally provides for the month is not heartwarming. I say the OPEC meeting on Friday where expected reductions in production are to be raised (oil will continue to drop despite) and the FOMC (.25 raise due to a poor jobs report) on Tuesday are the 2 major events that will cause some temporary consolidation. So oil continuing to drop, expected rate hike, a continued dollar declineand a fair S&P market value of 1225 (3% still to gain).

What say you Tom. I'm not watching I. I'm all the way in. But the US market is still the best!
 
imported post

smedlap

Tom has already posted his comments!

He has a fairly good insite or position for a consolidation period in our continued bullish market. I have a job that sometimes takes me away from constant computer access. This is one of those sometimes.

I can go with Tom's position, and even allocate more towards the US funds.
I'll transfer tonight, for Monday at: 35G, 20C, 30S, and 15I.

..................................................................................................................

Did the transfer, and noticed something. I took Mike's M_M advice and sent all new monthly allocations to the G - Fund. There it was. Hey, Thanks Mike! Learn sumptin ever day :^!

Hey! Keep the posts going, enjoy, and be careful. Rgds :) Spaf
 
imported post

I came across this cruz'n the Asian Markets.

Associated Press
Mahathir Calls for Less Reliance on Dollar
Sunday December 5, 11:09 pm ET



Malaysia's Mahathir Urges Countries to Reduce Reliance on U.S. Dollar

KUALA LUMPUR, Malaysia (AP) -- Former Malaysian Prime Minister Mahathir Mohamad urged countries and companies Monday to curb their reliance on the U.S. dollar and increase their holdings in the euro and the yen.
"Euros, pounds and yen would be safer to keep than (the) U.S. dollar," Mahathir said in a speech to an East Asian conference of government officials and business leaders. "I would urge countries and businesses to switch to euro and yen (holdings) or buy gold."
Mahathir said the move would help countries from being hurt too much by oil price increases, which were considerably higher when measured in U.S. dollars compared to the other currencies.

Don't know how this guy rates in the world but will this cause a buzz? Hate to be a nay sayer. I don't write it.
 
imported post

Show-me
Hey, U ain't a nay sayer. Just talking! :^. Appreciate the post.
Keep talking!

Rgds :) Spaf
 
imported post

Show-me wrote:
Don't know how this guy rates in the world but will this cause a buzz? Hate to be a nay sayer. I don't write it.
Click to expand...
This is a very common view right now, but still one of speculation. It is entirely possible that the dollar could fall much lower if foreign holdings of our bonds and treasuries flee. It could be that they will just more or less maintain their positions and simply reduce their forex inflows. That would have a much less dramatic effect on the dollar in my view, but may still cause the dollar to drop some more,although at a much reduced pace vs a sell-off.

It's important to watch what the overseas markets are doing. Sometimes I think we must act on speculation if it appears to be justified, just like Tom did just prior to the election bymoving a large percentage of holdings into"G". But we have to be careful and weight the risk and that's not always easy to do.

Thanks for your input Show-me.
 
imported post

smedlap wrote:
Thanks Coolhand. To make already what the market traditionally provides for the month is not heartwarming.
Click to expand...
And that all came on the first day of the month! :shock:
 
imported post

Spaf wrote:
Did the transfer, and noticed something. I took Mike's M_M advice and sent all new monthly allocations to the G - Fund. There it was. Hey, Thanks Mike! Learn sumptin ever day :^!

Hey! Keep the posts going, enjoy, and be careful. Rgds :) Spaf
Click to expand...
You're swellcome..............:)
 
imported post

I'm staying pro market. If it takes a hit I will ride it out. I am only at 15% in the I fund and expect to go up to 20. I read the artical on the Santa Clause Rally. Thanks.

Here is a question.

I have most of my moneyin the stocks right now and that is a good thing. Now, my future contrabutions from my pay check, if you will, are mostly going to the G fund. Then when I do a trade, that money comes out and goes in with the rest of my money in the market as I feel comfortable. Some a very little amount is going into the stocks straight from my pay check. (None is going to the F fund for now. I have used the F fund and will use it this comming year, not now though.)

I was thinking of taking all future contrabutions and putting that into the G fund where it is safe, until I do a trade. Then when I trade it will gowith the rest of my money where I want it. I do not trade my money near as often during the year as some of you do. How do you invest your future money from the pay check?:*
 
imported post

learning wrote:
I was thinking of taking all future contrabutions and putting that into the G fund where it is safe, until I do a trade. Then when I trade it will gowith the rest of my money where I want it. I do not trade my money near as often during the year as some of you do. How do you invest your future money from the pay check?:*
Click to expand...
You can't do that learning, that's "my" strategy............:P
 
imported post

coolhand,

I agree. I retreated to the G around the election and it hurt a little when the market went up. I still think it was a good safe move. The continued currency decline is making me rethink my allocations. You guys in the I Fund have been kicking my butt since I got out. Nikkei and FTSE down so far today and USD looks slightly up against the Yen and slightly down against the Euro. If a pullback is coming this week feels like the right time. Even thou I think I personally will stay more aggressive than Tom. Thus according to Murphy's law making Tom's reasoning come true.

Looking forward to a new week. Good luck everyone! If your reading these posts you have started taking control of YOUR retirement or at least a interest. Likesomeone said (I thinkTom) the I fund had a 50% gain in 18 months and less than 1% of the TSP was there. CRAP neither was I until a few months ago when I started monitoring this site, thanks Tom.:^
 
You must log in or register to reply here.

Similar threads

TommyIV
March Contest In Progress
Replies
5
Views
240
rangerray
rangerray
JTH
  • Article Article
S&P 500: Week-7
Replies
0
Views
135
JTH
JTH
JTH
  • Article Article
Blog: Week-14's Hard-Stats
Replies
0
Views
138
JTH
JTH
JTH
  • Article Article
Blog: Week 11
Replies
0
Views
123
JTH
JTH
tsptalk
  • Article Article
TSP Talk - The PPI and tariff talk sent yields lower and stocks higher
Replies
0
Views
206
tsptalk
tsptalk
Back
Top