Market Talk

[Show-me]

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OOOOOOOOOK now. Was that the correction or is there more to come with those *&%$# in OPEC having a meeting Friday.How about the Silver and Gold prices. Ouch. Had a fewounces of silver to sell. Guess not now.I was going to write a post earlier about how I noticed the price of silver was rising against the decline in the dollar. I was wondering to myself if silver would decline as the USD came up.

O.K. I'm done. Good luck everyone.

 

[Spaf]

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Learning......There is always something in short supply. And everyone has to have it.

Was checking the Market Reports on USA Today, and here is what they had to say (in part):

"Sometimes the corrective process seems a lot worse than it is. ... I would caution investors to be rational here and understand that earnings growth is good; the bond market is in check; the Fed will still be raising rates but at a measured tone,"

 

[Spaf]

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As of lately there may be some confusion in where we stand in the market, and some terms that have been used of late. I am posting this for clairification:

Recession
A recession is defined, informally but not officially, as two consecutive quarters of negative real (inflation-adjusted) growth in the gross domestic product.
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Bull Market
Simply put, a bull market refers to a market that is on the rise. It is typified by a sustained increase in market share prices. In such times, investors have faith that the uptrend will continue in the long term. Typically, the country's economy is strong and employment levels are high.

Bear Market
On the other hand, a bear market is one that is in decline. Share prices are continuously dropping, resulting in a downward trend that investors believe will continue in the long-run, which, in perpetuates the spiral. During a bear market, the economy will typically slow down and unemployment will rise as companies begin laying-off workers.
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Current Market - primary movement as of 12-08-04
The current bull market started back in August 13, 2004 at the S&P level of 1060.72.
On October 25th the market made a secondary move or correction to a new higher low at 1090.19. When the previous peak of 1142.25 was surpassed on Nov 3rd., the
begining of a 2nd leg and a primary bull movement was confirmed.


Current Market Conditions as of 12-08-04 (Todays results)
This week the market recorded losses and gains and exibited a secondary move to correct. Some past daily fluctuations have been quick and steep. As of12-08 US Stocks ended with solid gains and good performance. The dollar was higher, metals lower, and oil under $42. Market sentiment was good. And, using theS&P500, prices were well above a 50 day moving average.

Rgds Spaf

 

[Guest]

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Good point...OPEC will reset the starting price of oil from $28 to $35 and they are pushing to cut production...if they get the oil pegged to the Euro from the U.S. dollar...stand by for heaving rolls.

Hmmm.

 

[Guest]

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Retail sales on the lower end retailers. That should be a caused for concern. Auto makersare not even moving thenew 2005 models and need to give deep rebates and5-6 year interest free to get them off the lots.

November job report, 112 jobs created. Over 165K people come into the work force a month. That means we are not even creating enough jobs for the new people joining the workforce.

A big big one. Is 1 Jan 05 the textile quotas for China are over....that means they will be able to flood our market with clothes, sheets, etc. That will mean a lot of lay offs in that industry here.

Personal income is not keep up with personal spending. Average workweek is down to 33.7 and hourly earnings increases are near 0%.

The above are just the items off the top of my head....but all of the above are not good for the U.S. stock market.

Good luck. Bash me but the point is people are spending money they do not have and Americans are holding record debt (as well of the government).

If the flat tax comes to pass...bail, bail, bail out ofstocks.

Spaf....good luck in your investments.

 

[Guest]

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The terrorist attacks (Spain/Saudi) are something I can not predict.

The Wall Street Journal of the U.S. Treasuries getting downgraded really hit the market hard on Tuesday. After 1 pm....boom (sort of speaking)

However the more the market goes down the money people will fund their ROTH/IRAs starting the first week of January. However the news moving forward (OPEC, Fed, etc) could not be helpful for the rally to continue.

However this is the time to be in the market. To win the pot you have to have chips on the table.

The F fund is a disaster waiting to happen. We had this situation in 2000...short term rates inverted over long term rates and we all know how that turned out.





mlk_man wrote:

smine wrote:

Remind me why I left 95% G to take a 2 day loss of nearly .50+ total?

Because MT said stay in until the end of Jan...................

 

[learning]

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MarketTimer wrote:

Good point...OPEC will reset the starting price of oil from $28 to $35 and they are pushing to cut production...if they get the oil pegged to the Euro from the U.S. dollar...stand by for heaving rolls.

Hmmm.

From what I have read. Iran and someother members are doing what you have said. The one exception to this is that they are not pushing to go off of the dollar. They are wanting to make up for it's devaluation. Saudi has said that they are not going to cut back and that they are not over worried about the cost of oil going down fast as it went up fast. It is also well above what they wanted. They also noted that the cold season is starting in the North. Saudi is the only country with the ability to put out extra oil. All the other countries are pegged. The big boys on the block are Saudi and Iran. See how this plays out.

 

[Guest]

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Learning,

Do not forget Russia. They are number 2 in production and their government has been goobling up their oil producers (hey you owe us taxes...give me your company). The talk of invading Iran is probably not going to put them ina friendly state at this meeting. The bottom line is they want all the money they can get (who can blame them). It costs them .50 a barrel to extract from the earth.

A couple of the folks I listen to say OPEC will push to be paid in Euros...especially if the U.S. treasuries are not rated triple AAA.

Remember Osams plan is to wreck us financially....we owe more then 7% of our GDP and are spending 20% more then we take in...inflation is all around (food, oil, insurance, etc, etc) however the U.S. government says inflation is 1.7% year on year. Yes, cars are down 12% year on year and computers are down 18% year on year but who goes to the car/computer store every week to buy a car or computer? I go to the grocery store every week andmy need a lay away program to buy them in the future. Green peppers have gone from .62 to 2.21 a pound in threemonths here. AND GUESS WHAT the new Homeland Security Bill proposes 100% of food coming into the country. That will raisefood prices greatly because nothing will keep clearing the inspection.

China is buying U.S. companies. Europeans are buying up U.S. real estate. WE are in very bad shape, in my opionion.

Good luck!

Bill

 

[learning]

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MarketTimer wrote:

Learning,

Do not forget Russia. They are number 2 in production and their government has been goobling up their oil producers....
.... Good luck!

Bill

I did forget Russia.:x That is why I love this sight.:!

 

[Guest]

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Yes and they are turning communist again. Interesting...

Putin will also have the right to fire and elect regional leaders. ...







Putin Justifies Policies
[size=-1]St Petersburg Times, Russia,Russia- Nov 18, 2004[/size]
[size=-1]... the popular vote for regional leaders, eliminating independent ... legislatures that twice refuse to support his picks. ... power over regional authorities," Putin said ... [/size]

 

[Rod]

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NOT a very impressive opening today.

 

[Guest]

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Tomorrow will be more of the same with the Opec meeting and then the CPI, fed and trade balance next week. This is the sweet spot to buy some stocks.

Look for one more good rally then a big drop off at point 23.

...I have been saying this all year and not going to stop now.

Rod wrote:

NOT a very impressive opening today.

 

[Guest]

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Rod wrote:

NOT a very impressive opening today.

 

[Paul]

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MarketTimer wrote:

China is buying U.S. companies. Europeans are buying up U.S. real estate. WE are in very bad shape, in my opionion.

Yea MT but that's what they all said about Japan in the 80's. They were buying up companies left and right because their economy was about to tank and they all knew it. China's in the same boat and if they can't fix it, they'll blow their economy right out of the water.

 

[Guest]

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Where does that put us?

80% of our debt is own by these guys.

We are below them. Your master is whoholds your debt.

 

[Paul]

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Masters are temporary if they can't run their ship.

 

[Guest]

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Paul wrote:

Masters are temporary if they can't run their ship.

Mutiny on the bounty? :^

 

[Guest]

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We are running our ship by spending 20% more then we take in....it appears our ship is going to run a ground.



Paul wrote:

Masters are temporary if they can't run their ship.

 

[Spaf]

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Why do we do the things we do?

Could be it all got started in a garden, a long time ago!

 

[Dakota]

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Spaf wrote:

Why do we do the things we do?

Could be it all got started in a garden, a long time ago!

spaf, things are turning don't you think its time to go all in like c and s